Welcome to March Madness — a nickname earned through decades of chaos, where little-known programs take down the sport’s biggest brands. We call those bracket-busting teams “Cinderellas.”
They’re fun to root for, but picking the right ones? That’s where things get tricky.
Even with a job that revolves around studying these teams, predicting what happens in a single-elimination tournament is never easy. So while I can’t promise perfection, I can give you a head start.
2026 NCAA TOURNAMENT GAMBLING GUIDE
Here are five Cinderella candidates I believe have the best chance to win a game — or maybe even make a run in this year’s NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament.
How are we defining a Cinderella Team? A team seeded No. 9 or lower that also comes from outside the five power conferences: ACC, SEC, Big Ten, Big 12, and Big East.
[MEN’S BRACKET: NCAA Tournament Bracket]
5. Santa Clara, WCC, 26-8 (15-13)
The Broncos proved how dangerous they can be with a win over a strong Saint Mary’s team in the WCC semifinals. Head coach Herb Sendek has been around the block and knows what it takes to win in March — and he’s got the talent to do it.
Santa Clara leans heavily on the 3-point shot, with nearly 45% of its attempts coming from beyond the arc. When those shots don’t fall, they crash the glass hard, ranking among the top 25 teams in the nation in offensive rebounding percentage.
Player to watch: Sophomore guard Christian Hammond averages 16 points per game, shoots 40% from deep, and poured in 24 points against Gonzaga in the WCC title game.
4. Utah State, Mountain West, 28-6 (15-5)
Head coach Jerrod Calhoun (no relation to UConn legend Jim Calhoun) is in his second season in Logan, and this group has taken a clear step forward from last year’s team that fell to UCLA in the first round as a 10-seed.
The Aggies are disruptive on defense, ranking 16th nationally in forced turnovers, but their real strength is on the offensive end, where they sit inside the top 30 in efficiency, according to KenPom.
Player(s) to watch: Mason Falslev and MJ Collins, who combine to average 34 points per game.
3. Saint Louis, A-10, 28-5 (15-3)
On Feb. 13, the Billikens were 24-1 and ranked in the top 25. They’ve gone just 4-4 since and now find themselves in Cinderella territory.
St. Louis plays fast, shoots a blistering 40.5% from 3-point range, and features incredible balance, with seven players averaging nine points or more.
The Billikens’ résumé is legit too, with wins over Santa Clara and a regular-season sweep of VCU. The question now is, can they take down one of the heavyweights?
Player to watch: The headliner is Robbie Avila, a 6-foot-10, goggle-wearing center who leads the team in both points and assists and goes by the nickname “Cream Abdul Jabar.” He might not have the signature hook shot, but he’s knocked down 62 3-pointers this season.
2. South Florida, American, 25-8 (15-3)
Led by first-year head coach Bryan Hodgson, the Bulls enter the NCAA Tournament on an 11-game winning streak with a 25–8 record. They’ve built their identity on defense, ranking 40th nationally in efficiency according to KenPom. Offensively, they push the pace and relentlessly attack the offensive glass.
Player(s) to Watch: Wes Enis has emerged as a go-to scorer, putting up 19 or more points in seven of the team’s final eight games. But the heart and soul of this group is 6-foot-10 senior Izaiyah Nelson, the American Athletic Conference Player of the Year, who nearly averages a double-double (15.7 points, 9.6 rebounds).
He has all the makings of an NCAA Tournament darling.
[MEN’S BRACKET: Expert Predictions and Analysis]
1. Akron, MAC, 29-5 (17-1)
The Zips are 0-7 all-time in the NCAA Tournament, but I’ve got them winning a couple of games. It’s hard not to love their offensive firepower, especially with a 10-game winning streak heading into March.
Their path hasn’t been perfect — they split with Miami (OH), dropping a three-point game on the road — but they bounced back to win the MAC Tournament, and they’re playing their best basketball at the right time.
Akron is elite offensively, ranking in the top 15 nationally in both 3-point percentage (38.5%) and 2-point percentage (59.1%). They’ll need every bit of that efficiency against Texas Tech.
Player(s) to watch: The backcourt duo of Tavari Johnson and Shammah Scott has combined for 146 made threes this season.
At this point, the formula is simple: let it rip.
