Chris Fallica
FOX Sports Wagering Expert
I’m not sure if there’s been a better opening weekend of college football than the one that we’re about to see.
Week 1 is here, headlined by an electric matchup between No. 1 Texas and No. 3. Ohio State at noon ET on FOX and the FOX Sports app.
The matchup between these two juggernauts will be the first instance of the defending national champion opening the season against the No. 1-ranked team since 1988, and just the fourth time ever that’s happened. In the previous three instances, my Miami Hurricanes took down No. 1 Florida State (1988) and No. 1 Penn State (1984).
The Longhorns-Buckeyes tilt isn’t the only banger of a game this weekend, as we have two other ranked matchups — No. 10 Miami hosts No. 6 Notre Dame and No. 4 Clemson hosts No. 9 LSU. This is the first time ever we’ve seen three top-10 matchups on opening weekend.
With weekends like this one, lengthy discussions ensue between myself and the fine people at FOX Sports every week as we plan our production for Big Noon Kickoff. Every Sunday night, I reflect on what’s to come, and send out a lengthy email to producers, researchers, and my colleagues on air about things to watch out for.
I’ve decided to peel back the curtain and share those thoughts with you all, because everyone should rejoice in the splendor that is college football.
So, with that being said, let’s dive into my thoughts for this weekend.
Longhorns come to Columbus
Besides the fact that the defending champion opens up its season against one of the most historic programs in college football history, there are so many interesting storylines in this game.
How different will both of these offenses look compared to last year?
Arch Manning will be making his third career start while Julian Sayin makes his collegiate debut. Texas didn’t have a mobile QB in Quinn Ewers last year, while Ohio State’s Will Howard thrived on the ground, so it’ll be interesting to see how both schemes will look this year. The Buckeyes will also have to replace a substantial amount of rushing production with the departure of Quinshon Judkins and TreVeyon Henderson to the NFL.
Much has also been talked about the Texas defense, with many ranking it as the best unit in the country. But are the two best football players in the country both Buckeyes? Jeremiah Smith is undoubtedly the best receiver in FBS, while Caleb Downs might just be the best defensive player this year. How will that OSU defense look under former Lions coach Matt Patricia?
It also begs the question as to which team is better equipped to handle a loss here. Regardless of who comes out on top, it should be fireworks in Columbus come Saturday.
Top-10 matchup at the Hard Rock
It doesn’t get better than a “Catholics vs. Convicts” matchup.
Fresh off the heels of a loss in the national title, Notre Dame travels to Miami to take on the tenth-ranked Hurricanes in a rare Sunday night college football game. The Irish lead the all-time series 18-8-1 but lost the most recent tilt in 2017 — another top-10 matchup that saw No. 6 Miami take down No. 3 Notre Dame 41-8.
Below I break down some other historic matchups between the two:
- 1985: No. 4 Miami routs unranked Notre Dame 58-7. The media accuses Jimmy Johnson of running up the score in what was Gerry Faust’s last game as the Irish head coach. Johnson later responded with, “I wasn’t running up the score, our backups were running up the score.”
- 1988: No. 4 Notre Dame defeated the defending national champion and No. 1-ranked Miami in a 31-30 thriller, ending a 36-game win streak for the Hurricanes. Aside from the infamous fumble call involving Cleveland Gary, this game also featured Jimmy Johnson deciding to go for two to win the game instead of kicking the extra-point — with the Irish getting the stop and going on to win the national title with a 12-0 season. Notre Dame has not won a national title since.
- 1989: No. 7 Miami defeats No. 1 Notre Dame 27-10, ending a 23-game win streak for the Irish. The game featured a third-and-44 conversion from Randall Hill, and the Canes would go on to win the national title that year.
- 1990: Unranked Notre Dame defeats No. 2 Miami 29-20, handing it its second loss of the season. The game featured a 94-yard kickoff return for a TD by Rocket Ismail, and marked a 20-year hiatus in the rivalry.
By way of this Sunday’s matchup, there are some things to look out for. Are we overlooking all of the personnel losses on the Notre Dame roster? If you take a look at what it misplaced on the offensive line and protection, it’s fairly a bit. After which, in fact, there’s Carson Beck to consider. Will the transition from Cam Ward to Beck be seamless? To me, he was the most effective QB within the portal, having thrown for almost 8,000 yards together with 58 TDs and 18 interceptions in two seasons at Georgia — to not point out his 24-3 document as a starter.
As for Notre Dame’s QB scenario, I’m wondering if we’ll see Kenny Minchey play right here. CJ Carr was named the starter, nevertheless it was an in depth competitors between the 2 all through camp. Regardless, each of those groups open their seasons at Arduous Rock Stadium, and can look to finish it there, because the nationwide title for the 2025-26 CFP can be held there.
