The killing of a powerful drug lord in Mexico could be an inflection point for President Claudia Sheinbaum and her bilateral relationship with the United States. The operation wherein Nemesio Rubén “El Mencho” Oseguera Cervantes, the boss of the powerful Jalisco New Generation Cartel, was killed relied heavily on U.S. intelligence.
This is proof of increasing cooperation between the U.S. and Mexico, something that was severely damaged when Sheinbaum’s predecessor, Andrés Manuel López Obrador was in charge. It also demonstrates that López Obrador’s appeasement strategy was a huge mistake, allowing cartels to become more powerful.
Credit to Sheinbaum, who has managed her relationship with U.S. President Donald Trump with deft pragmatism. She has navigated repeated threats to use U.S. military force against cartels on Mexican soil; she has avoided the full impact of tariffs with swift negotiations and, most recently, she chose Mexico over Cuba, suspending oil shipments to the island under pressure from the Trump administration.
Sheinbaum has correctly weighed the costs of deeper cooperation and managed the political capital not only with her constituents but with the Trump administration. This is a delicate balance, and she has proven adept.
Sheinbaum has turned over dozens of cartel members to U.S. justice and deployed Mexican troops to the border for immigration enforcement. But she has also been under pressure to allow joint operations between Mexican and U.S military forces. She has so far resisted going that far, opting instead for greater information sharing and allowing the U.S. to play an enhanced role.
Sheinbaum is showing the Trump administration that she is serious about taking down cartel drug lords, even with the consequences. After El Mencho’s death, gang members unleashed violence, with cars torched and blocked roads in at least 20 Mexican states, forcing people to shelter in place.
This is evidence of the cartel’s power but also of its vulnerability. The killing of its leader brings uncertainty. Observers have noted that this organization is prone to fragmentation, which risks further violence. This is the practical problem with the approach known as the kingpin strategy. New leaders stand ready to take their place and reap the rewards with the risks.
With the help of the U.S., Sheinbaum needs to go further, sustaining a fight against cartel networks while rooting out corruption. Granted, this goes both ways: The U.S. has a responsibility as the primary consumer of drugs and the main supplier of weapons.
An effective strategy requires a multinational approach. Trump was right to push Sheinbaum to take action, something U.S. administrations have failed too often to do.
The killing of El Mencho could mark a new era in the U.S.-Mexico strategic partnership. Time will tell where this will lead, but this step was necessary.
The Dallas Morning News/Tribune News Service
