Welcome back to World Brief, where we’re looking at potential U.S. military action against Iran, a reset in China-United Kingdom relations, and possible reengagement between Myanmar and the Association of Southeast Asian Nations.
Threats to the Iranian Regime
International pressure on Iran is heating up, with U.S. President Donald Trump weighing military action against Tehran and the European Union putting new sanctions on top Iranian officials following the Islamic Republic’s weekslong bloody crackdown on anti-government protesters.
Welcome back to World Brief, where we’re looking at potential U.S. military action against Iran, a reset in China-United Kingdom relations, and possible reengagement between Myanmar and the Association of Southeast Asian Nations.
Threats to the Iranian Regime
International pressure on Iran is heating up, with U.S. President Donald Trump weighing military action against Tehran and the European Union putting new sanctions on top Iranian officials following the Islamic Republic’s weekslong bloody crackdown on anti-government protesters.
On Wednesday, Trump announced that a “massive Armada is heading to Iran” that includes the USS Abraham Lincoln and several guided-missile destroyers. This armada is “ready, willing, and able to rapidly fulfill its mission, with speed and violence, if necessary,” Trump wrote on Truth Social.
But although his threats against Iran earlier this month were in response to the regime crackdown on protesters, Trump’s warning on Wednesday made no mention of that and focused instead on Iran’s nuclear program. “Hopefully Iran will quickly ‘Come to the Table’ and negotiate a fair and equitable deal – NO NUCLEAR WEAPONS – one that is good for all parties. Time is running out, it is truly of the essence!” he wrote.
The abrupt change in justification for potential U.S. military action has left many puzzled about what, exactly, the U.S. president is seeking to achieve in Iran. Trump’s insistence that “time is running out” also seems to contradict the White House’s own claims that the United States “obliterated” Iran’s nuclear program in a series of strikes in June.
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi has warned against U.S. action, and other Middle Eastern countries have cautioned that Tehran could launch preemptive strikes targeting U.S. military bases in the region. “Our brave Armed Forces are prepared—with their fingers on the trigger—to immediately and powerfully respond to ANY aggression against our beloved land, air, and sea,” Araghchi wrote on X on Wednesday.
Several countries in the region—including Egypt, Oman, Qatar, and Saudi Arabia—have lobbied the White House not to strike Iran, with Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman telling Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian that Riyadh will not allow its airspace or territory to be used for military action against Tehran.
Still, Iran appears not to be ruling out a U.S. attack. On Thursday, Iran warned ships in the region that it plans to run a live-fire drill in the Strait of Hormuz next Sunday and Monday, potentially disrupting traffic through the strategic waterway. Some experts have suggested that the exercise could be preparation for Tehran attempting to close the strait by force—an action that would likely elicit a U.S. military response.
And on Friday, Araghchi will travel to Ankara, Turkey, for talks aimed at de-escalating the crisis with Washington. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has also proposed mediating a video conference between Trump and Pezeshkian, though no formal talks have been agreed to.
Meanwhile, the EU has also taken broader actions against Iran. On Thursday, EU foreign ministers unanimously agreed to designate Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps as a terrorist organization, putting the elite paramilitary force in the same classification as al Qaeda, Hamas, and the Islamic State.
“Any regime that kills thousands of its own people is working toward its own demise,” EU foreign-policy chief Kaja Kallas wrote on X, adding in a separate statement that “those who operate through terror must be treated as terrorists.” At least 6,443 people have been killed since Iran’s protest movement erupted last month, according to the U.S.-based Human Rights Activists News Agency.
The EU also sanctioned 15 top officials and six organizations on Thursday for “serious human rights violations” in Iran, including those involved in monitoring online content during the government-imposed weekslong internet blackout.
Araghchi dismissed the EU’s actions as a “PR stunt,” writing on X: “Several countries are presently attempting to avert the eruption of all-out war in our region. None of them are European.”
Today’s Most Read
What We’re Following
Forecasting improved ties. British Prime Minister Keir Starmer and Chinese President Xi Jinping hailed a reset in relations on Thursday, calling for a “strategic partnership” to deepen bilateral ties amid a “turbulent and ever-changing international situation.” Although neither leader publicly mentioned Trump by name, the summit comes amid significant global turmoil caused by the U.S. president’s pursuit of his America First agenda.
Among the biggest agreements, Xi approved plans to establish 30 days’ worth of visa-free access for British citizens and halve Chinese tariffs on whisky from 10 to 5 percent. In exchange, British drugmaker AstraZeneca announced a $15 billion investment in China, and Starmer advocated for greater joint collaboration to address climate change.
This week’s four-day summit marks the first time that a British prime minister has visited China in eight years. Starmer has repeatedly stressed the importance of improving ties with Beijing amid growing domestic pressure to address the United Kingdom’s post-Brexit economic slump. However, national security and human rights concerns toward China—particularly surrounding the recent approval of a Chinese mega-embassy in London and the recent conviction of British citizen and pro-democracy activist Jimmy Lai—have ignited fierce criticism of the trip.
ASEAN’s softening position? Members of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) appeared to express a softened tone on Thursday toward Myanmar’s recent general election results. While the bloc stopped short of endorsing the controversial vote, Thailand signaled that ASEAN should adopt “calibrated engagement” with Myanmar’s junta-controlled government, even as Western nations and rights groups denounce the election as a sham.
During a multiphase vote that began on Dec. 28, the military-backed Union Solidarity and Development Party secured a landslide victory, which experts argue was aided by a ban on all opposition groups, widespread voter intimidation, and a lack of accessible polling locations. This was Myanmar’s first vote since the military seized power in February 2021.
Following that coup, the country has faced severe restrictions within ASEAN; its ruling junta leaders have been banned from high-level meetings, and Myanmar was stripped of its scheduled chairmanship, slated for this year. However, Thursday’s comments suggest that the bloc may be open to reengaging with Myanmar despite the junta’s continued control.
“We don’t anticipate Myanmar returning [to ASEAN] right away,” Thai Foreign Minister Sihasak Phuangketkeow told Reuters. “So that’s why we’re proposing that there’ll be a sort of calibrated reengagement where we have benchmarks.”
Tackling scam centers. Chinese authorities have executed 11 members of the Ming family criminal gang, state media reported on Thursday. The Ming are one of the so-called four families of Myanmar, whose mafia-like syndicates are accused of running hundreds of scam centers focused on internet fraud, prostitution, and drug production. Members of these four families also hold prominent local government positions aligned with Myanmar’s junta.
The 11 people executed were detained in November 2023 and sentenced to death last September; an appeal was denied in November. They were found guilty in the deaths of 14 Chinese citizens and of running fraud and gambling operations worth more than $1 billion.
According to a U.S. Institute of Peace report published in May 2024, scamming gangs in Southeast Asia steal more than $43 billion a year. Evidence suggests that many of the people working at these centers are trafficked there under false pretenses and that some of these groups are aligned with Chinese organized crime syndicates.
Odds and Ends
Scientists published new research on Monday identifying two artifacts found in Greece’s Megalopolis Basin that are believed to be the oldest wooden tools ever uncovered. The instruments—one of which is believed to have been used to dig through mud and the other for shaping stone tools—were discovered at a site dating back around 430,000 years. FP’s World Brief writer is thankful that tools have evolved enough to make shoveling more than 7 inches of snow off her D.C. balcony not too difficult of an affair.
