Ethiopia to open GERD mega-dam regardless of warnings from Sudan and Egypt over Nile water provides

Johannesburg — Africa’s largest hydroelectric dam, the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD), on the Blue Nile is scheduled to open Tuesday to main fanfare in Ethiopia. The $5 billion dam challenge has been a uniting drive for Ethiopians each at house and overseas, who’ve helped to fund the challenge.

Funding calls had gone out for the reason that challenge was launched in 2011, with the federal government additionally issuing bonds to fund development of the mile-long, 475-foot-high construction.

The celebrations in Ethiopia, nonetheless, is not going to prolong additional down the mighty river into neighboring Sudan or Egypt, each of which have warned that the dam may deliver grave penalties.

After years of failed talks, there was nonetheless no settlement in place a day earlier than the dam was as a result of start operations on how the water will circulation via the mammoth construction to make sure satisfactory provides in Egypt and Sudan.

Solely 54% of Ethiopia’s roughly 120 million inhabitants have entry to dependable energy, and Ethiopian officers have stated the 5,150-megawatt capability dam is anticipated to double nationwide electrical energy era capability.

Egypt and Sudan’s opposition to the dam

In a joint assertion final week, Egypt and Sudan stated the dam “breached worldwide regulation and would trigger grave penalties to the 2 downstream international locations.”

Each nations have stated they now take into account water safety a nationwide safety concern. 

The Blue Nile flows from Ethiopia to Khartoum, Sudan’s capital, the place it joins the White Nile earlier than flowing into Egypt because the Nile. 

The Blue Nile, quickly to circulation via the brand new dam, provides greater than 80% of the water for the mixed river system.

Egypt’s authorities, noting that greater than 90% of the nation is desert, has stated most of its inhabitants lives alongside the Nile, and it has raised concern for years that the dam will scale back water circulation and trigger shortages — and officers have warned they are going to take measures in response if that occurs.

“Anybody who imagines that Egypt will flip a blind eye to an existential risk to its water safety is mistaken,” Egyptian chief Abdel Fattah El-Sisi stated in August, calling it a possible “existential” risk to his nation. 

“We’ll proceed to observe the state of affairs and take all measures supplied for below worldwide regulation to safeguard our individuals’s existential assets,” El-Sisi stated.

Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed has been extensively quoted as saying the dam will profit everybody within the area, via energy buy agreements and flood management.

“To our neighbours downstream — Egypt and Sudan — our message is evident: The Renaissance Dam shouldn’t be a risk, however a shared alternative. It’s a image of regional cooperation and mutual profit. The power and growth it’ll generate stand to uplift not simply Ethiopia, however the complete area,” he stated in remarks on July 3.

In a social media put up on Sept. 2, Abiy referred to as seeing the dam accomplished “a historic milestone in Ethiopia,” including that for him personally it was a “remaining prayer and it was my final want.”

Trump’s criticism and the U.S. stance on GERD

The U.S. authorities has lengthy tried to steadiness the considerations and wishes of the international locations within the area in relation to the dam challenge. In the course of the Biden administration in 2024, then Assistant Secretary of State Molly Phee instructed reporters the U.S. had “underscored our recognition of” Egypt’s water wants “and the significance of the Nile to Egypt,” together with “Sudan’s considerations about dam operations and security, and Ethiopia’s compelling growth wants.”

She stated the U.S. was “dedicated to serving to all these events talk about how agreements associated to water administration, use, and entry can contribute to safety and stability” within the area, and she or he stated the administration remained “prepared to interact diplomatically in help of such efforts.”

Extra just lately, President Trump has criticized the dam, claiming a number of occasions with out providing proof or clarification, most just lately in late July — that the challenge was “stupidly” funded “with United States cash, largely,” and noting particularly Egypt’s considerations over its Nile water provide.

The coordination physique established by Ethiopia’s authorities to drum up funding for the challenge has vehemently denied Mr. Trump’s assertions, insisting the dam was constructed “with none international assist.”

Ethiopia will likely be internet hosting the Second Africa Local weather Summit from Monday, and Abiy has voiced hope that African leaders attending the summit can even attend Tuesday’s GERD grand opening celebrations.

The dam is anticipated to herald $1 billion in income yearly, in keeping with Abiy, who has pledged that the cash will assist finance different infrastructure tasks.