We begin Sunday Night time Soccer with a matchup between two of essentially the most electrical groups within the NFL. Lamar Jackson and the Baltimore Ravens will journey to tackle Josh Allen and the Buffalo Payments. That is the kind of matchup that we might see in a while within the AFC Championship sport.
Honestly, there’s one main issue as to why I’m leaning someway on this sport: the situation.
Each of those groups have been drastically higher at house final season. The Payments have been 8-0 at house in comparison with 5-4 on the street. They have been additionally 2-0 at house within the postseason earlier than dropping a street matchup in opposition to the Kansas Metropolis Chiefs.
The Ravens posted a 7-2 file in Baltimore final season. They have been solely 6-4 on the street, together with a loss to the Payments within the playoffs.
These data are baseline numbers that don’t really give us a ton of knowledge. The predictive metrics present us extra of the identical about every staff’s house/street splits.
Buffalo ranked second within the NFL in factors per play (0.500) final season. That quantity jumped to 0.545 at house. This was the very best within the NFL by a large margin, and so they have been one in every of solely two groups to common over 0.500 factors per play at house in 2024.
Extra importantly than an already dominant offense is their defensive splits. Buffalo ranked solely 14th within the NFL in factors per play (0.356) allowed in 2024. That quantity dropped to solely 0.299 at house, which ranked seventh within the league.
The Ravens are in the identical boat because the Payments, which provides to the significance of the place this sport will likely be performed. Baltimore ranked third in factors per play (0.482) in 2024. That quantity dipped to 0.471 on the street. Additionally they allowed 0.345 factors per play general, however that quantity elevated to 0.368 on the street.
The important thing right here is the distinction between the numbers. The Payments are scoring 0.045 extra factors per play at house, whereas the Ravens are scoring 0.011 fewer factors per play. Buffalo can be giving up 0.057 fewer factors per play of their house stadium in comparison with Baltimore giving up 0.023 extra factors per play away from house.
The general distinction is that Buffalo is gaining 0.102 factors per play at house, whereas Baltimore is dropping 0.034. It’s a drastic impediment to beat for any staff.
We’re getting the most effective groups within the NFL as a house underdog, and the percentages are too good to cross up.
The place to Guess: Buffalo Payments moneyline | +105 at ESPN Guess
