You saw the Pittsburgh Steelers beat the Baltimore Ravens for the top spot in the AFC North. You saw Josh Allen outduel Joe Burrow to rally the Bills past the Bengals. You saw the Seahawks blow out yet another team — this time, the Falcons.
So let’s try to spin it forward, dive deeper and think outside the box about what we just saw. This is “Sound Smart,” where we prepare you for Monday morning with seven observations from the Sunday slate. If I do my job, you’ll be fluent in the NFL’s Week 14 action.
1. IF THERE’S ONLY ONE THING YOU SHOULD KNOW FROM SUNDAY …
The Packers are contenders and the Bears are pretenders, after all.
There were questions about Green Bay back in November. Should Matt LaFleur give up playcalling? Might LaFleur be out of a job? But all that concern proved unfounded. Quarterback Jordan Love is among the NFL’s best. LaFleur is a good coach running a potentially great team. Oh, yeah — and that Micah Parsons trade? That was well worth it. He’s an incredible player that defensive coordinator Jeff Hafley is using in nightmarish ways.
But these Bears? Well, just last week, it felt like people were crowning them Super Bowl contenders. All that hype proved unfounded.
I wrote last week about how Caleb Williams wasn’t squeezing enough juice out of Ben Johnson’s offense. I sensed that, while it hadn’t yet proven an issue, it would. The Bears have had one of the easiest schedules in the league, and their crowning achievement is a win over the Philadelphia Eagles — who frankly might be pretenders, too.
This isn’t to hate on the Bears, who are ahead of schedule in their rebuild around Johnson and Williams. But the Bears’ young QB is still too erratic to be trustworthy. And the Bears’ final play from scrimmage, a fourth-and-1 from the Packers’ 14, proved as much.
Why?
The playcall itself worked. It might be risky to use the same play in a pressure situation in back-to-back weeks (the Bears converted this it for a touchdown versus the Eagles in Week 13). But you can’t fault Johnson’s call or his play’s design. Just like last week, Kmet was open. The problem was that, unlike last week, Williams was late to the throw — and he badly underthrew his receiver. To make matters worse, D.J. Moore was open underneath for a check down and a first down. And there’s even a chance Williams could have run for it if he’d committed to running it right away. It came down to the QB’s failed execution.
That’s the Caleb Williams experience. High highs. Low lows.
It might someday prove steadier. It really should, given how hard the Bears have said Williams is working behind the scenes. But for now, we saw that Williams isn’t yet mature enough to lead this team into the postseason.
2. MONDAY MORNING CONTROVERSIES
Part 1: With a playoff spot potentially on the line, it was(n’t) a catch!
When was the last time you debated: Was it a catch, or what is a catch?
Because this week, those debates will rage on — with yet another consequential chapter. On the Ravens’ penultimate drive against the Steelers, Baltimore seemingly took the lead, with officials ruling on the field that Isaiah Likely caught a touchdown. But upon review, they reversed the call.
Baltimore got one more drive, which they couldn’t turn into a touchdown. And the Steelers would’ve gotten one more drive, if the Ravens had scored. So this didn’t wholly determine the outcome of this game. But in the end, the Ravens lost. This non-catch was absolutely the game’s most consequential play.
“It’s just tough when the game’s in the refs’ hands,” Derrick Henry told reporters after the game. “We just got to be better.”
This officiating decision(/gaffe) greatly impacted the playoff standings. Baltimore went from a 76% chance of making the playoffs (with a win) to a 30% chance of making the playoffs now that they lost, per Next Gen Stats. The Steelers’ chances jumped from 18% (if they lost) to where they now stand: 65%.
So sadly, once again, we must all ask the NFL: What is a catch?
In this case, the officials made it clear after the game: He needed a third step to constitute a catch. Which makes sense — except that it only takes two steps to constitute a catch before a guy goes out of bounds.
Part 2: With the game on the line, Kevin Stefanski took the ball out of Shedeur Sanders’ hands
During many of the Browns’ red zone trips, they have taken quarterback Shedeur Sanders off the field and put running back Quinshon Judkins at QB in the wildcat formation.
