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Democrat Mikie Sherrill defeated Republican Jack Ciattarelli within the New Jersey gubernatorial race, powered by sturdy help from Black voters, girls, and youthful voters. Her victory secures Democrats a 3rd straight time period within the governor’s workplace — the primary time that’s occurred since 1961 — reflecting the state’s enduring blue tilt regardless of latest Republican good points.
Preliminary knowledge from the Fox Information Voter Ballot, a survey of greater than 4,400 registered New Jersey voters, confirmed Sherrill carried out nicely with Black voters, voters underneath age 30, girls, and school diploma holders.
There was additionally a 20-point gender hole: about 6 in 10 girls backed Sherrill whereas about 5 in 10 males favored Ciattarelli. Sherrill’s domination amongst girls continued throughout all age teams, along with her highest degree of help coming from girls underneath 30.
New Jersey feminine voters overwhelmingly favored Mikie Sherrill over her GOP opponent Jack Ciattarelli. (Fox Information)
Whereas Republicans have made good points amongst younger males in latest elections, youthful males in New Jersey sided with the Democrat this time.
Male voters in New Jersey had been principally break up 50-50 between Democratic candidate Mikie Sherrill and GOP candidate Jack Ciattarelli. (Fox Information)
The gender divide additionally prolonged to folks: mothers broke for Sherrill almost 2 to 1 whereas dads most popular Ciattarelli by somewhat over 10 factors.
Sherrill’s multiracial coalition proved essential to her win: she acquired help from over 9 in 10 Black voters and virtually 7 in 10 Hispanic voters.
Hispanic voters – who’ve been a spotlight of Republican courtship in recent times – didn’t help Republicans as a lot as they hoped. In the end, they sided with the Democrats by over 30 factors. White voters total broke for Ciattarelli, largely fueled by a 20-point hole in his help amongst White males. White girls intently divided their vote between Sherrill and Ciattarelli, with marginally extra favoring the Democrat.
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The vast majority of voters with a school diploma backed Sherrill, whereas voters with out a diploma barely favored Ciattarelli. Ciattarelli carried the Republican stronghold of White males with out a school diploma by over 40 factors.
Consultant Mikie Sherrill, Democratic gubernatorial candidate for New Jersey, throughout an election evening occasion in East Brunswick, New Jersey, US, on Tuesday, Nov. 4, 2025. (Michael Nagle/Bloomberg by way of Getty Photographs)
Each candidates benefitted from the help of over 9 in 10 voters amongst their respective events. Among the many essential swing group of independents, Sherrill was favored by simply over half. Further help from 6 in 10 self-described moderates supplied her with the enhance wanted to win statewide.
About half of New Jersey Republicans recognized as MAGA, they usually almost all threw their help behind Ciattarelli.
For 1 in 10 voters, this was the primary time they voted in a gubernatorial election, they usually backed Sherrill by 2 to 1.
Regardless of Sherrill’s Navy background, over half of army households voted for Ciattarelli. Amongst union households, Sherrill narrowly held on to Democratic help, taking simply over half.
DEMOCRAT MIKIE SHERRILL WINS NEW JERSEY GOVERNOR RACE, KEEPS STATE BLUE AGAINST REPUBLICAN CHALLENGE
By a 2 to 1 margin, extra voters have a unfavorable view of how issues are going within the nation at present than a optimistic view. These voters strongly broke for Ciattarelli.
Even with Trump off the poll, his presence nonetheless performed a defining position within the election. About 7 in 10 Sherrill supporters mentioned their vote was to ship a message of opposition to President Trump, whereas a few quarter of Ciattarelli voters mentioned their vote was in help of the president.
The highest cause New Jerseyans gave for backing Mikie Sherrill was opposition to Trump. (Fox Information)
Trump’s approval ranking amongst Backyard State voters is underwater, with over half saying they disapprove.
Among the many nationwide events, views of the Democratic Get together are break up down the center, whereas views of the Republican Get together lean unfavorable.
Problems with affordability clearly dominated voter issues, with taxes coming in on the high, intently adopted by the financial system. Voters prioritizing taxes broke for Ciattarelli by over 20 proportion factors, whereas voters who prioritized the financial system favored Sherrill by a barely wider margin. For voters who noticed healthcare as a high situation, Sherrill acquired the majority of help.
