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TPG’s consultants predict bank card tendencies for 2026
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TPG’s consultants predict bank card tendencies for 2026

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Last updated: December 28, 2025 7:13 pm
Scoopico
Published: December 28, 2025
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Contents
Refreshes of mid-tier bank cardsPersevering with devaluations of loyalty program switch chargesElevated emphasis on issuer journey portalsExtra dynamically priced awards, much less time to snag themCard launches galoreExtra welcome bonus restrictionsFurther restrictions on lounge entryAI infiltrates bank cardsBackside line

With the solar setting on 2025, we have been musing on what new and thrilling modifications for bank cards, factors and miles might arrive in 2026. The previous 12 months featured sufficient product launches, card refreshes and program modifications to make our heads spin, so we’re desperate to see if that momentum continues into the brand new 12 months.

I reached out to a few of my fellow bank card consultants right here at TPG to see what they give thought to the methods our trade may change in 2026. Listed here are our ideas.

Refreshes of mid-tier bank cards

2025 ushered in refreshes of three of the most well-liked premium bank cards in the marketplace: the Chase Sapphire Reserve® (see charges and charges), the American Specific Platinum Card® and The Enterprise Platinum Card® from American Specific.

With these out of the best way, each TPG bank cards author Augusta Stone and I consider we’ll see issuers concentrate on their mid-tier merchandise subsequent.

XAVIER LORENZO/GETTY IMAGES

I anticipate Chase to show its consideration to the beloved Chase Sapphire Most popular® Card (see charges and charges). We’ll doubtless see an annual payment improve as much as round $150, and no less than one or two new assertion credit to account for that.

This may be in keeping with what we have seen Chase do earlier than, resembling when it refreshed the United℠ Explorer Card (see charges and charges) and elevated its payment from $95 to $150 (after the primary cardholder 12 months).

In Augusta’s opinion, the American Specific® Inexperienced Card positively “wants a refresh.” She famous that the Amex Platinum and American Specific® Gold Card each acquired refreshes prior to now couple of years, so it is sensible for it to be the Amex Inexperienced’s flip. The Amex Inexperienced’s lack of its LoungeBuddy profit with no substitute makes Augusta suppose Amex could also be prepared to offer it a brand new coat of paint.

The knowledge for the American Specific Inexperienced Card has been collected independently by The Factors Man. The cardboard particulars on this web page haven’t been reviewed or supplied by the cardboard issuer.

Persevering with devaluations of loyalty program switch charges

Worsening switch ratios are a comparatively new pattern this 12 months, albeit an unlucky one. Amex and Citi each devalued their Emirates Skywards switch ratios. Plus, Amex introduced a coming discount of its Cathay Pacific Asia Miles switch ratio.

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Lead author Katie Genter and senior author Ben Smithson — two of TPG’s prime factors and miles consultants — consider this pattern will proceed into 2026. Ben labeled it “worrying” and mentioned he fears it is going to turn out to be extra widespread.

Katie agreed, however whereas she suspects some packages will proceed to alter switch ratios to be lower than 1:1, she additionally believes that Chase will keep a 1:1 ratio for all of its packages, as it is a level of satisfaction for the issuer.

woman at computer
FRESHSPLASH/GETTY IMAGES

The event of switch ratio devaluations underscores some extent we regularly make right here at TPG: Do not hoard your factors and miles. You by no means know once they’ll turn out to be much less worthwhile, so redeem them for journey now.

Elevated emphasis on issuer journey portals

We have seen issuers present a extra vested curiosity of their journey portals this 12 months — notably Chase. Alongside its refresh of the Sapphire Reserve, Chase launched Factors Increase to encourage eligible cardholders to make extra bookings by means of its platform, Chase Journey℠.

SOMYOT TECHAPUWAPAT/GETTY IMAGES

Augusta and Ben each consider that we’ll see this flip into a correct pattern in 2026. Ben mentioned that with card issuers’ journey portals turning into extra advanced, he expects to see extra incentives, like excessive redemption values to e book throughout the card issuer’s ecosystem reasonably than switch externally.

He warned, nevertheless, that cardholders ought to keep in mind that it may be costlier to e book by means of a journey portal.

Augusta believes that Factors Increase will ignite a brand new issuer initiative to launch competing advantages. She highlighted Amex, Capital One and Citi because the doubtless contenders to launch a perk that competes with Factors Increase. I count on Amex to be the primary to bat with this, because it’s Chase’s closest competitor.