Two Heisman favorites conflict in Dying Valley
We’ll see two of the highest quarterbacks within the nation face off on Saturday, with Clemson’s Cade Klubnik taking over LSU’s Garrett Nussmeier.
Klubnik was one in all 4 FBS gamers to account for 4,000-plus yards of complete offense and 40-plus TDs final season, becoming a member of Ward, Shedeur Sanders and Howard. Nussmeier, alternatively, is the one returning QB within the nation that had 4,000-plus passing yards final season. At FanDuel Sportsbook, they’re at the moment each at +900 to win the Heisman, trailing solely Manning at +700.
Brian Kelly remains to be searching for his first season-opening win at LSU, having misplaced his final three. He hit the portal laborious, bringing 18 gamers — good for the top-ranked switch class, in line with 247Sports.
Facet notice: One thing I discover hilarious is the quantity of similarities between these two packages. Each name their stadium Dying Valley, each have a Tiger mascot and each have purple as one in all their faculty colours. However I feel the actual query is whether or not you’re taking Cajun meals or a smokin’ pig!
Switch QBs to observe this week
There are a number of switch QBs to be careful for this weekend. Beneath are some I’m particularly curious to see in Week 1.
- Carson Beck: He takes on Notre Dame, after averaging 275.0 pass YPG in two seasons at Georgia, with 57 total TDs. He also averaged 313.7 pass YPG with a TD-INT ratio of 11-0 in his last three healthy games for the Bulldogs (before season-ending elbow surgery).
- John Mateer. He takes on Illinois State. He led the nation with 44 total TDs last season, along with 330.4 total YPG. He was the only FBS player last year with 25-plus passing TDs and 15-plus rushing TDs — and the first to do that in a single year since Jalen Hurts in 2019.
- Jackson Arnold: He akes on Baylor. He’s a former 5five-star recruit who went 5-4 as a starter for Oklahoma last year with 16 total TDs and just three interceptions.
- Thomas Castellanos: He takes on Alabama. In two seasons at Boston College, he recorded 47 total TDs, leading all FBS QBs in rushing TDs in 2023 with 13.
- Fernando Mendoza: He takes on Old Dominion, after averaging over 300 pass YPG in the final eight games of the season at Cal. He finished the year with 19 total TDs and six INTs.
- Nico Iamaleava: He takes on Utah. The former five-star recruit went 11-3 as a starter at Tennessee with 27 total TDs and five INTs.
Potential Group of 5 vs. Energy 4 Upsets
There’s a number of G5 groups that I feel can upset their P4 opponents this week. None of them are large packages, nevertheless it’s price mentioning Toledo went to Mississippi State final 12 months and got here out with a win. Toledo takes on a Kentucky workforce this week that went 4-8 and 1-7 in SEC play final season, the previous being its worst document since 2013. The road for that recreation opened at 10.5 and has now dropped to 7.5. Southern Miss (+13.5 vs Mississippi State), Hawaii (+17.5 vs Arizona) and Coastal Carolina (+11.5 vs Virginia) are all double-digit underdogs price contemplating.
Seminoles tackle Tide
That is an fascinating one as Alabama’s Kalen DeBoer is underneath a variety of strain in Yr 2. Lots of people assume Bama is “again” as a result of Ryan Grubb left his position because the offensive coordinator of the Seahawks to name performs for the Tide. However Ty Simpson is unproven and, as at all times, Alabama has a number of tough video games on the schedule. In the identical vein, there’s an opportunity FSU is like 6-6 this 12 months regardless of bringing in 23 portal gamers — good for the No. 6 switch class in line with 247Sports. FSU is at the moment a two-TD house underdog towards Bama, which appears a bit excessive. The Seminoles have been double-digit neutral-site favorites final season and ended up shedding by three to Georgia Tech, sending them on a 2-10 tailspin —the fourth-worst document in class historical past. Perhaps they are going to reverse issues this 12 months.
Wealthy Rod again in Morgantown
Welcome again house, Wealthy Rod! The 62-year-old performed defensive again for the Mountaineers from 1981-84, was a pupil assistant there in 1985, got here again as a linebackers coach in 1989, after which was the top coach from 2001 to 2007. From 2005-07, he led them to a 32-5 document. Within the 17 seasons since his departure, West Virginia has solely received 10 video games in a season twice. Can one in all Morgantown’s favourite sons deliver them again to nationwide relevance? Solely time will inform.
