U.S. congressional district maps are displayed because the Senate Particular Committee on Congressional Redistricting meets on the Texas State Capitol on Aug. 6, in Austin, Texas. Republicans are hoping the newly redrawn maps will increase their probabilities of preserving management of Congress in subsequent yr’s midterm elections.
Brandon Bell/Getty Photographs
conceal caption
toggle caption
Brandon Bell/Getty Photographs
SEGUIN, Texas – Underneath a broiling solar, there is a in style, frozen drinks cease right here within the seat of Guadalupe County referred to as Milly’s the place locals cool off in the summertime.
However enterprise proprietor Tomas Hernandez Jr. says the political surroundings is hotter than ever. A lot of that has to do with a struggling financial system, he says.
“Lots of people who supported Trump weren’t anticipating this to occur,” mentioned Hernandez, 64.
Grocery costs are excessive, suppliers are charging extra and laborers are leaving because the Trump administration intensifies its deportation push.
Now, state Republicans are transferring Hernandez’s south central Texas group into a brand new congressional district as a part of a controversial mid-decade redistricting effort designed to develop the dimensions of their delegation within the U.S. Home. It is a transfer that grew to become official on Friday, when Gov. Greg Abbott signed the brand new map into legislation.
On the heart of the GOP redistricting plan is a high-stakes wager that the brand new map will increase the social gathering’s probabilities of preserving management of Congress in subsequent yr’s midterm elections. The trouble has triggered a redistricting arms race of kinds, as Democrats in California have moved to redraw their maps, with different states anticipated to comply with.
In Texas, the place Republicans made massive inroads with Hispanic voters in final yr’s election, the social gathering is hoping these good points may be locked in for good. The brand new Texas map provides 5 districts which might be anticipated to be protected Republican seats.
4 of these seats are Hispanic-majority, testing the GOP’s good points with the state’s largest demographic group.
A Democrat, Hernandez questions whether or not Latinos who voted Republican final yr, together with his personal kinfolk, will keep loyal to Trump.
“Hispanics, whether or not they’re my circle of relatives, or non-family members that supported Trump, they noticed it nearly as good for the financial system, however I do not see any advantages,” he mentioned.
Get together leaders are extra assured. Longtime Texas Republican Senator John Cornyn likes to brag on his social gathering’s good points with Latino voters.
“President Trump gained a considerable improve within the vote of the Hispanic inhabitants,” Cornyn mentioned throughout an official occasion at an Abilene, Texas, technical college this week, roughly 300 miles from Seguin.
In final yr’s election, Trump got here inside hanging distance of successful a majority of Hispanic voters nationwide, taking 48% of the vote to Kamala Harris’ 51%. For Trump, it was a pointy uptick from the 36% share he gained in 2020.
In final yr’s election, Trump got here inside hanging distance of successful a majority of Hispanic voters nationwide, taking 48% of the vote. Above, Trump speaks at a marketing campaign rally at Trendsetter Engineering Inc. in Houston on Nov. 2, 2023.
Brandon Bell/Getty Photographs
conceal caption
toggle caption
Brandon Bell/Getty Photographs
“As Democrats on the nationwide degree turn into increasingly more radical, and increasingly more excessive, I feel extra Hispanics wish to Republican candidates to vote,” Cornyn mentioned.
However Texas Democratic congressman Greg Casar disagrees. Throughout his marketing campaign launch this week from a downtown Austin constructing, he mentioned Republicans will lose Latino voters.
Casar is working to symbolize a shrinking blue dot in Austin beneath the brand new Texas map in a redrawn thirty seventh congressional district. His previous thirty fifth congressional district will shift south to a four-county space that features Seguin. It will likely be 60% Latino.
“I’ve already heard from south Texas Democratic elected officers, who wish to run in that south Texas District, and I look ahead to supporting them,” he mentioned.
Rep. Greg Casar, D-Texas, protests the redistricting plan exterior of the Texas governor’s mansion on Aug. 4 in Austin. Casar is working to symbolize a shrinking blue dot beneath the brand new Texas map in a redrawn thirty seventh congressional district. His previous district, the thirty fifth, will shift to an space that’s 60% Latino.
Brandon Bell/Getty Photographs
conceal caption
toggle caption
Brandon Bell/Getty Photographs
College of Houston politics professor Brandon Rottinghaus says historical past might not be on Democrats’ aspect, noting the social gathering successfully misplaced management of the state within the Nineteen Nineties.
“The trouble right here appears to be to make Democrats be solely an city social gathering,” Rottinghaus mentioned. “The districts that Republicans are drawing to attempt to maximize their good points embody suburban areas, exurban areas and rural areas,” he mentioned.
However there isn’t any assure the Republican gerrymander will play out that manner, at the very least within the close to time period.
Polls present Latinos who voted for the GOP are turning towards Trump over the financial system and deportations. Roughly a 3rd of Latinos who supported Trump final yr “are usually not set on voting for a Republican” throughout subsequent yr’s midterms, in accordance with Equis Analysis, a Latino polling group.
That might make the brand new maps riskier for Republicans than they assume.
“That is what some folks name a dummymander,” Rottinghaus mentioned. You “inadvertently draw a map that finally ends up hurting.”
The shifting panorama poses a crucial check for Republicans. The brand new GOP map may solidify the social gathering’s grip on Texas for years to return, particularly if Democrats wrestle to win again Latino voters who have been as soon as solidly of their camp.
Again in Seguin, Hernandez says Democrats have taken Texas Latino voters as a right. Now, he argues, Republicans have given them a brand new opening, and his social gathering must ramp up their recreation.
“If Republicans weren’t nervous, they would not be doing all this redistricting,” he mentioned. “I feel Democrats must get up and be energetic and vote.”
