Japan’s ruling LDP seen winning outright majority in snap poll: NHK

Japan’s ruling Liberal Democratic Party has likely strengthened its majority in the country’s Lower House, with the LDP capturing between 274 and 328 in the 465 seat chamber, according to an early projection by broadcaster NHK.

This was broadly in line with what polls had suggested, with Nikkei and Asahi Shimbun predicting that the LDP and its coalition partner, the Japan Innovation Party would secure more then 300 seats in the Lower House.

NHK projected the coalition would win up to 366 seats.

People trudged through heavy snow in several parts of the country to cast their votes.

Before parliament was dissolved, the LDP-JIP coalition held a combined 230 seats, and with three independents voting with the LDP, this effectively gave the ruling coalition a one seat majority in the chamber.

Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi, Japan’s first female leader, dissolved the Lower House on Jan. 23, a move that was seen as an attempt to quickly strengthen the ruling coalition’s position in the chamber by capitalizing on her high public approval ratings.

“Takaichi now has the LDP and the technocrats exactly where she always wanted them,” economist Jesper Koll said in a Substack post.

“The LDP is now beholden to her; and the elite technocrats now know she’ll be in power for at least two or three more years … so they have no choice but to invest their career in her success,” Koll added.

Polls compiled by Japanese media outlet Nippon.com showed that Takaichi remained popular heading into the election, although her support had slipped slightly in the recent weeks.

The outlet reported that just one domestic poll in January indicated more than 70% support, compared to three in December, while six polls showed support in the 60% range, up from four in the previous month.

Meanwhile, the Central Reform Alliance, made up of the former Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan and Komeito, the LDP’s former coalition partner, was likely to pick up between 37 and 91 seats.

The CDP was the largest opposition party before its merger with Komeito, holding 148 seats, while Komeito controlled 24 seats.

The election comes amid heightened tensions between Japan and China, as well as persistent concerns over the yen’s weakness and inflation in the country.

Japan has endured inflation above the Bank of Japan’s target for 45 consecutive months, declining real wages and persistent yen weakness.

The most recent inflation reading stood at 2.1%, while full-year inflation reached 3.2%. Real wages fell for 11 consecutive months year-on-year in 2025, and on a yearly basis, real wages have fallen every year since 2022.

The yen weakened further at the start of 2026, briefly approaching the 160 level against the U.S. dollar. While a weaker currency benefits exporters, it has also amplified imported inflation.

Takaichi had earlier laid out a record $783 billion budget for the next fiscal year starting April 1, on top of a $135 billion stimulus package introduced last year to help households with rising living costs.

“Watch for more state-directed initiatives to create ‘national champions’, levering the $550 [billion] U.S.-Japan investment deal to create a sense of urgency amongst reluctant CEOs,” Koll said. “Japan’s M&A boom will get turbo-charged to create greater economies of scale, and thus more credible global competitiveness — all this in the name of higher national economic security.”

— Azhar Sukri contributed to this story