Why Democrats and Republicans are watching Tennessee’s particular election for Congress : NPR

A congressional particular election in Tennessee has grow to be the newest battleground for Democrats and Republicans searching for to craft a profitable message forward of the 2026 midterms.

Traditionally, Tennessee’s seventh Congressional District is a reasonably conservative district that gave President Trump roughly 60% of the vote final November. Former Rep. Mark Inexperienced, who resigned in July, gained by the same margin.

However in more moderen historical past, Democrats have overperformed their 2024 margins in particular elections this yr by an common of 13% and are coming off a string of high-profile victories in races up and down the poll final month.

That dynamic means the race between Republican former state Division of Normal Providers Commissioner Matt Van Epps and Democratic state Rep. Aftyn Behn has captured nationwide consideration within the closing weeks of the marketing campaign.

In remaining stretch, outdoors cash floods race

In keeping with the newest Federal Election Fee information, outdoors teams have spent greater than $6.5 million on the race, together with greater than $1.6 million from the pro-Trump MAGA Inc. tremendous PAC. Two-thirds of the overall tremendous PAC spending has come within the final two weeks of the race as early voting picked up in earnest.

Scant public polling of a sometimes lower-turnout particular election coupled with a much less dependable sense of who will make up the voters has additionally added stress on each events to squeeze out each vote in what may very well be a decent race.

An Emerson Faculty ballot launched final week discovered Van Epps barely forward of Behn however inside the margin of error amongst voters surveyed. Surveys launched in October from Democratic-aligned corporations confirmed Van Epps with an 8-point benefit, roughly in step with the common Democratic particular election overperformance this yr.

Campaigns give attention to value of residing

The closing dash of the race has seen a slew of surrogates make marketing campaign stops and digital appearances to assist the candidates. Former Vice President Kamala Harris and Democratic Nationwide Committee Chairman Ken Martin attended canvassing occasions for Behn final month, whereas former Vice President Al Gore and Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez headlined a Zoom rally Monday night.

Home Speaker Mike Johnson held a get-out-the-vote rally Monday morning for Van Epps that featured Trump calling on speakerphone to proclaim that the “complete world is watching Tennessee proper now.”

Each events are making affordability a prime situation within the race, particularly on the airways. Van Epps has embraced Trump’s endorsement whereas additionally focusing his closing message on the financial system.

In a single advert, Van Epps decried “profession politicians” and promised to “carry down costs, create good paying jobs, and decrease well being care prices for working households.”

Behn’s closing advert promised that she would “shake up Washington” by “making well being care extra reasonably priced, bringing down the price of residing, and shield employees and small companies from job-killing tariffs.”

Throughout a Monday night phone rally for Van Epps, Trump dismissed affordability as one thing Democrats talked about to distract from what he stated are his administration’s quite a few accomplishments.

“They like to speak about affordability,” Trump stated within the Monday night tele-rally for Van Epps. “To them it is only a con job, it is only a phrase.”