Welcome again to Overseas Coverage’s State of affairs Report. John is flying solo this week as Rishi enjoys some much-deserved break day, however he’s acquired some help from his implausible FP colleague Christina Lu.
Alright, right here’s what’s on faucet for the day: Trump seems to again down on putting Iran, NATO allies rally round Greenland, and section 2 of Trump’s Gaza plan (type of) begins.
U.S. President Donald Trump seems to have backed away from taking navy motion in opposition to Iran—for the second, not less than—for its brutal, lethal crackdown on anti-government protests. Trump threatened to hit Iran arduous if it continued to kill protesters however stored shifting the goalposts whilst experiences of massacres trickled by a communications blackout imposed by the Iranian authorities.
The protests, which started in late December and had been maybe the biggest within the Islamic Republic because the 1979 revolution, have seemingly been squashed. Trump alluded to this in feedback on Wednesday. The “killing has stopped,” Trump mentioned, including that Iran had additionally referred to as off deliberate executions of detained protesters. Some estimates have positioned the dying toll from the crackdown as excessive as 3,000, with greater than 16,000 folks arrested.
Late on Wednesday, there have been nonetheless varied indicators {that a} U.S. strike may very well be impending—together with a precautionary evacuation of some U.S. personnel from key bases within the area. By Thursday morning, nevertheless, the prospect of a kinetic strike appeared to have fizzled out—together with the demonstrations. Iran on Thursday reopened its airspace after a short-lived closure introduced the day prior, in a sign that Tehran wasn’t anticipating a U.S. assault.
The protests ending and Iran apparently holding off on executions of protesters “have given [Trump] an out,” Gregory Brew, an Iran analyst with Eurasia Group, instructed SitRep.
Trump additionally confronted strain from Gulf international locations together with Saudi Arabia, Oman, and Qatar to not transfer ahead with strikes over considerations that such a transfer would contribute to regional instability and damage their pursuits. Qatar is residence to Al Udeid, the biggest U.S. navy base within the Center East, which was focused by Iran after Trump ordered historic strikes on a number of of its nuclear amenities in late June 2025. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu additionally urged Trump to postpone any plans for an assault on Iran, per the New York Instances, amid considerations that such a transfer may do extra hurt than good presently.
Unfold too skinny. It has additionally not been misplaced on many observers that Trump’s threats towards Iran have come as clashes between protesters and U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) brokers in Minneapolis have escalated following the deadly capturing of Renee Nicole Good by an ICE agent on Jan. 7. Trump on Thursday threatened to invoke the Rebellion Act and deploy the navy in Minneapolis if the protests don’t die down.
That is all occurring on the identical time that Trump is rattling main European allies along with his push to amass Greenland and simply days after an astonishing U.S. navy operation in Venezuela that resulted within the seize of President Nicolás Maduro.
In his second time period, Trump has repeatedly exhibited a willingness to make use of the navy anyplace and all over the place. However, within the course of, Trump has additionally hamstrung himself. The U.S. navy is essentially the most highly effective and well-financed drive on the planet, however it nonetheless has limits.
By sustaining such a big navy presence within the Caribbean, even after the Maduro operation, Trump had fewer choices to answer the violence in Iran and likewise needed to take into account the truth that Tehran was more likely to make good on its menace to retaliate in opposition to any U.S. actions.
“There aren’t sufficient belongings in place to each ship a decisive strike that he desires whereas additionally defending U.S. bases and allies from Iranian retaliation,” Brew mentioned.
An unsure future. It’s not clear what occurs subsequent. The Iranian authorities seems to have reasserted management for the second. Nevertheless it’s arduous to say whether or not which means the protests won’t flare up once more, significantly because the Iranian economic system continues to wrestle. The Iranian authorities has survived, however for the way lengthy is one other query.
The Treasury Division on Thursday additionally introduced recent sanctions in opposition to the “architects of the Iranian regime’s brutal crackdown on peaceable demonstrators,” together with safety officers reminiscent of Ali Larijani, the secretary of the Supreme Nationwide Safety Council, as a part of an obvious effort to proceed pressuring Tehran in opposition to additional violence. In the meantime, the U.S. seems to be conserving its navy choices open—together with by reportedly sending the USS Abraham Lincoln, a nuclear-powered supercarrier, to the area. This stays an area to look at carefully within the days forward.
