2025 NASCAR Playoff Image: Whose Bubble Will Burst?

As the regular season winds down and drivers make a run to land a spot in the NASCAR Cup Series playoffs, those outside the cutline are looking for wins.

A win guarantees a spot in the playoffs unless there are more winners than spots available. The 16 spots go to the regular-season champion and then 15 drivers based on wins with tiebreakers by points.

Right now — thanks to Shane van Gisbergen winning Sunday at Watkins Glen for his fourth victory of the year — there have been 13 winners with two races remaining, so everyone with a win will get in. 

The two races remaining in the regular season: Richmond (0.75-mile oval) and Daytona (2.5-mile drafting oval). Both have the potential to see new winners, but the odds are that at least one spot, if not more, will be available on points.

Here’s a breakdown of who’s in and who’s on the bubble when it comes to points and who needs a win.

Guaranteed Spots

Drivers with wins locked into the playoffs: Denny Hamlin and Shane van Gisbergen with four wins, Kyle Larson, Christopher Bell with three and William Byron with two. Plus those with one win: Chase Elliott, Ryan Blaney, Chase Briscoe, Bubba Wallace, Ross Chastain, Joey Logano, Austin Cindric and Josh Berry. 

Denny Hamlin owns a series-high four wins this season after conquering Dover.

No Win, Tiny Worry

Tyler Reddick. Reddick has a 57-point edge on the next winless driver (Alex Bowman) and currently sits 117 points above the playoff cutoff. If there were three new winners (and he’s not one of them), he’d be out. But he’s in relatively good shape and would clinch a spot after Richmond if he has a 57-point edge on the last driver ahead of the playoff cutoff (currently that is an 83-point margin on Buescher).

Tyler Reddick is still searching for his first win of 2025.

On Points Bubble

If there are two new winners, these drivers would most likely miss the field (unless they are among those winners). Here is how the bubble looks:

Bowman (+60 on the current cutoff), Chris Buescher (+34) and Ryan Preece (-34).

Must Win

The other 19 drivers either need incredible runs and luck without a win or more likely a victory to make the playoffs: Kyle Busch (-102), Ty Gibbs (-125), AJ Allmendinger (-129), Brad Keselowski (-153), Carson Hocevar (-156),  Erik Joens (-157), Michael McDowell (-160), John Hunter Nemechek (-160), Ricky Stenhouse Jr. (-198), Zane Smith (-203), Austin Dillon (-212), Daniel Suarez (-225), Justin Haley (-230), Todd Gilliland (-242), Ty Dillon (-263), Noah Gragson (-319), Cole Custer (-324), Riley Herbst (-331) and Cody Ware (-455).

Of those drivers, eight have never won a Cup race: Gibbs, Nemechek, Hocevar, Gilliland, Ty Dillon, Gragson, Herbst and Ware. 

Richmond Outlook

Of drivers who need a playoff spot, Busch (six wins), Keselowski (two), Buescher (one), Bowman (one) and Austin DIllon (one) have won at Richmond. Stenhouse has fourth and Preeece has a fifth.

Bob Pockrass covers NASCAR and INDYCAR for FOX Sports. He has spent decades covering motorsports, including over 30 Daytona 500s, with stints at ESPN, Sporting News, NASCAR Scene magazine and The (Daytona Beach) News-Journal. Follow him on Twitter @bobpockrass.

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