Thai Son S.P. Co. garment manufacturing facility in Thu Duc, Ho Chi Minh, Vietnam, on June 21, 2025.
Daniel Ceng | Anadolu | Getty Photographs
U.S. President Donald Trump introduced a commerce pact with Vietnam on Wednesday, however its scant particulars have left economists questioning about what it could imply for the stream of Chinese language items rerouted by means of the nation.
Trump stated Wednesday there could be a 20% tariff on items from Vietnam and a 40% “transshipping” tariff on items originating overseas and transferred to Vietnam for last cargo to the U.S.
Chinese language producers have used transshipping to sidestep the hefty tariffs on its direct shipments to the US, utilizing Vietnam as a serious transshipment hub.
White Home commerce advisor Peter Navarro alleged that round one-third of Vietnam’s exports are rerouted from China and described Vietnam as “basically a colony of communist China” in a interview with Fox Information in April.
The newest deal is an obvious strike in opposition to such rerouted shipments from China, stated Yao Jin, an affiliate professor of provide chain administration at Miami College.
However implementing focused levies on transshipments might be a troublesome job for Hanoi, because it should outline the scope of what would qualify as “made in Vietnam” and what constitutes transshipment.
“If it solely applies to pure transshipments — items despatched from China to the US through Vietnamese ports, with none native meeting — then there ought to hardly be any affect on Vietnam,” Frederic Neumann, chief Asia economist at HSBC Financial institution instructed CNBC on Friday.
Nonetheless, if the 40% tariff applies to “all Vietnamese items with even a minimal share of Chinese language parts, the disruptions may very well be vital,” Neumann stated.
Equally, Dan Wang, China director at Eurasia Group, stated “it’s unclear how this could work — presumably the burden falls to Hanoi on the issuance of guidelines of origin certificates — and what degree of Chinese language parts, if that’s the metric, might be deemed an excessive amount of.”
As extra Chinese language producers moved their manufacturing to Vietnam since Trump’s first time period, Vietnam’s commerce surplus with the U.S. greater than tripled to a file excessive of $123.5 billion final yr from lower than $40 billion in 2018, in accordance with the U.S. Census Bureau.
Template for others?
The settlement made Vietnam the most recent nation, after the U.Ok. and China, to safe some commerce aid from Trump and can seemingly function an necessary reference for different Southeast Asian nations of their ongoing commerce negotiations, analysts stated.
Many nations are racing to achieve commerce offers with the U.S. earlier than the 90-day pause expires on July 9, when Trump’s “reciprocal” tariffs are poised to take impact.
Many Southeast Asian nations had benefited from the final U.S.-China commerce warfare throughout Trump’s first time period by serving as different manufacturing and export hubs.
Extra commerce offers might be decided by a rustic’s personal judgment of its publicity to the U.S. and China markets, the extent of transshipment exercise in that nation, and the implications for native industries, stated Lynn Track, chief China economist at ING.
Shipments from China to many Southeast Asian nations this yr rose to a file excessive, Chinese language customs knowledge confirmed, as exporters diverted cargo to different markets to promote to the native markets or transship to the U.S.
If the Vietnam and U.Ok. commerce offers are any indication, the US’ future offers with different nations will seemingly contain measures to rein in transshipment, elevated buy commitments of U.S. items and “provisions aimed toward pressuring China,” Stephen Olson, former U.S. commerce negotiator and present visiting senior fellow on the ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute, instructed CNBC.
The strict safety necessities for metal and prescribed drugs within the U.S.-U.Ok. deal are broadly seen as an try and squeeze China out of the British provide chain.
China holds hearth
China pushed again in opposition to the U.S.-Vietnam commerce deal on Thursday over issues that the Trump administration would use its ongoing tariff negotiations with third nations to curb its exports.
The nation’s commerce ministry stated Thursday that it was “conducting an evaluation” of the settlement, urging different nations to not search a take care of Washington on the expense of China’s pursuits.
China will seemingly see Washington as utilizing “reciprocal tariff negotiations to get third nations to attempt to squeeze China out of provide chains,” Olson added. He expects Beijing will strain nations to not accede to U.S. calls for and push again in opposition to that apply in negotiations with Washington.
That stated, Beijing will seemingly maintain off from taking any concrete motion till particulars of the deal are clarified, specialists stated, whereas ready to see how different nations’ commerce offers form up.
“Flipping the desk over a single Vietnam commerce deal could be unwise,” ING’s Track stated.
The U.S. and China have in latest days walked again a slew of restrictive measures in opposition to one another in honor of the commerce consensus reached in Geneva, Switzerland, in Might. Washington has since lifted export restrictions on ethane, chip-design software program and jet engine elements, whereas Beijing is ready to fast-track approvals for uncommon earths exports.
Either side reached a commerce framework final month following talks in London, which stays in impact till mid-August, with Chinese language items at present going through tariffs of round 55%.
The U.S.-Vietnam deal additionally implies that the last word tariffs on Chinese language items are unlikely to fall beneath that 40% threshold, in accordance with Nick Marro, principal economist on the Economist Intelligence Unit, as decrease duties on direct cargo from China may encourage corporations to shift manufacturing again there, undermining the Trump administration’s broader goal of curbing China’s industrial capability.
