If the advertisements are any indication, Proposition 50 affords Californians a stark selection: “Stick it to Trump” or “throw away the structure” in a Democratic energy seize.
And like so many issues in 2025, Trump seems to be the galvanizing difficulty.
Even by the incendiary campaigns California is used to, Proposition 50 has been notable for its sharp assaults to chop by way of the dense, esoteric difficulty of congressional redistricting. It comes all the way down to a fundamental reality: it is a Democratic-led measure to reconfigure California’s congressional districts to assist their celebration win management of the U.S. Home of Representatives in 2026 and stifle President Trump’s makes an attempt to maintain Republicans in energy by way of comparable means in different states.
So far, the anti-Trump message preached by Proposition 50 advocates, led by Gov. Gavin Newsom and different prime Democrats, seems to be the best.
Supporters of the proposal have vastly outraised their rivals and Proposition 50, one of the vital costly poll measure campaigns in state historical past, leads within the polls.
“At any time when you may take a problem and personalize it, you could have the benefit. On this case, proponents of fifty could make all of it about stopping Donald Trump,” mentioned former legislative chief and state GOP Chair Jim Brulte.
Including to the drama is the position of two political and cultural icons who’ve emerged as leaders of every aspect: former President Obama in favor and former Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger towards, each arguing the very essence of democracy is at stake.
Schwarzenegger and the 2 essential committees opposing Proposition 50 have centered on the moral and ethical crucial of preserving the impartial redistricting fee. Californians in 2010 voted to create the panel to attract the state’s congressional district boundaries after each census in an effort to offer truthful illustration to all state residents.
That’s not a political very best simply defined in a 30-section tv advert, or an Instagram publish.
Redistricting is a “advanced difficulty,” Brulte mentioned, however he famous that “the no aspect has the burden of attempting to elucidate what the initiative actually does and the sure aspect will get to make use of the crib notes [that] that is about stopping Trump — a a lot simpler path.”
Partisans on either side of the aisle agree.
“The sure aspect rapidly leveraged anti-Trump messaging and has been closing with direct base appeals to lock within the lead,” mentioned Jamie Fisfis, a political strategist who has labored on many GOP congressional campaigns in California. “The partisanship and excessive consciousness behind the measure meant it was unlikely to sag underneath the burden of unfavorable promoting like different initiatives usually do. It’s been a turnout sport.”
Obama, in advertisements that aired throughout the World Sequence and NFL video games, warned that “Democracy is on the poll Nov. 4” as he urged voters to assist Proposition 50. Adverts for essentially the most well-funded committee opposing the proposition featured Schwarzenegger saying that opposing the poll measure was essential to making sure that residents aren’t overrun by elected officers.
“The Structure doesn’t begin with ‘We, the politicians.’ It begins with ‘We, the individuals,’” Schwarzenegger informed USC college students in mid-September — a speech excerpted in an anti-Proposition 50 advert. “Democracy — we’ve obtained to guard it, and we’ve obtained to go and battle for it.”
California’s Democratic-led Legislature voted in August to place the redistricting proposal that may seemingly enhance their ranks in Congress on the November poll. The measure, pushed by Newsom, was an effort to counter Trump’s efforts to extend the variety of GOP members within the Home from Texas and different GOP-led states.
The GOP holds a slender edge within the Home, and subsequent 12 months’s election will decide which celebration controls the physique throughout Trump’s last two years in workplace — and whether or not he can additional his agenda or is the main focus of investigations and attainable impeachment.
Noticeably absent for California’s Proposition 50 battle is the one who triggered it — Trump.
The proposition’s opponents’ determination to not spotlight Trump is unsurprising given the president’s deep unpopularity amongst Californians. Greater than two-thirds of the state’s seemingly voters didn’t approve of his dealing with of the presidency in late October, in line with a Public Coverage Institute of California ballot.
Trump did, nonetheless, urge California voter to not forged mail-in ballots or vote early, falsely arguing in a social media publish that each voting strategies have been “dishonest.”
Some California GOP leaders feared that Trump’s pronouncement would suppress the Republican vote.
In latest days, the California Republican Social gathering despatched mailers to registered Republicans shaming them for not voting. “Your neighbors are watching,” the mailer says, that includes an image of a lady peering by way of binoculars. “Don’t let your neighbors down. They’ll discover out!”
Tuesday’s election will price state taxpayers almost $300 million. And it’s unclear if the end result will make a distinction in command of the Home due to a number of redistricting efforts in different states.
However some Democrats are torn concerning the sum of money being spent on an effort that will not alter the partisan make-up of Congress.
Johanna Moska, who labored within the Obama administration, described Proposition 50 as “irritating.”
“I simply want we have been spending cash to rectify the state’s issues, if we found out a approach the state may very well be inexpensive for individuals,” she mentioned. “Gavin’s discovered what’s working for Gavin. And that’s resistance to Trump.”
Newsom’s efforts opposing Trump are considered as a foundational argument if he runs for president in 2028, which he has acknowledged pondering.
Proposition 50 additionally turned a platform for different politicians doubtlessly eyeing a 2026 run for California governor, Sen. Alex Padilla and billionaires Rick Caruso and Tom Steyer.
The sector is in flux, with no clear front-runner.
Padilla being thrown to the bottom in Los Angeles as he tried to ask Homeland Safety Secretary Kristi Noem concerning the Trump administration’s immigration insurance policies is prominently featured in tv advertisements selling Proposition 50. Steyer, a longtime Democratic donor who briefly ran for president in 2020, raised eyebrows by being the one speaker in his second tv advert. Caruso, who unsuccessfully ran towards Karen Bass within the 2022 Los Angeles mayoral race and is reportedly contemplating one other political marketing campaign, just lately despatched voters shiny mailers supporting Proposition 50.
Steyer dedicated $12 million to assist Proposition 50. His preliminary advert, which reveals a Trump impersonator rising more and more irate as information studies displaying the poll measure passing, first aired throughout “Jimmy Kimmel Reside!” Steyer’s second advert totally centered on him, elevating hypothesis a couple of potential gubernatorial run subsequent 12 months.
Adverts opposing the proposition aired much less regularly earlier than disappearing from tv altogether in latest days.
“The sure aspect had the benefit of casting the query for voters as a referendum on Trump,” mentioned Rob Stutzman, a GOP strategist who labored for Schwarzenegger however shouldn’t be concerned with any of the Proposition 50 campaigns. “Asking individuals to rally to the polls to save lots of a authorities fee — it’s not a rallying name.”
