Trump’s peculiar coverage playbook for China, India and Russia

President Donald Trump is pursuing an uncommon technique — courting Russian President Vladimir Putin, holding hearth on Beijing, all of the whereas turning the screws on an in depth ally: India.

Regardless of India being one of many earliest nations to interact in negotiations with the Trump administration, there’s nonetheless no signal of it sealing a take care of the U.S. New Delhi is now additionally looking at a secondary tariff of 25% or a “penalty” for its purchases of Russian oil that’s set to return into impact later this month.

U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent on Tuesday escalated criticism towards India, accusing it of profiteering from low-cost Russian oil imports and threatening to additional elevate tariffs on Indian items.

“Now we have deliberate to up the tariffs on India — these are secondary tariffs for purchasing the sanctioned Russian oil,” Bessent informed CNBC on Tuesday.

Earlier this week, White Home commerce advisor Peter Navarro condemned the Asian large’s dependence on Russian oil as “opportunistic” and undermined worldwide efforts to isolate Russia’s battle financial system.

“India acts as a worldwide clearinghouse for Russian oil, changing embargoed crude into high-value exports whereas giving Moscow the {dollars} it wants,” Navarro mentioned in an op-ed for the Monetary Occasions.

The sharp rhetoric threatens to unravel years of bettering ties between Washington and New Delhi — with India saying the U.S. was focusing on it unfairly over its Russian oil purchases.

“By now the world is getting used to the ad-hoc and generally contradictory methods wherein the Trump administration is pursuing its agenda,” mentioned Bert Hofman, professor on the East Asian Institute on the Nationwide College of Singapore.

India has emerged as a number one purchaser of Russian oil, which has been offered at a reduction since some Western nations shunned purchases and imposed restrictions on Russian exports over Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022.

It was the second-largest purchaser of Russian oil, importing 1.6 million barrels per day within the first half of this yr, up from 50,000 bpd in 2020, although nonetheless trailing China’s 2 million bpd imports, in line with the U.S. Vitality Info Administration. Washington has not positioned secondary tariffs on China for its Russian oil purchases.

India has reiterated that it was the U.S. administration that had requested it to buy Russian oil to maintain the markets calm, whereas pointing to the European Union and even the U.S.’ current commerce with Moscow.

The nation has taken goal at Washington, saying U.S. continues to import uranium hexafluoride for its nuclear trade, palladium for the electric-vehicle trade, in addition to fertilizers and chemical substances from Russia. U.S. bilateral commerce with Russia in 2024 stood at $5.2 billion, down from practically $36 billion in 2021, authorities knowledge confirmed.

Bilateral commerce between New Delhi and Moscow reached a report $68.7 billion for the yr ended March 2025. As compared, the European Union’s commerce with Russia stood at 67.5 billion euros ($78.1 billion) in 2024, whereas its providers commerce in 2023 was at 17.2 billion euros, in line with European Fee knowledge.

“India has been victimized by these stress techniques that that the Trump administration is attempting to hold out. Trump is clearly utilizing tariffs as a stress tactic towards Russia,” Michael Kugelman, director of the South Asia Institute at Washington-based assume tank Wilson Middle, informed CNBC’s “Squawk Field Asia.”

One other issue figuring out the U.S. method to India is that Trump feels “aggrieved,” over how Modi undercut his bid to assert credit score for enjoying a task within the India-Pakistan ceasefire, Kugelman emphasised.

Including to Trump’s grievances is India’s “unwillingness to decrease limitations” to exports of American agricultural merchandise similar to soybeans and corn, Kevin Chen Xian An, affiliate analysis fellow at S. Rajaratnam College of Worldwide Research identified.

Trump’s true agenda has little to do with Washington’s acknowledged objective of curbing Moscow’s oil revenues, however extracting leverages from the buying and selling companions, in line with a number of geopolitics specialists.

“The overarching goal for the Trump administration is to extract concessions from nations to determine some justification for levying taxes on commerce in order that the federal government can fund its tax reductions on Americans’ revenue,” mentioned Drew Thompson, senior fellow on the think-tank RSIS.

“It is not primarily based on overseas coverage ideas [but] on energy politics and gaining leverage,” Thompson added.

Final week, Trump rolled out a purple carpet to greet Putin on his first go to to the U.S. in a couple of decade, sharing a journey with him within the presidential limousine to the venue.

Whereas the assembly didn’t seem to have produced significant steps towards a ceasefire in Ukraine — a objective U.S. had set forward of the summit — however Trump described the assembly as “productive.”

Talking on the joint information briefing following the talks, Putin reiterated that “for the battle decision in Ukraine to be long-term and lasting, all of the root causes of the disaster … have to be eradicated; all of Russia’s legit considerations have to be taken under consideration.”

Kirill Dmitriev, one in every of Putin’s prime negotiators, hailed Monday’s talks in Washington as an “vital day of diplomacy,” emphasizing Moscow’s opposition to any short-term ceasefire take care of Ukraine.

Trump is attempting to “maximize his leverage … pressuring India, and Russia through India,” to get a commerce take care of the previous and a ceasefire pact with the latter, mentioned Matt Gertken, chief geopolitical and U.S. strategist at BCA Analysis. These will finally assist enhance Republicans’ prospects within the upcoming midterm election, Gertken added.

Whereas India faces steep tariffs for its purchases of Russian crude, China, which has remained the biggest importer of Russian crude, has been spared such levies. Trump mentioned final Friday he was not contemplating retaliatory tariffs on China for purchasing Russian oil, however may contemplate it in two or three weeks.

China’s purchases of Russian oil have risen to 46% of total exports from Russia within the first half of this yr, from 34% in 2022, in line with the U.S. Vitality Info Administration, adopted by India which imported round 36% of Russia’s provides. 

When requested about China’s position in Russian oil purchases, Bessent prompt that Beijing’s imports had been much less egregious within the eyes of the Trump administration as a result of it had already been a giant purchaser even earlier than Russia invaded Ukraine.

Going delicate on China may additionally mirror Trump’s need to not scuttle a possible high-profile summit with Chinese language President Xi Jinping within the coming months and the conclusion of a long-lasting commerce deal, mentioned Stephen Olson, a senior visiting fellow at ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute.

The secondary tariffs on India could also be meant as “a shot throughout Russia’s bow” to indicate that the U.S. may flip up the stress by extending comparable tariffs to China, if Russia is just not extra compliant, Olson added.

Following weeks of escalating tensions, Beijing and Washington agreed in Could to droop the hefty duties and loosen a number of punitive measures imposed in April, as either side continued to work on hammering out a sturdy deal.

Beijing has leveraged its sheer dominance of rare-earth minerals essential for navy and industrial use in its negotiations with Washington, sustaining a good management on exports of the vital minerals.

The connection with China is difficult, and the Trump administration has not but come out with “a transparent, coherent coverage towards China. Generally it looks like it desires to compete with China economically. Different occasions it looks like it desires to succeed in some sort of understanding or a or a detente,” Kugelman mentioned.