Mykhailo Fedorov, 34, was formally appointed as Ukraine’s new protection minister by the nation’s parliament on Wednesday. Fedorov beforehand served as the primary deputy prime minister and digital transformation minister and is anticipated to position a robust emphasis on leveraging progressive expertise within the nation’s battle in opposition to Russia. “We’re obligated to defeat the enemy in each technological cycle to remain one, two, and even ten steps forward, thereby saving the lives of our troopers and destroying the adversary as successfully as doable,” Fedorov mentioned in a LinkedIn submit on Wednesday.
What needs to be excessive in your radar, if it isn’t already.
Troops in Greenland. A number of European international locations continued deploying troops to Greenland on Thursday, simply at some point after U.S., Danish, and Greenlandic officers met on the White Home for a high-stakes assembly over the island’s future that produced no main breakthroughs.
Trump has been adamant in his need to management Greenland—which is a semi-autonomous Danish territory—citing its significance for U.S. nationwide safety, even because the island’s leaders have repeatedly insisted that it’s not on the market. After assembly with U.S. officers, Denmark’s overseas minister conceded on Wednesday that Copenhagen and Washington “nonetheless have a basic disagreement” over the way forward for the island.
With all sides at an deadlock, NATO members are actually beefing up their navy presence on Greenland. In a present of unity with Denmark, France, Germany, the Netherlands, Norway, Sweden, and the UK are actually dispatching symbolic numbers of troops to the territory for a joint navy train. —Christina Lu
Section 2 in Gaza. The US on Wednesday introduced that section 2 of Trump’s peace plan for Gaza was shifting ahead. Steve Witkoff, the president’s particular envoy, on Wednesday mentioned that the following section “establishes a transitional technocratic Palestinian administration in Gaza” and “begins the complete demilitarization and reconstruction of Gaza, primarily the disarmament of all unauthorized personnel.” Witkoff mentioned the U.S. expects Hamas to completely adjust to its obligations, together with returning the final deceased hostage, and warned of extreme penalties if it doesn’t.
However Hamas has been adamant that it’s going to not disarm. This stays a significant impediment to shifting the peace course of ahead, regardless of the robust discuss from Witkoff, together with the truth that Israel has not dedicated to completely withdrawing from the enclave—one other key side of Trump’s plan.
Many particulars on section 2 stay unsure, although the chief of the technocratic committee has been introduced: Ali Shaath, a former deputy minister within the Palestinian Authority. Trump is anticipated to announce the make-up of the Board of Peace, which can oversee the committee, within the coming days. However with the cease-fire nonetheless on shaky floor, truly demilitarizing Gaza will stay a significant problem because the U.S. tries to push issues ahead.
U.S. federal brokers set up a fringe in a residential space following a capturing in Minneapolis on Jan. 14. Scott Olson/Getty Photographs
SitRep on Thursday spoke with Adm. William J. Fallon, who was U.S. Central Command commander from 2007 to 2008, to get his ideas on the scenario in Iran and the potential for the U.S. to take motion there.
“The problem with me is the place are we going, what’s the strategic plan, the target, and what sort of thought has gone in that they might be considering, which I don’t know as a result of I’m not on the within,” Fallon mentioned, additionally emphasizing that Iran is a “darkish gap” in the meanwhile because of the regime’s success in blocking data entry on what’s occurring inside the nation.
Fallon just lately had a guide revealed on key classes from America’s post-9/11 wars: Choices, Discord & Diplomacy: From Cairo to Kabul. When requested concerning the U.S. navy posture within the Center East at current, Fallon mentioned the US has been “wrapped across the axle within the Center East for many years” and “can’t appear to get off.”
“The larger strategic problem is in Asia with China,” Fallon mentioned, underscoring that Beijing is cultivating relationships all over the place, together with the Center East.
Saturday, Jan. 17: Gen. Mamady Doumbouya is about to be inaugurated as president in Guinea.
Sunday, Jan. 18: Portugal is scheduled to carry presidential elections.
Monday, Jan. 19: The World Financial Discussion board’s annual assembly begins in Davos, Switzerland.
Wednesday, Jan. 21: Trump is about tackle the World Financial Discussion board assembly in Davos.
75—the share of People who say they oppose the US trying to take management of Greenland, in response to a new CNN ballot.
“Shut ties with our northernmost allies are what make America’s intensive attain within the Arctic truly doable. And I’ve but to listen to from this administration a single factor we’d like from Greenland that this sovereign folks is just not already prepared to grant us. Except and till the president can exhibit in any other case, then the proposition at hand right now may be very easy: incinerating the hard-won belief of loyal allies in trade for no significant change in U.S. entry to the Arctic.”
—Republican Sen. Mitch McConnell criticizing Trump’s push to amass Greenland.
