Last Week
Last week saw a bit of everything, with developments in the Iran conflict, updates on tariffs, and important macro data.
- Iran Conflict: Major economies agreed to release a record 400 million barrels of oil from reserves – enough to replace about 20 days of supply from the Strait of Hormuz. Still, with no end in sight to the conflict, Brent oil prices ($100 per barrel) remain about 40% higher than pre-conflict.
- Tariffs: U.S. Trade Representative Greer announced investigations into the country’s top 16 trading partners – a required step to eventually apply longer-term tariffs to replace the tariffs the Supreme Court found illegal.
- Macro: Most of the data is a bit stale since it predates the Iran conflict. But…
- Revised Q4 real GDP growth was cut in half to a 0.7% annualized pace on weaker trade and consumer spending and bigger hit from the government shutdown. Still, domestic demand stayed solid at a 1.9% growth rate.
- Real consumer spending grew +0.1% month-over-month in January, despite the snowstorm weighing on goods spending (-0.4%).
- And we got two inflation reports: January headline PCE inflation slipped to 2.8% year-over-year (YoY) from 2.9% as the contribution from core goods and energy slowed, while February CPI inflation was unchanged at 2.4% YoY.
The one bit of data that partly captures of the Iran conflict was University of Michigan’s preliminary March data for Consumer Sentiment, which slipped as consumers expect gas prices to rise in the next year.
Given the upward pressure on inflation from higher energy prices, 10-year Treasury yields are up about 10 basis points to 4.25% since March 6, though the Nasdaq-100® is flat.
This Week
Here are the top events I’m watching this week:
- Today: Industrial Production (Feb.)
- Wednesday: Fed Meeting, Producer Price Inflation (Feb.)
- Thursday: Jobless Claims
