Welcome to Overseas Coverage’s South Asia Temporary.
It has been a tough yr for South Asia, which has suffered surging terrorism, financial stress, diplomatic tensions, pure disasters, and the deleterious impacts of ongoing conflicts in Ukraine and the Center East. Predictably, the largest tales from South Asia in 2025—some stunning, some much less so—are largely downers. However in just a few instances, 2026 might be a yr of serious change.
Welcome to Overseas Coverage’s South Asia Temporary.
It has been a tough yr for South Asia, which has suffered surging terrorism, financial stress, diplomatic tensions, pure disasters, and the deleterious impacts of ongoing conflicts in Ukraine and the Center East. Predictably, the largest tales from South Asia in 2025—some stunning, some much less so—are largely downers. However in just a few instances, 2026 might be a yr of serious change.
Under are 5 tales that outlined the area this yr.
India-Pakistan Battle
The yr started with India-Pakistan ties comparatively steady, thanks largely to a border truce in impact since February 2021. However in April, militants killed 26 vacationers in Indian-administered Kashmir. India—with out offering proof—mentioned that Pakistan was complicit, and two weeks later, it carried out airstrikes throughout the border.
For 4 days, India and Pakistan despatched drones and missiles deep into one another’s territory, ensuing of their most critical battle since 1971. The army campaigns had been accompanied by vital disinformation.
A Might 10 cease-fire ended hostilities, however not the intense diplomatic freeze. Because the yr attracts to a detailed, the India-Pakistan relationship stays in deep disaster. Borders are largely closed, and commerce is halted. India has suspended the Indus Waters Treaty, lengthy considered as a uncommon success story for bilateral cooperation. Even cricket turned a pressure level.
Dialogue is virtually nonexistent. Uncommon terrorist assaults in Islamabad and New Delhi on consecutive days in November amplified the dangers of additional violence. The battle was an unsettling reminder to the world of the peril of nuclear escalation in South Asia. Its aftermath underscored how tortured India-Pakistan relations stay, even after years of uneasy calm.
Rebellion in Nepal
Barely a yr after Bangladeshi protesters surprised the world by forcing their prime minister out with mass demonstrations, their neighbors in Nepal repeated the feat. In September, crowds led largely by younger folks took to the streets throughout the nation to denounce their authorities. Inside just a few days, Nepali Prime Minister Ok.P. Sharma Oli stepped down, giving approach to an interim authorities charged with making ready for nationwide elections in March.
The protests started after the announcement of latest restrictions on social media platforms, largely seen as facilitating censorship, however the points that demonstrators had been most indignant about had been corruption, nepotism, financial stress, and the notion that the political class was extra involved about their very own points than mounting public grievances.
What occurred in Nepal wasn’t stunning. Youth discontent about politics had been obvious for years. That discontent might flare anew subsequent yr: The protesters need an finish to rule by the same old political suspects, and a number of other new events—together with these concerned within the protests—have registered for the March elections. However there may be nonetheless a superb probability that the following authorities shall be led by the previous institution.
U.S.-India Ties Deteriorate
For just a few many years, Washington’s relationship with New Delhi was considered one of its fastest-growing and most steady, together with throughout U.S. President Donald Trump’s first time period. The partnership additionally obtained off to a superb begin throughout the early days of Trump’s second time period, with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi invited to a White Home summit in February.
Then issues went south in a rush. Trump’s 50 p.c tariffs on India (which is tied with Brazil for the best U.S. tariff charge of any nation), heavy U.S. stress on New Delhi to cease shopping for Russian oil, and a stunning resurgence in U.S.-Pakistan ties sunk the bilateral relationship to its worst stage in many years.
That mentioned, the connection didn’t collapse. There was nonetheless cooperation in protection, together with joint army workout routines and a brand new 10-year protection framework settlement; area, the place the 2 nations launched a satellite tv for pc; and regulation enforcement, the place the FBI apprehended just a few figures wished in India.
However america and India will enter 2026 on dangerous footing and in want of a confidence-building measure, similar to a brand new commerce deal or a Trump journey to India, to get it again on monitor.
One other Afghan Refugee Disaster
A household sits on a truck as they await deportation to Afghanistan close to the Pakistan-Afghanistan border in Chaman, Pakistan, on Nov. 7.Abdul Basit/AFP by way of Getty Photographs
One of the vital missed developments within the area this yr was a well-recognized story: the huge variety of refugees uprooted from their communities and despatched to Afghanistan, the place lots of them had by no means been. Lately, Pakistan and Iran—the 2 most frequent locations for Afghan refugees—have taken a tougher line towards the group that they’ve lengthy hosted on such a big scale.
However this yr, the numbers had been particularly placing. As of this week, in line with United Nations information, practically 2.8 million folks had returned to Afghanistan from Iran and Pakistan in 2025, together with greater than 1.3 million deportees. The most important motion got here in July, when greater than 600,000 Afghan refugees returned, the overwhelming majority pushed out of Iran over simply 15 days.
In each Iran and Pakistan, Afghan refugees had been usually victims of geopolitics. Deepening tensions between Islamabad and Kabul over cross-border terrorism made susceptible Afghan communities an simpler goal. And in Iran, amid a quick battle with Israel, some Afghans had been falsely accused of being Israeli spies.
The Unprecedented Energy of Asim Munir
It’s well-known that the army is Pakistan’s strongest establishment, and the Pakistani Military chief has historically been its strongest determine. However this yr, the facility of military chief Asim Munir elevated to unprecedented ranges. Quickly after the Might battle with India, Munir was promoted to the rank of discipline marshal—an honor bestowed on just one different Pakistani, former army dictator Ayub Khan.
In November, a constitutional modification was handed establishing a brand new publish, the chief of protection forces, held concurrently by the Military chief. The modification additionally launched adjustments that grant five-star generals similar to Munir lifetime immunity from prosecution and prolonged his tenure as military chief via 2030—staggering privileges for an unelected official.
Munir’s story is a wider commentary on Pakistan’s democratic trajectory, which has grown more and more dim amid the army’s legally sanctioned consolidation of energy—one thing that the nation’s civilian management and parliament have purchased into with little resistance.
