How many times can we say that this is one of the best times of the year?
Not only do we have the NFL Divisional Round, and not only do we have the CFP championship game — we also have the Australian Open, as the new tennis season is just beginning.
Let’s get into my best bets for all three of those big events.
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No. 10 Miami vs. No. 1 Indiana
This line has gotten way too big, in my opinion.
On “Bear Bets,” I explained why that is. But essentially, we’ve seen a 5-point move or so from the start of the Playoff, in which Miami has beaten two one-loss SEC teams and the defending national champs.
Yes, Indiana dominated both Alabama and Oregon, but this big of a move is kind of nuts. Heck, prior to the year, Miami would have been favored in this matchup.
Miami has beaten four teams that are power rated in the top 10 this season, and while Indiana is No. 1 in those power ratings, the Canes have a great chance at an outright win here.
Miami’s line play — on both sides of the ball — is the best in the country and will provide a stern test for the Heisman winner and undefeated Indiana. I’d expect Miami to do a lot of the things it did against Ohio State and Ole Miss, like ball control and long drives, to help its defense, as the Hurricanes will be without one of their best corners in the first half because of a targeting penalty in the second half against Ole Miss.
If there’s one thing that concerns me about the matchup being a Miami backer, it’s this first half and how the Canes can successfully defend against chunk plays and back-shoulder throws by Fernando Mendoza to his receiving corps.
Do not underestimate how well the Hurricanes have played as an underdog this season. It’s a big deal. It doesn’t mean Miami will win, but disrespect goes a long way when it comes to motivation. Indiana hasn’t cracked all season, and we’ll see if the pressure of the final hurdle, along with a very good Miami team, will finally get that to happen.
My guess is that it will not be easy at all and Miami’s front will control play enough for the Canes to win national title No. 6. Regardless of who you root for, we’re getting a great story on Monday night. Either the losingest team of all time (at the time Curt Cignetti took over) wins one of the most improbable national titles imaginable or Mario Cristobal wins a national title at his alma mater.
PICK: Miami (+8.5) to lose by fewer than 8.5 points or win outright
Josh Allen O/U 8.5 rushing attempts
Any path to victory for Buffalo in Denver involves a monster effort from Josh Allen.
Despite his injuries, that likely means him using his legs. There are a lot of ways to get to nine carries — designed runs, scrambles, tush push, kneel downs.
Against a great Denver pass rush, Allen’s legs might be the most vital part of the Bills’ offensive attack.
PICK: Josh Allen Over 8.5 rushing attempts
Kyle Juszczyk O/U 1.5 receptions
We’ve seen Juszczyk be a part of the 49ers’ offense in Super Bowls and other big games.
With George Kittle suffering an unfortunate injury last week, Kyle Shanahan looked to the fullback to fill the void for some of that production. He had four catches in the win over the Eagles, and it certainly seems like at least two are in the cards this week.
PICK: Kyle Juszczyk Over 1.5 receptions
Jannik Sinner to win Australian Open
Better prices were available in recent weeks, but the draw has reinforced Sinner’s status as the favorite in Melbourne. He’s won the last two Australian Opens and three of the last four slams on hard court, and he is -700 to win his quarter. That likely means a semifinal appearance is a near certainty.
His semifinal opponent would be either Novak Djokovic or Lorenzo Musetti if form holds. At that point, it’s a coin-flip match where Sinner would be a favorite over Carlos Alcaraz — and its certainly no guarantee Alcaraz is there with his recent coaching switch. Or, Sinner would be an even bigger favorite over someone else.
PICK: Jannik Sinner (-120) to win Australian Open
Chris “The Bear” Fallica has covered sports for nearly three decades. While college football has been his focus, he also enjoys the NFL, Soccer, Golf, Tennis, MLB, NHL and Horse Racing, with an “occasional” wager on such events. Chris recently won the inaugural Circa Football Invitational and finished in the Top 10 of the Golden Nugget Football Contest. He’s a multiple-time qualifier for the NHC Handicapping Championship. Remember, “The less you bet, the more you lose when you win!” Follow him on Twitter @chrisfallica.
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