In 2019, Russian Overseas Minister Sergey Lavrov declared that “the den of terrorists have to be destroyed.” He was referring Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), the militant group whose chief, Ahmed al-Sharaa, simply met Russian President Vladimir Putin in Moscow on Wednesday.
Sharaa has been broadly praised as a pragmatist. However his pivot on Russia—a full accomplice in Bashar al-Assad’s violence towards each HTS and the Syrian folks—continues to be outstanding.
In 2019, Russian Overseas Minister Sergey Lavrov declared that “the den of terrorists have to be destroyed.” He was referring Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), the militant group whose chief, Ahmed al-Sharaa, simply met Russian President Vladimir Putin in Moscow on Wednesday.
Sharaa has been broadly praised as a pragmatist. However his pivot on Russia—a full accomplice in Bashar al-Assad’s violence towards each HTS and the Syrian folks—continues to be outstanding.
There isn’t any doubt that Damascus has a lot to achieve from the connection. Sharaa is in search of concrete assist, significantly weapons, that he urgently wants whereas additionally diversifying his community of alliances. Nonetheless, such a method will carry severe dangers. If it goes too far, Syria could face rising Western disapproval, in addition to a backlash from its personal residents.
Sharaa’s pragmatic dealings with Moscow started earlier than HTS took Damascus. As he defined in a current interview, “When our forces arrived at Homs, the Russians stepped again from the battle completely, withdrawing from the navy scene beneath an settlement.” Certainly, Moscow had redirected its focus from preserving a faltering Assad regime to defending its personal strategic pursuits in Syria—mainly the Hmeimim air base and the Tartus naval base, certainly one of Russia’s solely warmwater ports.
Since then, the brand new regime has allowed Russia to take care of entry to its bases. Russia, in flip, has continued to produce Syria with oil and wheat, and it’ll additionally print the nation’s new forex in December 2025. The brand new Syrian authorities additionally hopes that nearer ties with Moscow might immediate Russia, as a everlasting member of the Safety Council, to assist take away the United Nations’ terrorist designations on Sharaa and his former HTS associates.
Extra importantly, what Sharaa seeks now are defensive weapons that solely Russia can provide. After Israel destroyed roughly 85 p.c of Syria’s navy capabilities in December 2024, Sharaa’s military was left toothless: no air protection techniques and solely a restricted variety of tanks and fighter jets. For a rustic as threatened as Syria, whether or not by exterior actors corresponding to Israel and Iran or home opponents corresponding to Druze militias and the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces, a navy composed of personnel with out capabilities won’t assure stability or deterrence.
Turkey, as Sharaa’s essential backer, has offered some navy assist. But it surely stays cautious about delivering heavier weapons on account of Israeli fears of deeper Turkish entrenchment in Syria. And the US and its Western allies are unwilling to take action due to considerations about arming a navy drive implicated in two sectarian massacres this yr.
And so, on Oct. 3, a Syrian protection delegation led by the navy’s chief of employees visited Moscow, the place Russian officers introduced a spread of navy gear developed by their protection business. The techniques on provide included air protection techniques, fight drones, and armored autos. The go to positioned specific emphasis on superior air protection techniques designed to counter Israeli precision-guided munitions and drones—each of which have posed severe challenges to the brand new Syrian authorities in current months.
The burgeoning protection relationship represents a triumph of opportunism on either side. Throughout the civil warfare, Russia was Assad’s indispensable navy procurer, delivering a whole bunch of tanks and air protection techniques to the previous regime. Now, Moscow seems desirous to reprise that position—this time with a very totally different chief. It’s a testomony to Russia’s enduring technique to safeguard its bases in Syria, no matter who guidelines in Damascus.
Sharaa’s strategy can be a calculated one. Like many world leaders, he’s making an attempt a balancing act between Moscow and the West. President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, for instance, maintains Turkey’s membership in NATO but continues to purchase Russian gasoline and has even bought Russian air protection techniques. Sharaa seems to be following an identical playbook. He could hope that his outreach to Russia will create sufficient concern amongst Western leaders that they may drop a few of their extra stringent calls for over energy sharing and minority rights.
However as leaders like Erdogan have found, enjoying Russia and the West off one another could be tough. And it’s all of the tougher in a rustic the place many voters keep in mind Russian aerial assaults all too clearly.
The bloodshed and destruction that Russia has inflicted since 2015 stay deeply etched within the collective reminiscence of many Syrians. As one particular person put it in response to a current ballot, “The Russians killed half the Syrian folks, supported Assad’s regime till they destroyed our properties and killed us, so on what foundation ought to we reconcile with these legal Russians?”
For Sharaa, shifting nearer to Moscow would require shifting public opinion. If he succeeds in securing the superior navy techniques that Syria desperately wants, that will assist. Since Assad’s fall, Israeli airstrikes—greater than 700 between December and April alone—have fueled rising anger towards Israel. Sharaa might exploit that sentiment, presenting a stronger Russian partnership as a way to discourage Israeli assaults and defend sovereignty.
There are additionally exterior prices, though it stays to be seen how extreme.
Throughout his go to to New York for the U.N. Basic Meeting in September, Sharaa met with a number of high-level Western leaders, together with French President Emmanuel Macron. He additionally met with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, who agreed to restore diplomatic relations between Kyiv and Damascus. Nonetheless, if Sharaa now strikes nearer to Moscow, he dangers undermining all these diplomatic positive aspects. Members of the European Parliament have already urged Syria’s new authorities to ban Russia’s navy presence within the nation. In March, they launched an announcement calling on Syria to “break away from its infamous long-standing alliances with Tehran and Moscow.”
Israel, against this, could really feel extra comfortable with Damascus’s rising ties to Moscow. Again in February, Israeli officers reportedly lobbied Washington to protect Russia’s navy bases in Syria, seeing them as a counterbalance to Turkey’s rising affect over the brand new Syrian authorities.
Traditionally, Israel maintained a strong relationship with Russia throughout Moscow’s intervention to assist the Assad regime. The 2 nations established communication and deconfliction mechanisms, as Israel was primarily involved with Iran’s increasing navy footprint throughout Syria. At the moment, that concern seems to have shifted; Turkey has changed Iran as Israel’s main fear in Syria. Over the previous few months, Israel has drawn clear pink traces concerning Turkish navy entrenchment and has even struck websites that have been for use by the Turkish navy. Russia didn’t object to the strikes and is unlikely to object to elevated Israeli exercise sooner or later. Even when Sharaa says he’s in search of Russian weapons to defend towards Israeli airstrikes, Israel nonetheless would possibly want that to a strengthened Turkish presence.
Washington, for its half, has but to articulate a transparent coverage on the way forward for Russian bases in Syria. Hmeimim performs a strategic position in supporting Russia’s Africa Corps, whereas the naval base in Tartus provides the nation entry to the Mediterranean.
The Trump administration has additionally been ambivalent on punishing nations for his or her financial ties with Moscow. But Congress could properly transfer to reimpose sanctions if Syria acquires weapons techniques straight from Russia and its state-owned armed exporter. Most of the techniques beneath dialogue would meet the “important” transaction threshold beneath the Countering America’s Adversaries By way of Sanctions Act—whether or not as a result of they require substantial monetary dealings with Russia’s protection business or as a result of they symbolize a main improve of Syria’s navy capabilities.
Sharaa, in brief, is enjoying a dangerous recreation with the Russians. However then, nobody can say he’s naive about them.
