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Opinion | Post Iran: Vance vs. Carlson in 2028?
Opinion

Opinion | Post Iran: Vance vs. Carlson in 2028?

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Last updated: March 5, 2026 11:36 pm
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Published: March 5, 2026
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You’re telling a story where there’s a big breakdown, an attack on the administration from the antiwar right. – What happens to Vance? – Well, I think, No. 1, the biggest macro question is whether or not Rubio is going to run against Vance. So I think that’s the first open question, because you could imagine a Vance-Rubio duel, right. And then I think this stuff actually becomes extremely salient because Vance’s clear allies are the interventionists. – Right, but —— – Rubio is clearly the establishment. But Vance can’t make an argument that his own administration’s policies have failed. I think he might have to. I want to be clear. So what was the central mistake that Kamala Harris made? Among many. But the central one was, I think, the no daylight policy with Biden. I think Vance is going to have to innovate beyond that if he wants to be the president. And is there anyone besides Tucker who you imagine as a standard bearer for a right wing insurgent campaign? Is there going to be a right- wing insurgent campaign challenge to Vance? So we’re talking about flanks basically here, right. Well, there’s the establishment flank. You’ve got DeSantis, Haley, Cruz. Those people are all going to try to flank Vance from like, it’s just a court. We can go back. But if —— But if the Iraq war —— Sorry, Freudian slip happening here. Everyone who’s for the war is doing this. This is where we end, with the Freudian slip. If the Iran war is seen as a failure, it seems to me that the action in the party – is not Ron DeSantis running against —— – Tell that to Ron DeSantis. I’m just saying the action is who becomes the voice of this failed narrative. You’re saying, one, it could be Vance himself —— It’s the Sanders lane. That’s what Sanders did in 2016 was implicitly critical of the incumbent Democratic president. But it seems to me, incredibly difficult for Vance – to do it. – Yeah, I agree. So then it’s Tucker. Is there anyone else? Well, yes, I think it depends how many of them run, but I think there’s clearly four potential anti-interventionist critics of Vance who could run. It is Carlson. It is Bannon. It is Marjorie Taylor Greene. It is Thomas Massie. Those were the four I flag. I struggle to imagine any of those four winning a one-on-one race. But it may be against Vance against Vance. – My imagination —— – It’s not going to be a one-on-one race. I think it’s very clear that Vance will probably have at least one competitor within his own administration. So if it’s not Rubio, Hegseth, Kristi Noem, I think, have been talked to. Sorry, I smile. I’m smiling. Seriously? No, well, Corey Lewandowski’s managed one successful —— Then last question is this, though. If the war goes — if the war goes badly, does any of this conversation matter or is it just a poisoned chalice and no one should want to —— That’s what I — that’s what I’m arguing. That’s why Rubio centers are so perverse. I think he is the most untrustworthy politically in the administration.

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