Welcome again to Overseas Coverage’s Latin America Temporary.
The highlights this week: A evaluation of the United States-Mexico-Canada Settlement will get underway, Colombia and China enhance ties amid growing U.S. strain, and Venezuelan opposition chief María Corina Machado travels to Norway to obtain the Nobel Peace Prize.
The Trump administration’s new Nationwide Safety Technique has raised eyebrows throughout Latin America for the way it describes the U.S. aim of dominating the Western Hemisphere. Referencing the nineteenth century Monroe Doctrine, the White Home pledged to field out exterior powers and reward international locations that align with Washington.
What’s nonetheless unclear, nevertheless, is how the Trump administration plans to attempt to obtain its said aim of an “economically stronger and extra refined” hemisphere on the subject of the most important algorithm governing U.S. commerce within the area: the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Settlement, referred to as USMCA.
A free commerce deal has been in place among the many three international locations since 1994. Many consultants argue that Trump violated USMCA, which changed the North American Free Commerce Settlement in 2020, together with his tariffs on Canada and Mexico this yr. However he has additionally granted each international locations some exemptions from U.S. levies due to the deal.
USMCA has a built-in evaluation course of after its first six years. The evaluation kicked off in latest weeks with consultations in all three international locations about whether or not officers and businesspeople wish to preserve, tweak, or scrap the settlement. The method is because of conclude by July 2026.
U.S. Commerce Consultant Jamieson Greer instructed Politico final week that the US is open to strolling away from USMCA completely if it feels that it’s not getting a good shake. Although congressional hearings this month revealed that U.S. lawmakers and companies had been broadly favorable to the deal, that doesn’t imply that the administration agrees.
Final Friday, Trump met with Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum and Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney on the sidelines of the 2026 Males’s World Cup attract Washington. Whereas Carney stated afterward that the three leaders agreed to work collectively towards renewing USMCA, the White Home didn’t instantly remark.
The combined indicators from the US are rattling Canada and Mexico, the place a profitable conclusion of the USMCA evaluation course of might finish uncertainties over Trump’s tariff threats. However a U.S. exit from the deal “can be catastrophic from an financial perspective and from a foreign-policy perspective,” stated Canadian commerce skilled Eric Miller, the president of the Rideau Potomac Technique Group consultancy.
The convenience of transit for items has helped the North American buying and selling bloc turn into one of many three fundamental financial poles of the world, alongside the European Union and the Asian Regional Complete Financial Partnership commerce bloc, Chilean scholar César A. Hidalgo writes. Key applied sciences equivalent to semiconductor chips are made with inputs, meeting, and testing from throughout North America, as are automobiles and medical gadgets.
Trump’s pledged dedication within the Nationwide Safety Technique to an economically sturdy Western Hemisphere might bode effectively for a USMCA renewal. However in case the US withdraws from or seeks to weaken the deal, each Mexico and Canada have spent the yr attempting to domesticate relationships with commerce companions past the hemisphere—and with one another.
The Canadian Council for the Americas, a outstanding assume tank the place Miller is a board member, launched a report final month laying out suggestions for Canada to associate with Latin American international locations in areas equivalent to essential minerals, agriculture processing, labor migration, and infrastructure.
Canadian officers and companies are participating extra with the area, beginning with Mexico. Canada is because of perform a commerce mission to the nation in February, with enterprise leaders scoping out alternatives. It is going to be one among Canada’s largest-ever such missions, its ambassador to Mexico stated this week.
Sunday, Dec. 14: Chile holds a presidential runoff election.
Saturday, Dec. 20: Mercosur heads of state attend a gathering in Paraguay that can also be anticipated to incorporate European Union officers.
Colombian President Gustavo Petro attends the opening ceremony of the Fourth Ministerial Assembly of the Discussion board of China and Group of Latin American and Caribbean States in Beijing on Could 13.Pedro Pardo/AFP through Getty Photos
Colombia in China. Colombian officers want to China for partnership, as relations with the US have soured amid spats between Trump and Colombian President Gustavo Petro. Trump has accused Petro of not working onerous sufficient in opposition to drug traffickers and stated this week that Petro might “be subsequent” in U.S. efforts concentrating on alleged trafficking in Latin America.
Colombia will maintain a presidential election in Could 2026. Bloomberg reported final week that at the very least three candidates traveled to Beijing this yr, though the publication didn’t reveal their identities. The journeys adopted Petro’s Could go to to China, throughout which Colombia formally joined China’s Belt and Street Initiative.
