That escalated rapidly. We’re barely into 2026, and occasions are already unfolding that might meaningfully reshape the political panorama.
The loss of life of Renee Nicole Good, a 37-year-old mom and U.S. citizen who was shot and killed by an Immigration and Customs Enforcement agent in Minneapolis on Wednesday, has the potential to shake the political panorama in methods paying homage to George Floyd’s killing in 2020.
The Trump administration initially claimed Good “weaponized her automobile” in an act of “home terrorism,” an account that seems to be contradicted by video proof. Whether or not the incident escalates right into a broader political reckoning — or fades from public consideration — might decide its lasting impact on President Trump’s recognition and his immigration insurance policies.
In the meantime, Trump’s determination to invade Venezuela and seize then-President Nicolás Maduro stays controversial, even amongst a few of his followers.
The assault drew instant criticism from Marjorie Taylor Greene, Tucker Carlson and Laura Loomer, with Carlson and Loomer going as far as to drift the declare that Maduro’s ouster was actually about imposing homosexual marriage on Venezuela (that is spectacular, as a result of it manages to mix international coverage, tradition warfare panic and full nonsense right into a single sentence).
However this schism isn’t restricted to ex-Home members, podcasters and conspiracy theorists. Contained in the administration, the stability of energy seems to be tilting away from the noninterventionists and towards the hawks — at the least, for now.
The present beneficiary of this shift is Secretary of State Marco Rubio. As lately as final month, JD Vance, who has typically staked out an anti-interventionist posture, appeared like Trump’s apparent inheritor. Now, Rubio’s inventory is up (if “Lil Marco” falls quick, he can all the time accept Viceroy of Venezuela).
That’s to not say Rubio is anyplace close to being Trump’s clear successor. Venezuela might disappear from the headlines as rapidly because it arrived, buried beneath the subsequent disaster, scandal or social media outburst. Or it might go sideways and dominate headlines for years or many years.
Army adventurism has an uncanny behavior of doing precisely that.
If Venezuela turns right into a slow-motion catastrophe, Democrats will reap the advantages as will the GOP’s “America First” contingent.
However January hasn’t simply introduced a attainable touchstone for Republicans; Democrats have been hit with their very own problem, too: the Minnesota fraud scandal, which has already pushed Democratic Gov. Tim Walz out of a reelection bid. It’s the form of story that reinforces voters’ worst suspicions about their celebration.
In the course of the previous 5 years, elements of Minnesota’s Somali diaspora turned entangled in alleged fraudulent exercise, reportedly submitting thousands and thousands of {dollars} in claims for social providers that weren’t truly rendered.
The main points are sophisticated; the implications aren’t. Public packages retain help solely when voters imagine they’re competently managed, and this story suggests the alternative.
The truth that the scandal entails the Somali group makes it much more flamable. Truthful or not, it gives ready-made ammunition for these wanting to stoke racial resentment, discredit refugee insurance policies and switch bureaucratic failure into an indictment on Democrats.
The fallout extends effectively past Minnesota. Kamala Harris has been signaling curiosity in one other presidential run, and Walz was her vice-presidential decide in what was already a truncated and awkward marketing campaign. That call alone gained’t sink a future bid for her, nevertheless it actually doesn’t strengthen her already doubtful case that she has distinctive political judgment.
Extra troubling for Democrats is the concern that Minnesota is the tip of the iceberg. Walz’s exodus was sparked by a right-wing YouTuber who began doing a little sleuthing — and introduced consideration to years-old investigations by the Walz and Biden administrations. Different influencers are already promising comparable exposés elsewhere.
Proper-wing podcaster Benny Johnson, for instance, has introduced plans to descend on California, declaring it “the fraud capital of the world.” Newsom returned hearth with a vicious Trump-like retort, demonstrating as soon as once more why he turned the Democratic frontrunner in 2025.
Newsom’s Twitter rejoinder apart, it’s not loopy to suppose that the Democrats’ latest momentum may very well be squandered if it seems extra of those scandals exist and have been ignored, downplayed or (worse) coated up.
It’s dangerous to explain something in fashionable politics as a turning level, as a result of every week reliably produces one thing that eclipses the final outrage. Nonetheless, the opening days of this new yr already really feel consequential. Seeds have been planted. Whether or not they mature is the query.
Buckle up. It’s solely January.
Matt Ok. Lewis is the creator of “Filthy Wealthy Politicians” and “Too Dumb to Fail.”
