This Week
The Strait of Hormuz is “completely open”!
That’s what Iran’s foreign minister said today and President Trump confirmed. The caveat being that this is for “the remaining period of the ceasefire” between Israel and Lebanon, which currently ends April 26.
This is the best sign yet that a near-term peace deal is possible, and President Trump has said such a deal is “very close” (though betting markets put the odds at 50-50 for a deal by April 30). As a result, U.S. oil prices are down to $85 per barrel – from nearly $115 just 10 days ago.
It’s also the start of first-quarter earnings season and, importantly, the big banks (which generally did well) noted that consumers have been resilient in the face of higher energy prices so far. Plus, two of the biggest names in chipmaking – TSMC and ASML – both beat on earnings and raised annual revenue forecasts on “extremely robust” AI demand.
So, with U.S.-Iran peace deal odds improving and first-quarter earnings off to a strong start, the Nasdaq-100® has posted gains for 13 straight sessions – including record highs the last 3 sessions – rising +6% this week (leaving it up +6% YTD). Meanwhile, 10-year Treasury yields are down over 5bp to 4.25%.
Next Week
Here are the top events I’m watching next week:
- Tuesday: Retail Sales (Mar.)
- Wednesday: TSLA Earnings (Q1)
- Thursday: S&P Manufacturing & Services PMIs (Apr. Prelim.), Jobless Claims
