This Week
Hopes for a peace deal between the U.S. and Iran improved this week on reports the pair is working on a one-page agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and end fighting for 30 days to provide time to make a comprehensive deal. That was enough to push down U.S. oil prices to $95 per barrel from $105 on Monday, even as both sides attacked each other, while maintaining that the ceasefire is (nominally) intact.
But there were major economic developments, too:
- Another sign the labor market is stabilizing: The economy added +115,000 jobs in April – nearly double consensus estimates (+65,000) – including +123,000 in the private sector. This year, the private sector is averaging +86,000 jobs per month compared to +25,000 per month last year.
- Court deems Trump admin’s 10% global tariff illegal: The Court of International Trade ruled against the temporary 10% global tariff the Trump admin implemented to replace the illegal IEEPA tariffs. Unlike the IEEPA decision, however, this was narrow – only impacting Washington State and two companies (though it opens the door for others to sue). The Trump admin has already appealed.
- Nasdaq-100® on pace for +45% YOY Q1 earnings growth with 80% of companies reporting.
So, with mostly positive developments this week, the Nasdaq-100® rose +6% to a new record high, while 10-year Treasury yields fell a couple bp to 4.35%.
Next Week
Here are the top events I’m watching next week:
- Monday: Senate vote to confirm Fed Chair nominee Kevin Warsh
- Tuesday: CPI Inflation (Apr.), NFIB Small Business Optimism (Apr.)
- Wednesday: Producer Price Inflation (Apr.)
- Thursday: Retail Sales (Apr.), Trump-Xi Meeting (Day 1)
- Friday: Industrial Production (Apr.), Trump-Xi Meeting (Day 2)
