Former U.S. NATO Ambassador Kurt Volker typically jokes that, in response to geopolitical threats, “the European default setting is to attend, fear, and complain.”
However that quip doesn’t appear honest in relation to Europe’s newest tensions with U.S. President Donald Trump over Greenland. Two weeks of turmoil sparked by Trump’s push to take management of the island “somehow” have pressured the continent to just accept that its strongest ally can not be counted as one. It stays to be seen whether or not Europe’s contemporary sense of urgency will endure—and translate into actual strategic autonomy.
For a number of weeks this month, Trump refused to rule out a army intervention to grab Greenland—though he mentioned that he wouldn’t use pressure to amass the territory throughout an handle on the World Financial Discussion board in Davos, Switzerland, on Wednesday. Trump, who has been obsessive about the autonomous Danish territory since his first time period, insists america must personal it as a way to forestall it from falling into Russian or Chinese language palms. Most consultants agree that there’s at the moment no such threat.
“At first Europeans had been astonished, a NATO member desirous to seize the territory of one other NATO member appeared unimaginable. However as soon as the astonishment wore down, they reacted nicely,” mentioned Nathalie Loiseau, a French member of the European Parliament from the centrist Renew group who sits on the Overseas Affairs Committee.
With land managed by a European Union and NATO member out of the blue on the road, main European powers rallied behind Greenland, repeatedly affirming that the territory belongs solely to its folks. For as soon as, the continent’s leaders didn’t simply present empty phrases.
First, an intense, Denmark-led diplomatic effort on either side of the pond sought to defuse the disaster. Whereas a Jan. 14 assembly on the White Home ended with a “basic disagreement,” in keeping with Denmark’s international minister, the 2 sides did decide to holding future talks about Greenland. (They later sparred about what precisely these negotiations would entail.)
High Danish officers additionally held conferences with U.S. legislators, aiming to play a job within the dialog on Capitol Hill about learn how to make the most effective use of warfare powers laws to forestall a land seize in Greenland. Each Democrats and Republicans overwhelmingly oppose the concept of america taking up the Danish territory. A bipartisan proposal to cease Trump from threatening NATO unity has already been launched within the Senate, and different payments focusing particularly on Greenland are within the congressional pipeline.
In the meantime, beginning final week, international locations together with France, Germany, Sweden, Norway, Finland, the Netherlands, and the UK deployed a small variety of troops to Greenland for a “reconnaissance mission.” The operation, whereas largely symbolic, was determined and launched inside days, a swift response by European requirements. “Europeans have realized that they should enhance the price of a possible American intervention,” mentioned Florent Parmentier, secretary-general of Sciences Po’s Middle for Political Analysis.
Precisely what number of troops will likely be stationed there sooner or later stays unclear. Germany has already withdrawn its contingent, whereas French President Emmanuel Macron mentioned the preliminary staff of French troopers “will likely be strengthened within the coming days with land, air, and sea belongings.”
Trump introduced over the weekend that, beginning on Feb. 1, he intends to impose a ten p.c tariff on the international locations taking part within the mission. That sparked contemporary outrage throughout the continent, with EU leaders as a consequence of talk about retaliation choices at an emergency assembly later this week. Within the meantime, the European Parliament has placed on maintain the ratification of a U.S.-EU commerce deal clinched final yr. The settlement was broadly seen as an try to appease Trump with situations favorable to america. A majority of Europeans thought-about the compact a “humiliation,” in keeping with polling.
However whereas European leaders seem resolute, the Greenland disaster can also be as soon as once more laying naked how laborious it’s for the continent to behave as a united energy on the world stage.
In response to Trump’s tariff threats, some momentum is constructing amongst EU members to set off the bloc’s Anti-Coercion Instrument, which permits for a collection of punitive measures towards rivals, together with commerce funding restrictions and sanctions on mental property rights. But the so-called commerce bazooka can solely be adopted after a prolonged course of involving each the European Fee and the Council of the European Union. It additionally requires the backing of a certified majority of member states, which is hardly a given in the mean time.
European governments have already taken divergent stances on how confrontational Europe needs to be towards america. France, with its long-standing obsession for European strategic autonomy, is on the hawkish aspect. In his annual handle to the French Armed Forces final week, Macron condemned “the brand new colonialism in motion amongst some”; he was additionally the primary chief to invoke the commerce bazooka over the weekend. A French minister explicitly mentioned that the troop deployment to Greenland was meant to sign to america that “Europeans are decided to defend their sovereignty.”
However with Europeans additionally eager to protect a glimmer of hope about U.S. safety ensures for Ukraine, most capitals are placing a much less bellicose tone.
The European Fee mentioned on Monday that its precedence stays “to have interaction, not escalate.” German officers have been cautious, too. “We, as NATO, are in a position and keen to do one thing alongside the U.S. to discourage any aggression on Greenland by Russia or China,” mentioned Jürgen Hardt, the foreign-policy spokesperson of the ruling Christian Democratic Union within the German parliament. “NATO is within the strategy of planning what to do and learn how to do it, and Germany will contribute to that,” he added.
Italy, which didn’t ship any troops, even slammed the fragmented nationwide deployments with out NATO coordination. “Fifteen Italians, 15 French, 15 Germans—it feels like the start of a joke to me,” quipped Italy’s protection minister on Friday.
Joke or not, many analysts query Europeans’ resolve in case of precise U.S. armed aggression. “Are they keen to lose troopers defending Greenland towards American troops? Probably not,” mentioned Andreas Osthagen, a analysis director at Norway’s Fridtjof Nansen Institute.
The function of EU establishments within the disaster has been restricted to this point. The European Fee, which had already doubled funding for Greenland’s growth in a draft for its 2028-2034 funds, has now pledged unwavering help for the island—together with with further money and investments. The European response to Trump’s tariffs can also be being coordinated on the EU degree. Nonetheless, particular person states—notably Denmark, France, and Germany—have largely led diplomatic efforts at reining in Washington.
In terms of army means, the EU disposes of a “Speedy Deployment Capability” of as much as 5,000 troops. However its use for deterrence functions in Greenland would require unanimity of all 27 members, a situation so unlikely that EU officers have hardly talked about it. Any critical army buildup must be executed on the nationwide degree, ideally with NATO coordination, though in case of U.S. aggression towards Greenland, the alliance would discover itself in uncharted waters—caught, on the very least, if not utterly useless.
In the meantime, regardless of rising discuss concerning the want for European strategic autonomy, Europe’s long-standing weaknesses nonetheless exist. EU army spending has gone up considerably since Russia’s 2022 full-scale invasion of Ukraine, with the bloc’s mixed protection budgets ballooning from €218 billion in 2021 (about $248 billion) to an estimated €392 billion (roughly $459 billion) in 2025. However a lot of the additional money has gone into purchases of American weapons programs, with European dependency on america growing over the previous few years as a substitute of declining.
European armaments applications proceed to be woefully fragmented and poorly built-in. And Brussels typically dangers mistaking grandiose bulletins for precise progress: Final week, European Fee President Ursula von der Leyen declared it was time for “a brand new European safety technique” however gave just about zero particulars on what that new technique would entail.
For Europe, the Greenland disaster is the loudest wake-up name but concerning the hostile new posture of america, its onetime ally and protector. Regardless of the continent’s limits, the way in which its leaders have reacted to Trump’s threats over the previous weeks demonstrates that this harsh new actuality is sinking in. “Our inside variations shouldn’t be exaggerated,” mentioned Loiseau, the French member of the European Parliament. “The overall consensus is that the U.S. transfer [on Greenland] must be stopped.”
