It’s onerous to be optimistic about the way forward for Gaza. The cease-fire settlement brokered by the Trump administration is holding, however Israel continues to occupy greater than half of the territory, and its forces have killed greater than 350 Palestinians for the reason that truce was reached on Oct. 10. Hamas, in the meantime, is resurging in Gaza—changing key commanders killed within the two-year conflict with Israel; executing its Palestinian opponents; and hiding weapons and fighters in its tunnel system, greater than half of which stays intact.
So, the place does that go away Palestinians and Israelis? And what does it imply for the remainder of the Center East? Armed conflicts within the area have often given solution to diplomatic breakthroughs. The 1973 Yom Kippur Warfare finally led to the 1979 peace accord between Israel and Egypt. The primary Palestinian rebellion precipitated the Oslo Accords within the Nineties. However extra typically, conflict within the Center East is adopted by durations of instability, chaos, and extra violence—all of which convulsed Iraq years after the U.S. conflict wound down.
It’s onerous to be optimistic about the way forward for Gaza. The cease-fire settlement brokered by the Trump administration is holding, however Israel continues to occupy greater than half of the territory, and its forces have killed greater than 350 Palestinians for the reason that truce was reached on Oct. 10. Hamas, in the meantime, is resurging in Gaza—changing key commanders killed within the two-year conflict with Israel; executing its Palestinian opponents; and hiding weapons and fighters in its tunnel system, greater than half of which stays intact.
So, the place does that go away Palestinians and Israelis? And what does it imply for the remainder of the Center East? Armed conflicts within the area have often given solution to diplomatic breakthroughs. The 1973 Yom Kippur Warfare finally led to the 1979 peace accord between Israel and Egypt. The primary Palestinian rebellion precipitated the Oslo Accords within the Nineties. However extra typically, conflict within the Center East is adopted by durations of instability, chaos, and extra violence—all of which convulsed Iraq years after the U.S. conflict wound down.
Right here’s what a hopeful situation would possibly appear to be. Israelis come to appreciate their enemies are weaker than ever after two years of conflict and their mates, dwindling in quantity however starting with the US, are much less inclined to assist their excesses. If Israeli elections late subsequent yr produce a reasonable authorities, this might end in a extra pragmatic method to the Palestinians. On the Palestinian facet, Hamas would conform to disarm and disband, paving the way in which for a Gulf-funded reconstruction of Gaza and a full Israeli withdrawal.
However an astute watcher of the battle sees the issues in that storyline. Israel has been rejecting compromises with the Palestinians since properly earlier than the conflict. The Oct. 7, 2023, Hamas assaults shifted the nation’s political consensus additional to the proper. Even when Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is beatable—an enormous if, for now—his successor is more likely to be no much less hawkish. And Hamas appears to be heading within the different path: reasserting authority in Gaza, not forfeiting it.
Overseas Coverage’s protection of the conflict in Gaza this final yr has included trenchant evaluation and searing criticism. For this roundup, we selected to spotlight 5 items revealed within the final 10 weeks of the yr—for the reason that cease-fire took maintain—that attempt to seize what comes subsequent.
1. The Peace in Gaza Received’t Final
By Stephen M. Walt, Oct. 15
Writing days after the cease-fire was introduced, FP columnist Stephen M. Walt describes why the settlement is flawed and the way its shortcomings will doom the peace course of. Walt factors out that the truce was negotiated with out Palestinian enter and its success is completely depending on the US imposing sustained stress on Israel.
Washington’s observe file on that entrance is hardly stellar. “Unconditional assist has been dangerous for the US and a catastrophe for Israel,” Walt writes. “A coverage of ‘benevolent normality’ can be higher for America and higher for Israel in the long term.”
2. Three Reckonings the Gaza Deal Will Power
By Michael J. Koplow, Oct. 13
This piece focuses on how an finish to the conflict would have an effect on Israeli society and politics. Michael J. Koplow argues {that a} reckoning is approaching a number of fronts and that Israelis should resolve whether or not to compromise with the Palestinians or slide additional into worldwide isolation. “Israelis should develop new methods to elucidate their nation to People, new arguments for why Israel is a crucial and worthy ally, and new methods for working in a world the place U.S. assist is just not essentially as fulsome or automated,” he writes.
3. The Determined Seek for Gaza Peacekeepers
By Anchal Vohra, Nov. 6
Spanish troopers with the United Nations Interim Power in Lebanon (UNIFIL) stand guard on the entrance of their base close to the southern Lebanese village of Taibeh on Sep. 18, 2006.Thomas Coex / AFP
To get past the conflict and obtain some stability, Gaza wants a global peacekeeping drive. However which international locations would contribute to it? Arab governments worry being branded as collaborators with Israel. Different international locations are ready to see if Hamas agrees to disarm. Israel has its personal circumstances.
FP columnist Anchal Vohra explains {that a} main impediment to such a drive is the presence of Hamas itself—which shapes any potential mission. “Specialists stated the important thing query that must be answered is whether or not the [international stabilization force] will probably be a peacekeeping drive or a multinational policing drive that’s anticipated to shoot at Hamas fighters when wanted,” she writes.
4. How the U.S. Failure in Iraq Haunts Trump’s Gaza Plan
By Marc Lynch, Oct. 16
After invading Iraq in 2003, the US put in American directors whose early steps—disbanding the Iraqi military and ridding the civil sector of Baathists—made the nation ungovernable. Marc Lynch, who has written extensively concerning the Iraq Warfare, sees a parallel in Gaza. “Even on the trail laid out by the cease-fire settlement, Gaza is extra more likely to be the location of ongoing low-level violence, financial disaster, failed governance, and spiraling insurgency than the promised fashionable and glossy new world metropolis,” he writes.
5. Can Palestinians Belief Donald Trump?
By Omar H. Rahman, Oct. 10
In brokering an finish to the conflict in Gaza, U.S. President Donald Trump managed to do one thing that his predecessor within the White Home did not: get Israel to cease its devastating air and floor marketing campaign. However Palestinians have good purpose to doubt a truce assured by Trump, Omar H.
Rahman argues. “Underlying all of this,” he writes, “is a straightforward notion that makes even the phased negotiation and implementation construction irrelevant: Each concession made by Hamas is irreversible, whereas each concession made by Israel will be undone.”
6. Podcast Bonus: What Would It Take to Rebuild Gaza?
By Cameron Abadi and Adam Tooze, Oct. 3
This episode of FP’s Ones and Tooze podcast delves into the somber arithmetic of the conflict: the scope of the destruction and what it might take to rebuild the Gaza Strip, politically and economically.
