Geoff Schwartz
FOX Sports activities Betting Analyst
Recreation 7. Two of the perfect phrases in sports activities.
This might be very true when the Indiana Pacers and the Oklahoma Metropolis Thunder take the courtroom on Sunday for the ultimate sport of the 2025 NBA Finals.
Dillon Jones of the Oklahoma Metropolis Thunder and Obi Toppin of the Indiana Pacers struggle for a rebound through the fourth quarter in Recreation 6
The Pacers dominated Recreation 6, tied the sequence after which pressured a Recreation 7.
OKC now has the chance to bounce again from a poor efficiency. However the Thunder will want guys to step up.
After the season-saving Recreation 6 win for Indiana, each groups have an opportunity to clinch their first championship on Sunday.
With that in thoughts, I see 4 wagers which have worth proper now.
Let’s dive into it.
Thunder first quarter
My favourite wager to make within the postseason is to take a workforce coming off a loss to cowl the primary quarter within the subsequent sport when they’re taking part in at residence.
It’s an excellent higher wager with a workforce like Oklahoma Metropolis, which is incredible at residence.
The Thunder have received and lined the primary quarter in all three residence video games of this sequence. In addition they received and lined 4 of the primary six quarters following a loss. This final loss was gnarly. It marked the worst offensive efficiency by the Thunder this season.
They shot simply 26% from three-point vary, with most of their makes coming throughout rubbish time. They’d 21 turnovers and had been out-rebounded.
On condition that poor efficiency, it’s frequent for groups to play higher of their subsequent sport at residence. I count on the Thunder to start out quick on Sunday night time.
PICK: Thunder (-3.5) first quarter
My participant props for Recreation 7 are all zigzag props. The idea includes betting the other facet of a participant prop following both an terrible night time or one which’s been too good.
For instance, in Recreation 6, Aaron Wiggins was the right fade alternative. At residence in Recreation 5, he scored 14 factors, however in Recreation 6, he went Beneath 5.5 factors.
Protecting this in thoughts, listed here are my participant prop picks for Recreation 7.
Alex Caruso Over 8.5 Factors
Caruso performed 22 minutes in Recreation 6 and didn’t rating a single level.
He solely tried two pictures, the least variety of pictures he’s taken in a sport since logging 12 minutes in Recreation 1 in opposition to the Grizzlies. Caruso has scored simply two factors within the final two video games whereas taking part in 51 minutes. There have been situations this postseason the place he has fewer factors than standard in two straight video games, solely to observe that up by scoring over 8.5 factors.
He scored 10 factors in Recreation 4 in opposition to the Nuggets after simply 9 within the earlier two video games and reached 10 factors in opposition to the Wolves in Recreation 4 after solely scoring 12 within the final two video games.
Caruso would possibly see extra taking part in time as nicely. The Thunder have been tweaking their lineups, and he is a part of probably the most optimum lineup. He’ll get the prospect to surpass 8.5 factors.
PICK: Alex Caruso Over 8.5 factors
Alex Caruso handles the ball in opposition to the Indiana Pacers through the third quarter in Recreation 4 of the 2025 NBA Finals
Jalen Williams Over 9.5 rebounds and assists
Like the remainder of his workforce, Jalen Williams had an off night time in Recreation 6, however he had been tremendous dependable within the earlier 5 video games of this sequence.
He’s recorded not less than 10 rebounds and assists in 4 of these 5 video games. Wanting again to the prior two sequence, he’s exceeded 9.5 rebounds and assists in six of the final eight video games. Additional, he’s managed not less than 10 rebounds and assists in 4 of the six video games following a Thunder loss.
Williams has taken extra management of the Thunder’s offense in current video games, particularly because the Pacers preserve hounding SGA within the backcourt. Following a sport the place the Thunder didn’t shoot nicely or go a lot, I count on Williams to generate extra assists.
He’s typically across the basket as a consequence of who he’s guarding, so rebounds ought to be extra inside his attain. I like him Over right here.
PICK: Jalen Williams Over 9.5 rebounds and assists
Obi Toppin Beneath 10.5 factors
It’s powerful to fade somebody who’s sizzling, however that is the spot to do it.
Toppin has scored 17, 12 and 20 factors in his final three video games — which is probably the most factors he’s scored in a three-game stretch this postseason. He’s been a vibrant spot for the Pacers on the middle place, particularly with Myles Turner struggling the final three video games.
Can Toppin do it once more? 4 straight video games, plus a Recreation 7 on the street? These are usually not the video games the place position gamers usually shine.
PICK: Obi Toppin Beneath 10.5 factors
Geoff Schwartz is an NFL analyst for FOX Sports activities. He performed eight seasons within the NFL for 5 completely different groups. He began at proper sort out for the College of Oregon for 3 seasons and was a second-team All-Pac-12 choice his senior 12 months. Observe him on Twitter @GeoffSchwartz.
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