The worth of most natural meals may leap this fall due to new insurance policies and tariffs on imported natural sugar, irritating producers who say the actions received’t assist sugar growers however may put some meals corporations out of enterprise.
Greater than 90% of natural sugar utilized by U.S. producers is imported. The worth of that product elevated in August when the Trump administration imposed steep commerce tariffs, and can rise much more when high-tier duties on most natural sugar imports take impact Oct. 1.
The end result, in response to the Natural Commerce Affiliation, is that the value of natural sugar is anticipated to soar by a mean of 30%, growing prices of manufacturing most natural meals — all the things from yogurt to cookies.
The politics of natural meals are intersectional, having advanced over the past decade from a largely coastal, liberal-coded foodstuff to a core staple of millennials and Gen Z. In February 2025, food-service researcher Acosta Group discovered that 59% of all buyers suppose it’s vital that their groceries or family merchandise are pure or natural, whereas 89% of Gen Z and 85% of millennials reported looking for pure and natural merchandise within the final six months.
A choice for natural meals additionally more and more overlaps with the suggestions of the “Make America Wholesome Once more,” or MAHA motion, led by HHS Secretary Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. Whereas the MAHA web site doesn’t particularly point out a choice for natural meals, it discloses that the Division of Well being and Human Providers and the U.S. Division of Agriculture shall be releasing new dietary pointers that “promote MAHA priorities to enhance vitamin for Individuals.”
The phrase “natural” seems thrice in “The MAHA report,” however dedicates over 10 pages to criticism of “ultra-processed meals,” together with a criticism of Individuals’ poor eating regimen. It argues that the “The American eating regimen has shifted dramatically towards ultra-processed meals (UPFs),
resulting in nutrient depletion, elevated caloric consumption, and publicity to dangerous components. Almost
70% of youngsters’s energy now come from UPFs, contributing to weight problems, diabetes, and different
power circumstances.”
Every year, the U.S. imports 1,825 tons (1,656 metric tons) of specialty sugar as a result of it’s required below a World Commerce Group settlement. However demand for natural sugar far exceeds that quantity, so the U.S. Division of Agriculture units an annual quota for the quantity of specialty sugar that may be imported into the U.S. duty-free.
Final yr, the quota was 231,485 tons (210,000 metric tons), which nonetheless wasn’t sufficient to fulfill demand. This yr, the USDA’s quota taking impact Oct. 1 shall be zero, and all natural sugar imports past the WTO minimal shall be hit with excessive out-of-quota duties.
The U.S. Division of Agriculture has stated its restrictions on specialty sugar imports are supposed to assist the U.S. sugar business.
In response to questions on its new coverage, the USDA launched a press release saying that “the choice was not made to profit any single entity,” and it will proceed to watch market circumstances.
Specialty sugar coverage may result in larger costs
The boundaries on duty-free imports of specialty sugar plus a brand new 50% tariff on Brazil, which provides 40% of the U.S.’ natural sugar, is particularly troublesome as a result of natural merchandise are already costlier than their typical counterparts. Growers should meet extra necessities to be licensed natural, equivalent to restrictions on pesticides and fertilizers.
U.S. producers say that purchasing home natural sugar isn’t an choice as a result of there is just one U.S. farm that produces the specialty crop, and changing a traditional farm to natural takes at the least three years.
They warn the mixed impact of the tariff and import caps could power them both to boost costs or curb manufacturing.
“It’s basically punishing home producers for utilizing an ingredient that we actually can’t get hold of domestically, and don’t have any prospects of acquiring domestically any time within the close to future,” stated Britt Lundgren, who oversees authorities affairs for natural yogurt maker Stonyfield.
Tom Chapman, co-CEO of the Natural Commerce Affiliation, stated he expects “dramatic impacts.”
“The excessive tier tariff is so excessive that we don’t see that it’s an absorbable price of tariff, along with all the opposite tariffs that will apply,” Chapman stated.
Natural meals producers will purchase a lot of the imported natural sugar, although some shall be provided on grocery cabinets, the place residence bakers doubtless will see elevated costs.
U.S. not producing sufficient natural sugar to fulfill demand
Demand for natural sugar had already been outpacing imports for the previous a number of years. However that state of affairs didn’t spur any new home producers, natural meals producers stated.
Along with restricted manufacturing, the U.S. additionally has restricted natural sugar processing as a result of substances which are licensed natural have to be segregated from typical substances when processed.
Complete Earth Manufacturers, an organization that sells a wide range of sweeteners, is anticipating a 100% improve in natural sugar prices, in response to firm president Nigel Willerton.
“We provide each main grocery store within the U.S. and pure meals shops. We’ll see our costs go up fairly significantly. There’s nothing we are able to keep away from there,” he stated.
How a lot costs will change will depend on how a lot sugar is used within the product. For instance, sweeteners which are made nearly completely from natural sugar are prone to see larger value will increase than dairy merchandise, the place natural sugar is just not the primary ingredient.
Larger sugar prices could lead some companies to close down
Many natural meals producers are smaller operations, so they’re extra delicate to will increase in enter prices, Willerton stated. A few of them could not have the revenue margins to soak up the price, and they’re unable to exchange natural sugar substitutes as a result of it will require product reformulation.
“We’ve acquired a lot of small corporations concerned on this enterprise,” Willerton stated. “These small premium corporations producing these merchandise are actually going to search out themselves priced out of the market.”
The U.S. authorities has lengthy had a outstanding function in sugar manufacturing, with insurance policies for setting minimal costs and beneficiant mortgage applications.
Nonetheless, Chapman stated he doesn’t perceive what the USDA is attempting to perform with its restrictions.
“Once we seemed on the USDA bulletins, they have been speaking about home sugar shrinking and mills closing,” he stated. “There’s just one mill. They have been in operation earlier than, and so they’re in operation now.”
Florida Crystals Company, the one natural sugar producer within the U.S., provides 8% of the U.S. natural sugar market, up from about 2% a decade in the past.
Marianne Martinez, the corporate’s spokesperson, stated the USDA’s new specialty sugar coverage “is encouraging and will end in a rise in U.S.-grown and milled natural cane sugar manufacturing if it turns into a long-term coverage.”
The USDA has not introduced another initiatives to assist natural growers within the meantime.