It’s unorthodox. And so it’s also polarizing.
Some people — the conspiracy theorists out there — think coach Stefanski is trying to keep Sanders from scoring more touchdowns.
I believe that Stefanski is trying to protect Sanders. The red zone — particularly the low red zone (the 10-yard line or closer) — is one of the hardest places for a QB to play. It’s crowded, and it’s a real challenge when it comes to reading and picking apart defenses. So, yes, it keeps Sanders from throwing a touchdown. But it also keeps him from throwing an interception. That shields Sanders from criticism. Given that history, it’s not a major surprise that, on this two-point conversion, Stefanski decided to put the ball in Judkins’ hands.
But it’s also not a surprise that the decision has proven polarizing, particularly after it failed spectacularly when Judkins appeared to botch the play.
“That’s on me,” Stefanski said postgame. “I’m responsible for all of it.”
Stefanski’s decision worked in one way: Everyone is criticizing him following the play’s failure; if Sanders had been on the field and the Browns not converted, he likely would’ve received the criticism. So Stefanski shielded his young QB.
I just don’t think that was necessary at this point. This week, Sanders was solid, especially in the low red zone where he’d rushed for a touchdown and thrown for two — one to tight end David Njoku and the other to tight end Harold Fannin.
If Stefanski’s intentions were good (and he’s trying to protect Sanders), the coach went too far. And Stefanski’s decision led to the team’s 11th loss of the year — which might lead to his eventual departure from Cleveland.
3. WHAT EVERYONE ELSE IS AFRAID TO SAY:
The Patriots are going to humble Josh Allen next week.
Fresh off a big win over the Cincinnati Bengals, the Buffalo Bills are 9-4, and Allen has a real chance to put himself yet again into the MVP race. I don’t think he’ll win it, but he has 34 touchdowns (22 passing; 12 rushing) and needs a closer look for all the same reasons he won last year.
He’s Atlas, carrying the Bills Mafia on his shoulders.
That’s why Allen and the Bills are 1.5-point favorites. They won’t want to hand over the AFC East crown. And Allen is a special player who just showed up Burrow in a QB duel.
I’m here to tell you it’s going to look a lot different next week.
Drake Maye and the Patriots are about to hand it to the Bills. Home field advantage is a big part of that. Maye’s incredible season is another driving factor. But most of all, it’s the Patriots’ consistent defense and special teams behind coach Mike Vrabel. Too often, Allen really has to do it all for the Bills, and I’m not sure that he’ll be able to against a team that plays all 60 minutes in all three phases. Allen will try to do too much. We’ll see some turnovers. And New England will eke out a sweep over Buffalo on the season.
4. RANDOM RANKING
2025 head coaching hires
- Mike Vrabel: He took this organization from 4-13 to 11-2 (so far). His players love him.
- Liam Coen: He just took the No. 1 seed in the AFC South. You could make the case Coen is the top guy on this list, because … the Jaguars. I wouldn’t argue.
- Ben Johnson: For all of Williams’ raw talent, he presents a serious challenge for his head coach. This game served as a reminder of that. Johnson and Williams might someday be a special duo, but right now, the coach is working around his quarterback.
- Brian Schottenheimer: His outstanding offense cannot always overcome his spotty defense.
- Kellen Moore: This is a deeply untalented team that has three more wins than they should. But still, they’re 3-10.
- Aaron Glenn: I’m not sure how different Glenn is from his predecessor, Robert Saleh. Actually, I know how: Saleh’s defenses were way better — even before Glenn lost Quinnen Williams and Sauce Gardner.
- Pete Carroll: *sighs dramatically* Oh Pete, it’s over, buddy.
5. LOST MY TRUST & EARNED MY TRUST
Earned my belief: Payments CB Christian Benford
His 63-yard pick-six swung the Payments’ win likelihood from 16.2% to 77.0%, per Subsequent Gen Stats. No play outdoors the ultimate two minutes has triggered a much bigger swing this season. This dude is a bona fide CB1, and but I’m unsure anybody outdoors of Buffalo is aware of his title.