Notable Friday video games
Whereas the Saturday slate is loaded, there are nonetheless some actually nice video games on Friday. Deion Sanders and the Buffs will tackle a feisty Georgia Tech workforce of their opener, trying to present everybody that they’ll have success with out Shedeur Sanders and Travis Hunter. Baylor takes on Auburn in an important quarterback matchup. Sawyer Robertson threw for over 3,000 yards with a 28-8 TD-INT ratio for the Bears final 12 months, whereas former five-star recruit Jackson Arnold will look to have a breakout 12 months after spending two seasons at Oklahoma.
The Jim Donnan Bowl
Kirby Sensible and the Dawgs will tackle a Thundering Herd workforce that misplaced most of its gamers to the portal, as Charles Huff took most of his guys with him to Southern Miss. Tony Gibson is the person at Marshall now, making his head teaching debut after serving as NC State’s defensive coordinator for 5 seasons. Why am I calling this the Jim Donnan Bowl? As a result of Donnan was the top coach at each faculties, going 64-21 in six seasons at Marshall and 40-19 in 5 seasons at Georgia. The legendary coach went 4-0 in Bowl video games for Georgia and nonetheless lives in Athens.
Flashback of ’98 for Vols and Orange
Syracuse and Tennessee must be taking part in for the primary time, proper? Incorrect! The 2 orange groups have met thrice prior, with the final matchup happening in 2001. What’s extra noteworthy is that the Volts opened their 1998 nationwide title season towards No. 17 Cuse, squeaking out a 34-31 win through a game-winning subject purpose. Donovan McNabb went 22-for-28 with 300 yards passing and two TDs for the Orange, whereas Tee Martin and Jamal Lewis totaled 284 yards of offense and 4 TDs for the Vols.
Large check for Street Runners to begin the 12 months
Jeff Traylor is getting into Yr 6 with UTSA, highlighted by a 12-2 season in 2021 adopted by an 11-3 marketing campaign in 2022. Whereas he’s solely 16-10 over the past two seasons, he’s received back-to-back bowl video games and brings again Owen McCown underneath middle, who completed final 12 months as one in all 11 FBS QBs to document over 3,700 yards of complete offense, 25-plus complete TDs and 10 or fewer INTs. The Roadrunners are three-TD ‘canine towards a highly-talented Texas A&M workforce, but when they’ll preserve it shut, there’s an actual likelihood they find yourself favored in each recreation the remainder of the best way.
The debut of Nico Iamaleava
There may not have been a participant with a extra drama-filled offseason than Nico Iamaleava. After requesting a elevate for his NIL to be $4 million with the Vols, the previous five-star recruit entered the portal and ended up signing for a reported $1.5 million with the Bruins. From what I’ve heard, he’s regarded even higher than Bruins coaches anticipated. A Los Angeles native, he’ll tackle a Utah protection that completed twenty fifth in FBS in scoring protection final season and third in third-down protection. Utah additionally has a brand new face underneath middle, with Devon Dampier coming from New Mexico. He rushed for 1,166 yards and 19 TDs, rating within the prime 5 amongst FBS quarterbacks in each classes final season. Kyle Whittingham’s squad is likely to be coming into the season with fewer nationwide expectations than regular, which is at all times a very good factor. I feel it needs to be favored to win the Large 12.
Sneaky matchup in New Orleans
Tulane will host Northwestern as 4.5-point favorites in its opener. That is the kind of recreation that may form a story for both workforce or league. If Tulane, the AAC favourite, loses at house to one of many worst groups within the Large Ten, that may sting. Conversely, if the Wildcats pull off the upset on the street, it would solely gas the notion that Large Ten soccer is dominant. Given the sluggish begin for the Mountain West this season, there’s an actual likelihood the AAC winner would be the Group of 5 consultant within the CFP.
Outdated Faculty Pac-12 after darkish
How a few good old style Pac-12 after-dark matchup?! Cal travels to Corvallis to tackle Oregon State in a ten:30 ET kickoff. The Bears must change their 2024 leaders in passing, speeding, receiving, tackles, sacks, interceptions, and go breakups, whereas Oregon State brings in switch QB Maalik Murphy from Duke. He threw for two,993 yards and 26 TDs final season.
Chris “The Bear” Fallica has lined sports activities for almost three many years. Whereas school soccer has been his focus, he additionally enjoys the NFL, Soccer, Golf, Tennis, MLB, NHL and Horse Racing, with an “occasional” wager on such occasions. Chris lately received the inaugural Circa Soccer Invitational and completed within the Prime 10 of the Golden Nugget Soccer Contest. He is a multiple-time qualifier for the NHC Handicapping Championship. Bear in mind, “The much less you wager, the extra you lose once you win!” Comply with him on Twitter @chrisfallica.
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