Al Carns, a former Special Forces commander and current Labour MP for Birmingham Selly Oak, warns that Britain could face conflict with Russia within three to five years. He stresses the military remains unprepared amid rapidly evolving warfare tactics.
Distinguished Military Career
Carns joined the Royal Marines in 1999 and completed five operational tours in Afghanistan. He came close to death four times during service and earned the Military Cross in 2011 for gallant and distinguished actions. He later received the Companion of the Distinguished Service Order— the first with King Charles’s cypher— and an OBE. After 24 years, including time with the Special Boat Service (SBS), he now serves as minister of state for the armed forces.
Urgent Threat from Russia
Carns estimates the UK has three to five years to deter a significant confrontation with Russia, four years after its full-scale invasion of Ukraine. He states: “When it comes to deterring Russia, we have three to five years before we have to fight a significant confrontation with a major state, a geographically constrained conflict in some shape or form.”
The military, he argues, has not adapted sufficiently since the 1980s and 1990s. “We’ve got to move faster, and on everything,” Carns emphasizes.
Ukraine War Sparks Shift to Politics
The ongoing Ukraine conflict marked a pivotal moment for Carns. Summoned to Whitehall amid discussions on battlefield changes, he opted for politics over a promotion to brigadier, concerned that defense leaders failed to recognize warfare’s transformation.
Drones Reshape Modern Battlefields
Carns highlights drones’ dominance: a single unit now matches the lethality of 22 artillery shells, causing 87 percent of Ukrainian frontline casualties. He compares the shift to a farmer trading a scythe for a combine harvester.
“The army and the Marines are training a sniper to shoot one round 800 metres, from the point of aim to the point of impact,” he notes. “I could train my son in two weeks to kill you from 45 kilometres away with a fibre optic drone. So have we got the balance right?”
He campaigns vigorously for expanded drone and autonomous tech adoption, overlaid with AI. The force that integrates these effectively, Carns predicts, will prevail in future wars.
Ongoing Service and Advocacy
Carns remains discreet about his Special Forces operations, describing his Military Cross as a “team event.” As a parliamentary reservist, he recently finished Arctic training in Norway. He focuses on aiding service members’ transitions to civilian life, advocating “a hand up, not a handout.”
A divorced father to a 22-year-old daughter and sons aged 10 and 14, Carns views himself as proof of how state support turns potential troublemakers into productive citizens.