Extra dynamically priced awards, much less time to snag them

Most airline loyalty packages use dynamic pricing at this level, however we largely have not seen them use it for tickets that are not on their very own metallic.

Ben believes we’ll see this happen on a bigger scale in 2026. He famous Air Canada Aeroplan’s use of dynamic pricing for United and Emirates awards as instance. He views this as a doubtlessly adverse improvement, warning that we might see long-haul top quality Emirates flights as excessive as 400,000 factors for a single flight, for instance.

Woman with bills
NATALIA GDOVSKAIA/GETTY IMAGES

Alongside the looming menace of astronomically priced awards, Katie thinks we’ll have much less time to snag the redemptions we would like. She’s seen a pattern of award availability disappearing quickly, even when she acts instantly upon receiving an availability alert. With increasingly more individuals investing in factors and miles, Katie mentioned it’s going to solely turn out to be tougher to search out good worth redemptions.

Nonetheless, although, she encourages everybody to remain on the hunt for good offers.

Card launches galore

Whereas 2025 did see the launch of a handful of latest bank cards, the information cycle felt largely dominated by outstanding card refreshes. 2026 might very properly display the alternative, with high-visibility product launches.

I am anticipating Chase’s extremely anticipated premium World of Hyatt card to reach in 2026. As somebody who predominantly stays with Hyatt, I will be paying shut consideration to any motion right here.

THOMAS BARWICK/GETTY IMAGES

Bilt has already confirmed main modifications to its bank card lineup because it shifts to a partnership with Cardless. Given Bilt plans to launch three brand-new playing cards as a part of its Cardless debut, it is very doubtless its new suite of card merchandise will turn out to be one of many greatest speaking factors of 2026.

The knowledge for the Bilt Mastercard has been collected independently by The Factors Man. The cardboard particulars on this web page haven’t been reviewed or supplied by the cardboard issuer.

Augusta additionally thinks we might lastly see Chase launch a correct competitor to the Amex Gold. That is one thing I have been asking for so long as I can bear in mind, for the reason that Amex Gold at the moment lacks a real competitor from any of the foremost issuers.

Associated: Why Chase wants a competitor to the Amex Gold

Extra welcome bonus restrictions

We noticed Chase undertake an initiative this 12 months to limit the flexibility of present and former cardholders to earn recent welcome bonuses on shopper Sapphire and sure Ink merchandise. Capital One additionally made it tougher for sure individuals to earn bonuses on its Enterprise merchandise.

Katie believes we’ll see this unlucky pattern proceed, with issuers prioritizing household guidelines and customized affords. For instance, I consider we might see Chase broaden its current restrictions on Sapphire and Ink welcome bonuses to their cobranded playing cards.

We might also see different issuers undertake American Specific’s technique of providing a spread of welcome affords for particular person playing cards, versus a hard and fast supply.

Friends shopping at home
PEKIC/GETTY IMAGES

Further restrictions on lounge entry

Lounge entry is likely one of the most beloved advantages on bank cards. In current occasions, we have seen issuers place restrictions on entry, resembling Capital One’s upcoming rule modifications for its Capital One lounges. Whereas irritating for cardholders, these modifications are a response to rising complaints about wait occasions and overcrowding.

Outside of JFK Capital One lounge
ZACH GRIFF/THE POINTS GUY

Katie thinks that we’ll proceed to see lounge house owners place restrictions on entry. She famous that whereas lounge entry is a favourite profit, after you have it, you might run into lengthy strains or crowded lounges, which isn’t a premium expertise. For that purpose, she sees lounge house owners prioritizing methods to restrict entry and scale back crowding.

AI infiltrates bank cards

Affiliate bank cards author Stephanie Stevens has been musing quite a bit on AI. She believes that bank card issuers will begin utilizing AI to help them with creating focused, dynamic welcome affords for potential cardholders. She additionally thinks AI shall be used to handle lounge waitlists and overcrowding.

Young African man upset about phantom award space
DELMAINE DONSON/GETTY IMAGES

After all, introducing AI into something raises safety and privateness considerations, particularly when it’s granted entry to delicate monetary knowledge. It stays to be seen the place and the way issuers will embrace these instruments.

Backside line

2026 is bound to be an thrilling 12 months. We count on loads of attention-grabbing developments — some constructive, some adverse. No matter what occurs, one factor stays the identical: Factors and miles are one of the best ways to unlock superb journey experiences.

We’ll nonetheless be right here that can assist you do this, it doesn’t matter what subsequent 12 months brings.

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