Welcome again to our second particular version of Overseas Coverage’s Scenario Report, dwell from Day 1 of the NATO summit in The Hague, the place we’re combating our jet lag with copious quantities of espresso in addition to sugar from the rainbow-colored cookies known as “disco biscuits” which are obtainable without spending a dime on the summit.
World leaders, together with U.S. President Donald Trump, are scheduled to reach Tuesday night for a “social dinner” hosted by the king and queen of the Netherlands.
Right here’s what’s on faucet for the day: NATO and the U.S. downplay considerations of a rift, SitRep will get a front-line perspective from Estonia, and key Indo-Pacific leaders skip the summit.
Even earlier than he arrived on the summit, Trump’s contentious dynamic with the alliance was already the elephant within the room. However on Tuesday, as leaders braced for Trump to the touch down later within the day, NATO chief Mark Rutte and U.S. Ambassador to NATO Matthew Whitaker each tried to downplay the divide.
“My message to my European colleagues is: Cease worrying a lot,” Rutte mentioned on the onset of the summit. “Cease operating round being concerned in regards to the U.S. They’re with us.”
As proof of this, Rutte pointed to the truth that U.S. Lt. Gen. Alexus G. Grynkewich was just lately tapped to be the subsequent supreme allied commander Europe. “Guess what? The brand new supreme allied commander has been introduced, and final time I checked his passport, it was the U.S.,” Rutte mentioned.
However the NATO chief additionally emphasised that Trump’s dedication to NATO is contingent on alliance members spending extra on protection. NATO members are set to agree on a brand new protection spending goal of 5 % of nationwide GDP on the summit, although Trump mentioned final week that america—at present at 3.4 %—shouldn’t be anticipated to pony up more money. “I don’t suppose we should always, however I feel they need to,” he mentioned final week.
In maybe an effort to not rock the boat additional, Rutte didn’t deal with the likelihood that Washington gained’t signal onto the goal—at the same time as he mentioned there could be “no opt-outs” for different reluctant members resembling Spain.
The dedication might have mollified Trump sufficient that NATO can get away with out fireworks on the summit’s predominant occasion on Tuesday, however a number of officers instructed SitRep that they’ve realized to all the time count on the surprising with the U.S. president.
‘A dependable ally.’ Whitaker was far much less ambiguous and provided a full-throated backing of the alliance on the summit. “America isn’t going anyplace. … America goes to be a dependable ally,” he mentioned onstage on the NATO Public Discussion board. “We’ve by no means been extra engaged.”
However Whitaker’s feedback got here as a lot of Trump’s consideration was being pulled away from NATO’s conventional considerations by the uncertainty swirling round an Israel-Iran cease-fire introduced by the president on Monday. As he departed Washington for The Hague on Tuesday, Trump raged at Israel and Iran amid indicators that the truce was already susceptible to collapsing.
It’s additionally truthful to wonder if NATO members are assured in Trump’s dedication, significantly lower than a yr after Vice President J.D. Vance’s combative speech on the Munich Safety Convention raised nervousness throughout Europe.
We put that query to Estonian Protection Minister Hanno Pevkur, who’s right here on the summit. The final time SitRep spoke to Pevkur, coincidentally, was after Vance’s speech in Munich. However Pevkur mentioned that he thinks U.S. constancy towards the alliance stays intact. “I consider the U.S. dedication in Munich was the identical as it’s in the present day,” he mentioned. “They’re nonetheless dedicated to NATO; they’re nonetheless dedicated to collective protection.”
Trump, for his half, appeared fairly happy with himself whereas en path to the summit. The president posted a screenshot of a textual content message from Rutte on Reality Social wherein the NATO chief showered him with reward for making “us all safer” together with his “decisive motion in Iran.” Rutte additionally credited Trump with pushing NATO towards the 5 % protection spending aim. “You might be flying into one other massive success,” the NATO chief mentioned. Whether or not or not this can assist keep off any spicy interactions on the summit involving the U.S. president and NATO allies, as has been the case prior to now, stays to be seen.
What ought to be excessive in your radar, if it isn’t already.
The view from the Baltics. Although a direct battle between NATO and Russia might by no means come, Estonia desires to make sure that it’s all the time ready for that risk—and it has truthful causes for that. The Baltic nation, which was annexed by the Soviet Union in 1940 and remained part of it till regaining independence in 1991, shares a border with Russia and views it as a perpetual risk.
