Because the nation goes by means of its first authorities shutdown in practically seven years, California Gov. Gavin Newsom and President Trump discover themselves in a weak second that might make-or-break their standing with voters within the months forward.
Certainly, the stakes are excessive throughout the aisle because the shutdown begins to creep its method into the lives of tons of of 1000’s of People by means of mass layoffs, elevated insurance coverage prices, and cuts to funding for important applications.
And in California – a state that employs over 150,000 federal employees – these repercussions will seemingly be felt the toughest.
For the final decade, California has steadily expanded entry to healthcare protection, implementing instruments like auto-enrollment and “shop-and-compare” which have made attaining monetary assist simple. Now, the shutdown places that – and extra – in peril.
Most jarringly, California officers warned that, attributable to expiring Obamacare subsidies, month-to-month premiums might double, inflicting as many as 400,000 individuals – nearly 1 / 4 of complete enrollees within the state – to drop out of the nation’s largest medical health insurance market.
However Californians aren’t the one ones bracing for impression – blue states nationwide are additionally in jeopardy of feeling the shockwaves from the shutdown as President Trump targets Democrat-backed applications whereas shielding people who align along with his personal priorities, like mass deportation and tariff efforts.
Certainly, it’s necessary to notice that the negatives of the shutdown for Democrats don’t come with no lengthy listing of positives for Trump and his Republican base: decreasing the dimensions and scope of presidency, accelerating the flexibility to impose closing dates and work necessities on Medicaid, and curbing extreme federal spending.
“We will do issues in the course of the shutdown which can be irreversible, which can be unhealthy for them and irreversible by them,” the president stated. “Slicing issues that they like, slicing applications that they like.”
Nevertheless, Trump’s gamble carries actual dangers for the way forward for the Republican get together. If bizarre People – particularly conservatives – really feel that the shutdown has gone on too lengthy, he may very well be seen as placing ideology over stability, undermining the very political benefit he hopes to construct.
It’s this high-risk, high-reward components that defines what one former Trump official has referred to as his “strategic” strategy: an try and inflict most ache on Democrats within the hopes that it’ll add to the chaos already surrounding the get together.
And after the bombshell e book drop by former Vice President Kamala Harris, the Democratic Social gathering is in no want of any extra inside disarray and scrutiny.
For Newsom, the shutdown presents a chance to cement himself as the one Democrat capable of battle again in opposition to Trump – an effort he’s been working in direction of for the reason that deployment of the Nationwide Guard in Los Angeles earlier this yr.
Simply after the midnight funding deadline Sept. 30, Newsom mocked the president’s signature social media type, writing on X that Trump is “a really weak man” in all-caps.
Nonetheless, it’s clear that Newsom is able to put a cease to MAGA antics – the query that is still is whether or not the governor would be the chief Democrats want to take action.
Whereas early numbers present Newsom main in three of the 5 most up-to-date polls compiled by RealClearPolitics – averaging a 5.5-point benefit– how he tackles the shutdown might show to be one more do-or-die second in his profession.
If he manages it effectively, Newsom may very well be seen as a Democrat who provides actual, efficient options to the nation’s most hard-hitting issues – pure disasters, social tensions, financial crises, and now a authorities shutdown.
If he doesn’t, although, he’s in peril of succumbing to the very entice that tanked Harris final election cycle: working on pure resistance to Trump.
Following the discharge of Harris’ “107 Days,” it’s evident that the Democratic citizens is searching for a standard-bearer who can unite People in instances of want, not divide them additional.
And if Newsom can show to do exactly that – whereas additionally sustaining reasonable, common sense stances on pertinent points just like the financial system and immigration – he might have what it takes to make a real bid for the Oval Workplace.
Though it’s too quickly to see the results of the shutdown on Newsom and Trump, whether or not good or unhealthy, they’re certain to be important in figuring out who will name the White Home house come 2028.
Douglas Schoen is a longtime Democratic political advisor.
