Hamas’s shock assault on Oct. 7, 2023, ushered in a brand new period of instability for Israel’s regional relationships. Whereas worldwide consideration has understandably targeted on Gaza itself, the aftershocks have prolonged far past its borders. That is notably true for Egypt, Israel’s most vital Arab neighbor and a important companion for the reason that signing of the Camp David Accords in 1978-1979.
Within the almost two years for the reason that Israel-Hamas struggle started, Israeli choices have strained bilateral ties with Cairo. This rising friction not solely jeopardizes a pillar of Israel’s regional safety but in addition undermines its broader strategic place within the Center East. On the eve of its anticipated navy operation in Gaza Metropolis, Israel should recalibrate its method to Egypt earlier than it causes everlasting injury to a chilly however purposeful peace.
Hamas’s shock assault on Oct. 7, 2023, ushered in a brand new period of instability for Israel’s regional relationships. Whereas worldwide consideration has understandably targeted on Gaza itself, the aftershocks have prolonged far past its borders. That is notably true for Egypt, Israel’s most vital Arab neighbor and a important companion for the reason that signing of the Camp David Accords in 1978-1979.
Within the almost two years for the reason that Israel-Hamas struggle started, Israeli choices have strained bilateral ties with Cairo. This rising friction not solely jeopardizes a pillar of Israel’s regional safety but in addition undermines its broader strategic place within the Center East. On the eve of its anticipated navy operation in Gaza Metropolis, Israel should recalibrate its method to Egypt earlier than it causes everlasting injury to a chilly however purposeful peace.
From the struggle’s outset, Egypt noticed an Israeli invasion of Gaza as a direct risk to its nationwide safety. Repeated Israeli efforts—generally veiled, generally overt—to strain Cairo into accepting Palestinians from Gaza into Sinai have been persistently met with Egyptian resistance. Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi, who shares no love for Hamas, made it clear that collaborating within the compelled displacement of Palestinian refugees would represent a pink line, fueling home instability and undermining Egypt’s long-standing declare of defending Palestinian rights.
Egypt has additionally tried to construct consensus within the Arab world round various “day after” plans for Gaza that may empower a technocratic Palestinian administration. Israel’s persistent promotion of “voluntary migration” alongside the Trump administration’s Gaza “Riviera” plan has due to this fact been interpreted in Cairo not merely as tone-deaf, but in addition as an intentional provocation that threatens regime stability. It isn’t coincidental that Sisi has but to go to the White Home throughout Trump’s second time period.
The struggle has additionally come at a heavy price for Egypt. Tourism has suffered whereas Houthi assaults have additionally redirected world delivery lanes away from the Suez Canal, one other important income supply for Cairo. There have additionally been periodic suspensions of the circulation of Israeli pure gasoline. These have broken Egypt’s entry to overseas foreign money and amplified persistent problems with inflation, thereby widening the nation’s fiscal gaps and exacerbating its overdependence on worldwide loans.
Along with these current challenges, Egypt can also be involved concerning the financial impression of the proposed India-Center East-Europe Financial Hall, which—by creating various regional commerce routes by means of Israel and Jordan—may depart Egypt excessive and dry.
Israel’s navy takeover of the Rafah border crossing between Egypt and Gaza in Might 2024 and its continued operations alongside the Philadelphi Hall created a number of the sharpest crises in relations in a long time. From Cairo’s perspective, these strikes violated components of the Camp David Accords and challenged Egyptian sovereignty in Sinai. Egypt responded by closing the Rafah crossing, halting cooperation on support flows, and hardening its rhetoric towards Israel. Throughout this era, U.S. mediation was important each in enabling the continued circulation of support and making certain that Israeli and Egyptian officers maintained traces of communication.
Most not too long ago, because it inches towards a full-scale navy operation in Gaza Metropolis, Israel has hinted at threatening its financial relationship with Egypt as a strategy to safe cooperation from Cairo. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Vitality Minister Eli Cohen reportedly intend to look at the $35 billion pure gasoline export settlement not too long ago signed with Egypt by the companions concerned within the Mediterranean Sea’s Leviathan gasoline discipline (together with U.S. supermajor Chevron). Based on Israel Hayom, this occurred “towards the backdrop of reviews within the media that Egypt is violating the peace settlement with Israel.” These statements mirror a broader pattern of senior Israeli officers more and more casting doubts on Egypt’s reliability as a companion and its dedication to the Camp David Accords.
These actions threat sending Israel’s already-strained relations with Egypt right into a full tailspin, endangering the anchor to Israel’s whole regional safety structure.
