Welcome to Overseas Coverage’s Southeast Asia Transient.
The highlights this week: ASEAN’s summit makes Kuala Lumpur a geopolitical hub, Laos considers chopping energy to crypto miners, a royal child is introduced in Brunei, and rip-off gangs’ state ties are uncovered in Cambodia.
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This yr’s summit of the Affiliation of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) runs this Sunday, Oct. 26, by way of Tuesday. The U.S.-China commerce warfare would be the important merchandise on the agenda, with an anticipated bilateral dialogue of uncommon earths occuring on the sidelines.
ASEAN has its personal priorities too, together with the admission of a brand new member, Timor-Leste.
An unusually distinguished lineup of anticipated visitors consists of U.S. President Donald Trump, Chinese language Premier Li Qiang, Russian President Vladimir Putin, Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, South African President Cyril Ramaphosa, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, and Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni.
World leaders appear to love that the bloc tends to be resolutely neutral in geopolitics, and they’re additionally eager to domesticate friendships in a area central to the worldwide financial system.
Nonetheless, probably the most consequential assembly will not be between leaders however, somewhat, a deliberate dialogue between U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Chinese language Vice Premier He Lifeng.
The pair will focus on China’s sweeping restrictions on exports of uncommon earths and merchandise utilizing them. Trump has responded by threatening new one hundred pc tariffs on China in addition to controls on exports of software program to China.
Bessent and He can even set the tone for a potential assembly between Trump and Chinese language President Xi Jinping. Trump has prompt that this can happen on the upcoming Asia-Pacific Financial Cooperation summit in South Korea, which will likely be held from Oct. 31 to Nov. 1. (Xi, as standard, just isn’t attending the ASEAN summit.)
For the ASEAN summit, Trump has mentioned that he’ll solely attend if he can preside over the signing of a peace deal between Cambodia and Thailand to cement a cease-fire that he says he performed a task in brokering.
And, oh—China can’t be within the room when it occurs, on the request of White Home officers.
Whether or not the peace deal will go forward appears unsure. As I wrote final week, negotiations between the 2 nations appear to be breaking down. Thailand’s prime minister has additionally indicated that he’s not in additional U.S. involvement.
ASEAN itself is targeted on coping with the repercussions of the US changing into an financial rogue state.
Makes an attempt to coordinate on this have been restricted to this point, with international locations stampeding to chop particular person offers with Trump.
What’s scheduled—an improve of ASEAN’s commerce cope with China and the adoption of the bloc’s new digital financial framework—just isn’t going to set the world on fireplace. Nonetheless, it does point out the course of journey: hedging towards the US by integrating each internally and with exterior companions.
What’s buzzier is the expectation that the ASEAN Energy Grid might lastly decide up momentum.
The concept of regional integration of electrical energy grids has been knocking round for the reason that Nineteen Eighties. However the challenges of decarbonization have given the concept new impetus: rain affecting photo voltaic panels in Thailand may very well be balanced by a sunny day in Vietnam.
Any developments right here might invigorate the sluggish and piecemeal power tasks which can be already underway throughout the area, although a challenge this massive stays a really long-term endeavor. It’s value noting that ASEAN’s largest nation, Indonesia, doesn’t also have a single nationwide grid.
Final however not least, Timor-Leste is lastly becoming a member of ASEAN. The 2-decade course of as soon as prompted President José Ramos Horta to complain that it was simpler to get into heaven than ASEAN. Some assume that Timor’s accession would possibly bolster ASEAN’s democratic camp, and the US might profit from the nation’s inclusion within the bloc.
Nevertheless, the factor to observe is Timor’s place on Myanmar. Run by former revolutionaries, Timor-Leste has been vocally sympathetic to the Nationwide Unity Authorities at present preventing Myanmar’s ruling junta. However lately, Dili’s push for ASEAN accession has seen a softening of its line on the navy rulers. What occurs when Timor-Leste is within the tent?
Laos says no to crypto. Laos’s authorities is contemplating ending the availability of electrical energy to cryptocurrency miners within the first quarter of 2026, based on reporting by Reuters.
The federal government mentioned it was planning to prioritize energy for sectors that will contribute extra to the financial system—such synthetic intelligence knowledge facilities, metals refining, and electrical automobiles.