Estonia sees itself and different NATO members in shut proximity to Russia’s borders because the alliance’s entrance door. “The one strategy to preserve the entrance door closed is with the collective effort and with deterrence, to ship a message to Russia that we’re all collectively on this,” Pevkur instructed SitRep.
It subsequently comes as no shock that Estonia is among the largest cheerleaders for NATO’s new 5 % protection spending aim—portraying the formidable goal as lengthy overdue. “Europe has been like a lazy, fats cat not doing something with the protection. Even after 2014, when Russia invaded Ukraine, nothing occurred. Some sanctions, however no response,” Estonian Overseas Minister Margus Tsahkna instructed SitRep on the NATO summit. Tsahkna mentioned NATO ought to have moved on this route a decade in the past. “However lastly, we’re right here,” he mentioned.
In an indication of how severely Tallinn is taking this, Estonia is on monitor to spend 5.4 % of GDP on protection by subsequent yr—which might put it method forward of many alliance members. Tsahkna conceded that spending a lot on protection can impression different sectors of the economic system however emphasised that in Estonia “there wouldn’t be any form of social, medical, or schooling system if Russia is invading and we aren’t prepared for that.” He mentioned that the Estonian authorities has the “full help of the individuals.”
Pevkur additionally underscored that the price of deterrence is way cheaper than the value tag of a struggle, pointing to how a lot Ukraine is spending amid its struggle with Russia. Ukraine had the most important army burden of any nation in 2024, spending 34 % of its GDP on protection. The Estonian protection minister mentioned he would a lot slightly “make investments 5 % throughout peacetime” to assist protect peace and freedom than see Estonia land in an analogous scenario.
Indo-Pacific lite. NATO has stepped up its engagements lately with nations in China’s yard—particularly Japan, South Korea, Australia, and New Zealand. The heads of presidency of every of these nations have attended the final three NATO summits courting again to 2022 in Madrid.
This yr, nonetheless, solely New Zealand selected to ship its chief, in maybe an indication that the truncated agenda is unlikely to depart a lot room for direct engagement with the alliance and significantly america. Japan’s overseas ministry introduced abruptly on Monday that Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba wouldn’t be attending, simply three days after he mentioned he would. Japan was as a substitute represented by Overseas Minister Takeshi Iwaya, whom Rutte met on Tuesday proper after assembly New Zealand’s prime minister, Christopher Luxon.
The Japanese overseas ministry was imprecise in regards to the causes for Ishiba’s cancellation, solely citing “varied circumstances,” however the NATO summit’s core theme of Trump pushing allies to extend protection spending has induced tensions between Washington and Tokyo. Japan canceled its annual “2+2” safety assembly with america scheduled for July 1, the Monetary Instances reported, after the Trump administration demanded it improve protection spending to three.5 % from the beforehand agreed 3 %.
Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese additionally determined to skip the summit, after his deliberate assembly with Trump on the G-7 summit in Canada final week was stymied by Trump’s early departure from that gathering. Albanese’s deputy, Richard Marles, got here in his stead.
South Korean President Lee Jae-myung additionally dropped out of the summit, together with his spokesperson citing “a confluence of pressing home points and rising instability within the Center East,” in accordance with native media. A NATO spokesperson didn’t reply to a request for touch upon the three leaders’ absence.
European Fee President Ursula von der Leyen (left), Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky (middle), and NATO Secretary-Normal Mark Rutte (proper) react throughout a gathering of NATO protection ministers in The Hague on June 24. Jonas Roosens/ANP/AFP through Getty Photographs
Wednesday’s NATO summit agenda, in Central European Time (GMT+1):
9:55 a.m.: Rutte and Trump deal with the summit.
10:30 a.m.: Assembly of all of the heads of state and authorities attending the summit as a part of the North Atlantic Council.
2 p.m.: Rutte holds a press convention.
2.30 p.m.: Rutte meets with NATO’s Indo-Pacific companions.
3.30 p.m.: Rutte and Zelensky meet with the leaders of the E-5 nations (France, Germany, Italy, Poland, and the UK).
“We mainly have two nations which have been combating so lengthy and so exhausting that they don’t know what the fuck they’re doing.”
—Trump responding to the information that an Iran-Israel cease-fire was on shaky floor, lower than a day after he introduced the truce, as he left the White Home for The Hague early on Tuesday.