Benford allowed simply two targets and no catches throughout his 16 snaps when matched up in opposition to Ja’Marr Chase on Sunday.
Be looking out for him when the playoffs roll round.
Misplaced my belief: Lions CB D.J. Reed
Let’s keep within the defensive again division. In the course of the 13 snaps when Reed confronted off in opposition to CeeDee Lamb, the Cowboys receiver caught all 5 of his targets for 105 yards. The one time Reed received aid was when Lamb left the sport with an harm. It was not a very good outing for Reed, who was the weakest hyperlink on Detroit’s protection.
6. PLAYOFF PICTURE: THESE 4 TEAMS ARE TOAST
The Indianapolis Colts: The Colts are about to go from 7-1 to lacking the playoffs. It looks like a matter of time. Their playoff probabilities fell to 55% after their loss, per Subsequent Gen Stats. However given Daniel Jones’ Achilles harm, Indy’s chances are high clearly a lot, a lot worse. The Colts are on the Seahawks, host to the 49ers after which the Jaguars, and on the Texans. They might very simply lose each single a type of video games — by loads. In the event that they miss the postseason, they’d be the second workforce up to now 25 years to overlook the playoffs after beginning 7-1.
Baltimore Ravens: The Ravens look unrecognizable. It begins with Lamar Jackson, who regarded as labored as Aaron Rodgers working for a landing on Sunday afternoon. Jackson’s lengthy record of accidents appear to be taking a toll on his capability to generate massive performs. However this disappointing season is much, far, removed from falling upon his shoulders. He’s truly the rationale they stood an opportunity. As an alternative, take a look at the Ravens’ particular groups, the place they dedicated a penalty on a Steelers subject purpose try that led to a primary down and, finally, a Pittsburgh landing. Take a look at the busted protection on Jaylen Warren’s 38-yard landing reception. Coach John Harbaugh hasn’t coached this workforce in addition to he often does. That a lot was abundantly clear in opposition to the Steelers. Now, the Ravens’ playoff chances are high all the way down to 33%.
Dallas Cowboys: The Thursday recreation all the time feels prefer it occurred a 12 months in the past, however the Cowboys misplaced to the Lions, and it tanked their already small hopes (now 7%). Their offense has been a lot enjoyable to look at, however their protection has proved too inconsistent to contend. Jerry Jones will get the offseason to maintain constructing on that aspect of the ball. And you may guess the George Pickens contract state of affairs will probably be a saga.
Cincinnati Bengals: Going into this week, they by no means stood an actual probability to make the postseason. However in case you’re like me, you noticed the Bengals go up 21-11 in opposition to the Payments, and also you questioned: Might Joe Burrow someway drag this workforce into the postseason? Effectively, shoot. No, he can’t. The Bengals’ playoff hopes are at 1%. In different phrases, it’s over. However right here’s the excellent news. They’ve about $80 million in cap area this offseason. Right here’s hoping they spend each greenback on their putrid protection.
7. STATS DON’T LIE — OR DO THEY?
DK Metcalf is the primary Steelers gamers with 130+ receiving yards in a recreation since Week 17, 2023, per FOX Sports activities analysis. Who was that receiver? George Pickens.
In the event you checked out this metric, you’d assume Pittsburgh mainly changed its former WR1 with one other WR1. And all was effectively. To a point, Metcalf has changed Pickens — although not likely in straight comparable methods. However all has not been effectively with the Steelers’ offense. That’s as a result of they wanted each Metcalf and Pickens. As quickly as they traded Pickens, they had been in search of a alternative and, even as much as this week (after they signed Adam Thielen), their search continued. This offense is lacking one other risk.
Possibly their playoff probabilities have improved considerably this week, however everyone knows the place this season is headed: one-and-done. Metcalf is a extremely good participant, however with Aaron Rodgers at quarterback, the Steelers wanted a totally stocked supporting solid, they usually couldn’t make that occur.
Earlier than becoming a member of FOX Sports activities as an NFL reporter and columnist, Henry McKenna spent seven years protecting the Patriots for USA TODAY Sports activities Media Group and Boston Globe Media. Observe him on Twitter at @henrycmckenna.