The transfer represents a pointy shift in technique from the nation, which has seemed to crypto to monetize its huge hydroelectric energy potential—potential that has seen it dubbed the “battery of Asia.”
Laos’s entanglement with crypto kicked off in 2021, when the federal government introduced that it will permit crypto corporations to mine and promote within the nation whereas paying a capped power price to take action. That very same yr, China banned crypto mining, prompting many gamers in what had been the world’s largest crypto mining market to relocate their operations.
One other incentive appears to have been the damaging ranges of debt that had amassed in the course of the nation’s dam-building spree. The plan had been to export inexperienced power and so much has been bought overseas lately.
However the crypto growth has induced complications. Vitality-hungry crypto has induced blackouts in the course of the dry season, when hydropower runs low. And within the moist season, the nation generates greater than it might export resulting from a scarcity of transmission infrastructure.
Plans for a regional grid that will let Laos promote to wealthy and power-hungry Singapore have stalled. Laos’s state electrical energy firm is being sued by a state-owned Chinese language building firm over unpaid money owed.
Indonesian military clashes with insurgents. The Indonesian military and independence fighters clashed within the restive area of Papua on Oct. 15, leaving greater than a dozen useless.
In a press release, the Indonesian navy claimed that it had killed 14 separatist fighters who had attacked troops whereas armed with standard weapons as wells as bows and arrows. The insurgents mentioned the Indonesian navy had killed 9 civilians.
The conflict got here as Indonesian troops ready to assault a insurgent put up within the village of Soanggama within the Intan Jaya district of the Central Papua province. The Indonesian navy claimed that the village has been a hotbed of insurgency.
Combating within the area appears to have escalated this yr. Whereas info is tough to substantiate, it appears that evidently the Indonesian navy has stepped up its operations. And extra locals are responding by becoming a member of independence fighters within the jungle.
Papua has lengthy been marked by battle. The continued battle will be traced again to 1962, when the area’s leaders demanded a referendum for independence however as an alternative noticed the territory integrated into the Indonesian nation by way of the “Act of Free Alternative,” which noticed 1,022 Papuan tribal representatives coerced into voting to affix Indonesia.
Brunei’s royal child. Brunei’s Prince Abdul Mateen, 34, and his spouse, Princess Anisha Rosnah, 30, introduced on Oct. 14 that they’re anticipating their first baby. The prince is barely fifth within the line of succession of the oil-rich absolute monarchy, so the political implications of his progeny are restricted.
Nonetheless, the announcement—damaged on Instagram with a creative black-and-white shot—has induced a ripple of curiosity.
Prince Mateen retains a sure superstar standing, and his wealth and success as a global polo participant noticed him dubbed “Asia’s most eligible bachelor” previous to his marriage ceremony.
The marriage ceremony final yr was an extravagant affair that lasted 10 days, attended by royals from all over the world and leaders from throughout Southeast Asia.
42—That’s what number of Chinese language J-10 fighter jets Indonesia is proposing to purchase, with a complete price ticket of $9 billion.
Indonesia had beforehand struck a cope with France to purchase 42 Rafale jets. Whereas some appear to have already been delivered, Jakarta appears to be hedging its bets.
The J-10’s reported success capturing down Rafale jets in the course of the Pakistan-India conflict in Could is seemingly one issue, based on conversations that I’ve had.
Indonesia’s air drive already has planes from seven totally different international locations. It makes integration a nightmare, however the U.S. arms embargo that was in place for the nation from 1999-2005 has left Indonesia cautious of counting on anyone provider.
Supporters of former Thai Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra collect outdoors of the Khlong Prem Central Jail in Bangkok, Thailand, on Oct. 18.Matt Hunt/Anadolu by way of Getty Photos
So-called crimson shirts, supporters of former Thai Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra, gathered on the weekend to protest outdoors the jail the place Shinawatra is serving a one-year sentence on expenses of corruption and abuse of energy. The 76-year-old chief has remained a central determine in Thai politics regardless of being ousted in a coup in 2006 and spending years in exile—although his celebration’s affect now appears to be fading. It has been reported that whereas in jail he’ll oversee sewer cleansing. There are additionally solutions that he might train English to different prisoners.
