For higher or worse, Rob Manfred has completed turning Main League Baseball’s postseason — as soon as the shortest match and the one that almost all rewarded common season excellence — into essentially the most unpredictable free-for-all this facet of the NCAA Match.
The wild-card spherical is especially difficult to forecast. Consider it as the primary spherical of the NCAA Match, if each first-round recreation was an 8 vs. 9 coin flip. The crew with fewer common season wins is 9-3 within the best-of-three wild card sequence since 2022.
And since that is solely a four-round match, your complete bracket might be in tatters with one fallacious choose.
In different phrases: Don’t blame us if these picks go sideways. Right here’s our greatest guesses as to how the following three days will unfold.
No. 3 Cleveland Guardians (88-74) vs. No. 6 Detroit Tigers (87-75)
The Tigers appeared headed for a first-round bye and the Guardians appeared prepared for October tee instances earlier than Detroit went 7-17 in September whereas Cleveland roared to a 20-8 end to finish their comeback from a 15 1/2-game deficit — the biggest ever overcome by a division champ.
However there’s that previous cliche about momentum being the following day’s beginning pitcher, and Detroit’s starter at this time is probably going repeat Cy Younger Award winner Tarik Skubal. Pitching and offense win within the playoffs and the Guardians have not one of the latter. Cleveland’s 643 runs scored are the third-fewest for a playoff crew in a full season throughout the wild card period.
Plus, ending the common season in rollicking vogue after which shedding within the first spherical of the playoffs is essentially the most Cleveland factor attainable. It already occurred in 2013 and 2017!
PREDICTION: Tigers in 2
No. 4 New York Yankees (94-68) vs. No. 5 Boston Pink Sox (89-73)
Aug 23, 2025; Bronx, New York, USA; Boston Pink Sox pitcher Garrett Crochet (35) pitches in opposition to the New York Aug 23, 2025; Bronx, New York, USA; Boston Pink Sox pitcher Garrett Crochet (35) pitches in opposition to the New York Yankees throughout the first inning at Yankee Stadium. Necessary Credit score: John Jones-Imagn ImagesYankees throughout the first inning at Yankee Stadium. Necessary Credit score: John Jones-Imagn Pictures Right here’s the proper instance of a choose both making or breaking a bracket. The defending AL champion Yankees went 18-7 in September and completed the season with the very best run differential (plus-164) within the AL. Aaron Choose is red-hot and wholesome, Giancarlo Stanton is the brand new Mr. October and All-Stars Max Fried and Carlos Rodon headline the rotation.
The Pink Sox are lacking star rookie outfielder Roman Anthony (indirect) and No. 3 starter Lucas Giolito (elbow). Nearer Aroldis Chapman had a monster common season however is synonymous with October meltdowns.
But…the Yankees are 23-26 in opposition to playoff groups this season and nonetheless liable to the basic errors that value them in final 12 months’s World Collection. The Pink Sox will begin a real ace, Garrett Crochet, tonight. And Boston is 24-15 in opposition to the Yankees during the last three years. If the Yankees get out of this sequence, they’ll most likely win the pennant. And but…
PREDICTION: Pink Sox in 3
No. 3 Los Angeles Dodgers (93-69) vs. No. 6 Cincinnati Reds (83-79)
Los Angeles Dodgers shortstop Mookie Betts (50) high-fives first baseman Enrique Hernandez (8) after defeating the Arizona Diamondbacks 8-0 to clinch the Nationwide League West title throughout the season residence finale at Chase Discipline in Phoenix on Sept. 25, 2025. PHOTO USA TODAY SPORTS IMAGES The closest factor we’ll see this 12 months to a seemingly lopsided 1 vs. 16 duel. The defending champion Dodgers might need life hacked their method by way of a blase common season, solely to reach within the playoffs with a loaded rotation, the NL’s most potent offense and Shohei Ohtani able to do his two-way factor on the postseason stage for the primary time. The bullpen stays a query mark, however starters Tyler Glasnow, Roki Sasaki and Emmet Sheehan will all be obtainable in reduction.
The Reds “earned” the ultimate wild card berth by stumbling just a bit bit much less down the stretch than the New York Mets. However Cincinnati has some large slayer capabilities right here with Hunter Greene, Zack Littell and Andrew Abbott lined as much as begin. And there are few managers higher ready for the postseason gauntlet than the Corridor of Fame-bound Terry Francona, who got here out of retirement to do what he does finest — win on a funds. Don’t be shocked if Cincinnati pulls a Princeton in 1989. At the least.
PREDICTION: Dodgers in 3
No. 4 Chicago Cubs (92-70) vs. No. 5 San Diego Padres (90-72)
Sep 28, 2025; Chicago, Illinois, USA; Chicago Cubs proper fielder Seiya Suzuki (27) crosses residence plate after hitting a solo residence run in opposition to the St. Louis Cardinals throughout the fifth inning at Wrigley Discipline. Necessary Credit score: Kamil Krzaczynski-Imagn Pictures The Cubs have been .500 or higher each month and by no means gained or misplaced greater than 5 straight video games, which made them the steadiest crew in a topsy-turvy season. However star outfielder Kyle Tucker is nowhere close to one hundred pc after coping with a calf harm in September and the rotation shall be lacking potential Rookie of the 12 months Cade Horton, who suffered a damaged rib final week. Doubtless Recreation 1 and Recreation 2 starters Matthew Boyd and Shota Imanaga posted a mixed 6.00 ERA in September.
But the Cubs nonetheless really feel like a safer guess than the ever-combustible Padres, who’ve a bullpen for the ages but in addition scored the fewest runs and produced the best rotation ERA of any NL playoff crew. San Diego can also be extra liable to head-scratching basic miscues than anybody within the subject — even the Yankees. Leon Durham lastly will get his revenge for 1984.
PREDICTION: Cubs in 2
