Why The Padres — Not The Dodgers — Are Finest Wager To Win Nationwide League

We saw perhaps the most exciting trade deadline in recent memory come and go on Thursday. 

I would love to recap all the deals, but it might be quicker to list the players who weren’t traded before the July 31 deadline. 

Seemingly every contender improved their team, or at least made a move they hope improves their team, and even some fringe contenders were surprisingly active. 

While I joke that more players were traded than not this week, it’s important to note some of the big names that didn’t get dealt, despite much speculation that they would. 

Zac Gallen, Sandy Alcantara, Mackenzie Gore, and Mitch Keller were some of the starting pitchers who were heavily rumored to be traded to contenders, but all four will remain with their current squads. 

While the asking price for starting pitchers might have been exorbitant, relief pitchers were flying off the shelves like candy. Ryan Helsley, Jhoan Duran, Mason Miller, Camilo Doval and David Bednar are all former All-Star closers who now find themselves on a new team, and in the midst of a pennant race. On a day-to-day betting basis, a team to perhaps stay away from is the Minnesota Twins, who unloaded their five (five!) best relievers, as well as Carlos Correa, among others. 

But from a futures standpoint, there is one team that stole the show on deadline day.

The San Diego Padres are +1100 to make the World Series at DraftKings Sportsbook (a $10 bet wins $120 total). According to some, the Padres overpaid for some of their new players, yielding many of their highly-coveted prospects. But for the sake of 2025, they are vastly improved and put themselves in the conversation for the deepest and best team in baseball. 

Ryan O’Hearn, Ramon Laureano, Mason Miller, Will Wagner, Nestor Cortes, JP Sears, and Freddy Fermin all fill holes and provide upgrades to the current roster, despite the costly package of prospects that went out the door. 

Miller, now the former A’s closer, is one of the best relief pitchers in baseball, and is added to what was already one of the best bullpens in the league. O’Hearn is an All-Star outfielder this year, while the other players acquired provide a wealth of depth at their respective positions. 

One of the reasons I think we got such an active and exciting deadline is that teams sense an opening — an opportunity to win it all. The Dodgers were the clear-cut favorite heading into the season, but have simply been good, not great. With L.A. seemingly vulnerable, and the American League lacking a dominant team, franchises are going for it.

They must be thinking, “Why not us?”

The Mets, Mariners, and Yankees all added a ton of talent as well, and this is about as wide-open as the World Series race has ever felt. But from a betting perspective, those teams all have much shorter odds than the Padres, who, it’s easy to forget, led the Dodgers 2-1 last October and had two chances to eliminate the eventual champs in the division series. 

At 11-1, the Padres to win the NL is an excellent bet.

PICK: Padres (+1100) to win the National League

Will Hill, a contributor on the Bear Bets Podcast, has been betting on sports for over a decade. He is a betting analyst who has been a host on VSiN, as well as the Goldboys Network.

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