Different Colombian politicians are giving completely different indicators, nevertheless. Final month, conservative legislators visited Taiwan and stated Colombia deliberate to open an workplace within the nation—an announcement that was quickly denied by the Colombian Overseas Ministry. Regardless of the rebuttal, the ensuing tensions with Beijing led Petro to delay one other deliberate go to to China.
Kingpin technique, examined. For many years, hard-line anti-gang ways in Latin America have operated utilizing what the U.S. Drug Enforcement Company calls the “kingpin technique”: kill the chief to weaken the gang. However scholarly analysis lately, a lot of it in Mexico, has pointed to different conclusions—specifically, that killing a gang chief can enhance violence as legal teams scramble to fill an influence vacuum.
It’s uncommon to see multicountry quantitative research that look at this phenomenon throughout Latin America, however a brand new paper by Mount Mary College criminologist Patrick Burke does simply that. He checked out so-called management decapitation incidents in areas of Brazil, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, Mexico, and Venezuela between 2022 and 2024.
Burke discovered that the decapitations, whether or not perpetrated by safety forces or crime teams, had been related to a rise in battle deaths. In a departure from some scholarship from Mexico, his examine advised that when the federal government did the killing, it didn’t essentially mirror an influence vacuum dynamic as a result of the next deaths got here from gang-on-state battles.
General, Burke instructed Overseas Coverage, it might be smart for policymakers to work to forestall drug gangs from changing into so highly effective within the first place.
Main in model. Sheinbaum was one among simply two world leaders to seem on the New York Instances’s checklist of probably the most fashionable folks of 2025. (The opposite was Pope Leo XIV.) She favors attire and fits that function embroidery by feminine Mexican artisans, a lot of whom are Indigenous.
When commenting on making the checklist on Wednesday, Sheinbaum stated she hopes to alter the truth that some folks in Mexico look negatively on carrying a huipil, a tunic with embroidery.
Sheinbaum has additionally gone to bat in opposition to main clothes labels accused of appropriating Indigenous designs. Earlier this yr, she criticized Adidas for a design that appeared to knock off the Indigenous huarache sandal model of Indigenous Zapotecs. Adidas apologized for its design and pledged to have a “respectful dialogue” with the Zapotec group.
One other determine on the New York Instances most fashionable checklist was Puerto Rican musician Dangerous Bunny, who additionally put reggaeton again on the prime of Spotify’s most-streamed musicians checklist of 2025, dethroning Taylor Swift. Which of the next songs just isn’t from his 2025 album?
“Ojitos Lindos”
“Nuevayol”
“Debí Tirar Mas Fotos”
“Baile Inolvidable”
That music is from 2022’s Un Verano Sin Ti.
Venezuelan opposition chief and Nobel Peace Prize laureate María Corina Machado waves to supporters in Oslo, Norway, on Dec. 11.Odd Andersen/AFP through Getty Photos
Venezuela’s pro-democracy motion is within the worldwide highlight this week, as opposition chief María Corina Machado was awarded the Nobel Peace Prize in Oslo, Norway.
Machado has been in hiding since a short public look January. The federal government of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro has issued an arrest warrant in opposition to her, and the nation’s lawyer normal stated she would turn into a “fugitive” if she leaves Venezuela.
However earlier this week, Machado made a dramatic exit, touring by boat to Curaçao after which by aircraft to the US and Norway. Dangerous climate reportedly delayed her arrival, so she missed the Nobel award ceremony on Wednesday by just a few hours.
Machado’s daughter delivered her acceptance speech on behalf of Venezuela’s pro-democracy motion. Machado greeted supporters in Oslo shortly after arriving throughout the night time and gave a press convention on Thursday morning.
Since successful the prize, Machado has signaled assist for the potential use of U.S. navy energy to oust Maduro, prompting criticism from some peace activists. When requested Thursday whether or not she would assist a U.S. invasion of her nation, Machado didn’t straight reply the query, saying as an alternative that Venezuela had already been invaded by the affect of overseas powers equivalent to Russia and Iran.
Machado made a selected name for international locations that assist Venezuela’s pro-democracy wrestle to disclaim the Maduro authorities unlawful income from contraband of medication, oil, and human smuggling—a method that the US appeared to tackle Wednesday when it seized what it stated was a sanctioned oil tanker off Venezuela’s coast.
Politicians from throughout Latin America and from the US traveled to Oslo to honor Machado. The ceremony served as a vindication for the Venezuelan pro-democracy motion, Pedro Garmendia wrote in Caracas Chronicles, including that “our wrestle is neither fringe nor futile.”