FP’s Most Learn This Week
Why the Democrats Are So Misplaced by Michael Hirsh
Timor-Leste Provides a New Wrinkle to U.S.-China Competitors by Derek Grossman
Russia’s Subsequent Opposition Will Not Be Liberal by Alexey Kovalev
Vietnamese ballot respondents are getting extra optimistic about China. Why? One cause may very well be TikTok, Phuong Nguyen and Francesco Guarascio report for Reuters.
“China is transferring into the hole, particularly in Asia.” After the US slashed assist, China could also be stepping up its personal efforts at a time when organizations are determined for assist, Kenji Kawase studies for Nikkei Asia.
With Indonesian safety points within the information, Rahman Yaacob, a analysis fellow on the Lowy Institute, supplies a wonderful overview of Indonesia’s strategic thought in the Interpreter. For a lot of within the navy, the principle menace just isn’t China however, somewhat, Western international locations that they believe of wanting to interrupt up Indonesia, Yaacob writes.
For protection tech, the Philippines is seeking to Ukraine for classes, Marites Dañguilan Vitug writes in Rappler. Ukrainian prowess is impressing the Philippines because it tries to up its navy capability within the face of a bellicose China.
Cambodia’s rip-off state. A U.S.- and U.Okay.-led operation towards Cambodian prison teams working rip-off compounds has highlighted the deep ties between these organizations and the Cambodian authorities. “In a long time previous, we had the narcostate. As we speak, now we have the rip-off state,” Jack Davies, a journalist who has reported extensively on this subject, instructed me.
On Oct. 14, the US—working with the UK—indicted Chen Zhi, the chair of the Prince Group, whose web site proclaims that it’s “one of many largest conglomerates in Cambodia.” The USA additionally sanctioned 146 targets related to the corporate and moved to grab $15 billion in its bitcoin holdings. The U.S. Justice Division known as the Prince Group “one among Asia’s largest transnational prison organizations.”
On Oct. 16, there have been extra sanctions, this time towards Huione—an organization linked to a cousin of the prime minister—over its alleged function in scams and cash laundering for criminals and North Korea. Extra could also be coming; an anti-scam invoice lately launched within the U.S. Congress recommends sanctions towards 43 folks, together with Cambodian Deputy Prime Minister Neth Savoeun and Inside Minister Sar Sokha.
Rip-off compounds in Cambodia and different international locations within the area are fortified campuses the place hundreds of coerced staff con cash from targets abroad. The earnings are large. A 2025 report by Jacob Sims, an skilled on transnational crime who now a time period member on the Council on Overseas Relations, estimated that the business’s worth for the Cambodian financial system is $12.5 billion to $19 billion a yr, equal to as a lot as 60 % of Cambodia’s GDP.
The Prince Group exemplifies the intertwining of crime, Cambodian establishments, international finance, and even geopolitics. Consultants say that this group has deep and wide-ranging relationships with the Cambodian authorities.
“Given Chen Zhi’s wealth of connections to Cambodia’s ruling elite, this can be a direct problem to a regime that has constructed its political sturdiness on elite coercion, prison impunity, and predation,” Sims instructed Overseas Coverage.
With the large revenues that they generate Prince and different corporations like it might entry the best ranges of presidency. In 2022, when Cambodia hosted that yr’s ASEAN summit, then-Prime Minister Hun Sen handed out watches produced by Prince Horology—collectively value thousands and thousands—to visiting world leaders.
The place the rip-off state differs from the narcostate is that in contrast to for medicine, management of territory just isn’t essential for rip-off operation. So, whereas folks tricked and trafficked into working within the compounds are topic to abuse and homicide, locals are normally not bothered.
“The final consensus is you discover nearly no Cambodians trafficked into there,” Davies mentioned. “If it occurred to locals, I believe it will develop into a critical legal responsibility for the ruling celebration.”
As we speak, the teams are so embedded that Davies argues that they’re a key a part of the political financial system. The cash they generate helps energy Cambodia’s patronage system like unlawful logging as soon as did, he mentioned, including, “Cambodia is feudalism plus capitalism plus gangsterism.”
The organizations at the moment are large enough to even intrude on worldwide politics. Sanctions by the US—which is seeing a small rapprochement with Cambodia—don’t goal Cambodian politicians. In the meantime, based on reporting by Radio Free Asia, the Prince Group has been alleged to have been concerned in plots starting from a failed try to kidnap an abroad dissident to affect operations in Palau. Some even assume that rip-off teams performed a task within the nation’s transient border warfare with Thailand in July.