Egypt was the primary Arab nation to signal a peace treaty with Israel, beneath which it has maintained quiet alongside their frequent border for greater than 4 a long time. This sense of stability allowed Israel to focus sources on different threats, from Hezbollah in Lebanon to Iran’s actions throughout the area. There isn’t a query that Egypt, by means of its appeasement of Hamas, has not been a perfect neighbor, and Cairo bears its personal share of duty for the situations that led to the Oct. 7 assaults. However undermining the Camp David Accords dangers reintroducing strategic uncertainty to Israel’s southern border, an pointless burden atop the Israeli navy’s expansive record of duties.
Egypt stays a key dealer in Arab diplomacy. Its mediation function with Hamas and different Palestinian factions has been imperfect however indispensable. Alienating Cairo weakens Israel’s skill to reach future hostage and cease-fire negotiations in addition to regional diplomacy extra broadly.
Moreover, Arab states contemplating normalization with Israel—most notably, Saudi Arabia—intently monitor how Israel treats its present regional companions. If relations with Egypt deteriorate additional, others will conclude that Israeli commitments are unreliable.
This additionally extends to financial cooperation, the place—in an period of boycott and divestment—Cairo has truly doubled down on its dedication to importing Israeli pure gasoline. Cynics would level to Egypt’s acute vitality shortages as proof that the current agreements solely mirror a slim set of pursuits. However the Leviathan and Tamar pure gasoline fields are, in actual fact, strategic belongings that tie Israel not solely to Egypt but in addition into regional vitality markets. Turning them into bargaining chips might provide short-term leverage, however the technique will finally corrode the long-term belief vital for vitality cooperation and speed up Cairo’s ongoing seek for further pure gasoline suppliers.
Vitality cooperation establishes mutual dependence. Simply as an Israeli risk to show off the faucet would hurt the Egyptian regime, if Egypt succeeded in diversifying away from Israeli gasoline, then Israel would lose each financial income and regional connectivity. As Chevron’s president for world gasoline commented in early September, “Egypt wants all of the gasoline it will possibly get.”
Egypt, for its half, has taken many steps which have strained the connection. Beginning this spring, it has frozen ambassadorial exchanges, declining to approve Israel’s new envoy to Cairo and withholding its personal ambassadorial appointment to Israel. Egypt additionally joined South Africa’s genocide case towards Israel on the Worldwide Court docket of Justice in 2024.
However throughout a interval when Israel is changing into more and more remoted within the worldwide enviornment, it’s noteworthy that, amid the vicissitudes of struggle, Egypt has managed to stability its financial and safety cooperation with Israel on one hand and its opposition to Israeli coverage on the opposite. This can be the best proof that Egypt sees its destiny tied to the Camp David Accords and fears the prospect of the peace treaty’s collapse.
The choice is regarding. If it genuinely needed to hurt Israeli nationwide safety pursuits with out elevating worldwide alarm bells, then Egypt may merely chill out its safety cooperation with Israel. This might hurt Israel’s strategic depth on its southern entrance and expose its 206 kilometer (128 mile) border with Egypt to potential threats.
In conclusion, whereas the peace treaty stays intact, the material that sustained the Camp David Accords since 1979 is fraying, and there’s an absence of mutual belief. If Israel pushes too far, then it received’t solely threat the bilateral relationship but in addition hurt the Egyptian regime. As an alternative, Israel must recalibrate: to cease urgent Egypt on the Gaza relocation concern, attain mutually agreeable phrases relating to safety management alongside the Egypt-Gaza border, safeguard vitality cooperation, and empower Egypt’s ongoing mediation function fairly than undermining it. Reestablishing belief with Cairo would additionally sign to different regional actors that Israel is able to compromise and restraint.
There may be additionally a task right here for third events as nicely. Most vital is america, which each brokered the Camp David Accords and has been the first mediator between Israel and Egypt within the a long time since. However European and Arab neighbors, which share a typical curiosity in sturdy Israeli-Egyptian ties, must also assist.
This begins with conveying clear indicators of help for the Egyptian regime. It additionally entails pivoting away from the Gaza Riviera fantasy, severely addressing Egypt’s proposed “day after” plan for Gaza, and pursuing back-channel efforts to bridge the safety gaps between Israel and Egypt.
Israel’s peace with Egypt is just not a relic of the previous however a residing, evolving linchpin in Israel’s regional safety. Sturdy ties with Egypt strengthen Israel’s financial system, mitigate Israel’s diplomatic isolation, and bolster Israel’s protection. Squandering them can be a historic mistake.