Almost a 3rd of New Jersey voters mentioned the financial system was an vital situation for the state. (Fox Information)
Almost all voters mentioned property taxes had been not less than a minor drawback the place they dwell, and seven in 10 known as it a significant drawback.
Greater than two-thirds of New Jersey voters mentioned property taxes had been a “main drawback.” (Fox Information)
Rising electrical energy prices additionally loomed giant within the race, with almost 9 in 10 voters indicating it was an issue. Voters who mentioned each property taxes and electrical energy prices had been a significant drawback had been extra apt to help Ciattarelli, whereas those that solely categorised it as a minor drawback supported Sherrill.
Preventing in opposition to these rising prices, voters understandably had a extra pessimistic outlook on the state’s financial system than optimistic. About 6 in 10 who’ve a unfavorable view voted for Ciattarelli, and three out of 4 with a optimistic outlook backed Sherrill.
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In opposition to this financial backdrop, 1 in 4 New Jersey voters mentioned they’re falling behind financially. The most important quantity, 6 in 10, mentioned they’re holding regular, and solely a small fraction report they’re getting forward. For the quarter of voters falling behind, Sherrill acquired majority help, whereas voters who’re holding regular break up their help about evenly between the candidates.
Voters are break up on whether or not the following governor ought to cooperate with the Trump administration on immigration enforcement. However in response to the administration’s present actions, over half of voters assume it’s gone too far, whereas about 3 in 10 say it’s about proper.
Voters within the Backyard State mentioned bringing wanted change, sharing their values, and dealing for folks like them had been among the most vital candidate qualities in deciding their vote. Change-motivated voters went for Ciattarelli, whereas those that prioritized worth sharing and dealing for folks like them favored Sherrill 2 to 1.
New Jerseyans mentioned their greatest motivator within the gubernatorial election was bringing change. (Fox Information)
The accusations about Sherrill’s Naval Academy commencement did not dissuade voters from supporting her, as voters who prioritized honesty favored Sherrill by greater than 40 factors. Extra voters thought she ran a principally truthful marketing campaign than thought Ciattarelli’s marketing campaign was principally truthful. Sherrill additionally benefitted from a net-positive favorability ranking, with over half of Backyard State voters ranking her favorably. The impression of a unfavorable marketing campaign cycle might have damage Ciattarelli — about half of voters felt he ran a principally unfair marketing campaign and have an unfavorable view of the Republican.
Greater than half of New Jerseyans regarded Mikie Sherrill’s marketing campaign as truthful. (Fox Information)
Amid this heated race for governor, political corruption was on the thoughts of many New Jersey voters, with 9 in 10 figuring out it as not less than a minor drawback. Those that noticed it as a significant drawback had been extra more likely to facet with Ciattarelli, whereas those that noticed it as solely a minor drawback favored Sherrill.
Solely round half of New Jersey voters thought Jack Ciattarelli’s marketing campaign in opposition to Mikie Sherill was truthful. (Fox Information)
By a 2 to 1 margin, extra Sherrill voters mentioned their vote was in help of their candidate than in opposition to their opponent. Ciattarelli voters had been much more enthusiastic, with 8 in 10 voting in help of the Republican.
Among the many late-deciding voters, Sherrill was favored by virtually 7 in 10.
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Time period-limited Democratic Gov. Phil Murphy’s job ranking is underwater as he prepares to depart workplace. After over a decade of Democratic management, roughly 1 in 5 Democrats disapprove of the job he’s accomplished as governor. Independents have combined emotions, with about equal numbers approving as disapproving, and almost all Republicans disapprove.
METHODOLOGY
The Fox Information Voter Ballot relies on a survey performed by SSRS with New Jersey registered voters. This survey was performed October 22 to November 4, 2025, concluding on the finish of voting on Election Day. The ballot combines knowledge collected from registered voters on-line and by phone with knowledge collected in-person from Election Day voters at 30 precincts per state. Within the last step, all of the pre-election survey respondents and Election Day exit ballot respondents are mixed by adjusting the share of voting mode (absentee, early-in-person, and Election Day) primarily based on the estimated composition of the state last voters. As soon as votes are counted, the survey outcomes are additionally weighted to match the general ends in every state. Outcomes amongst all greater than 4,400 New Jersey voters interviewed have an estimated margin of sampling error of plus or minus 2.1 proportion factors, together with the design results. The error margin is bigger amongst subgroups.
