For years, politicians, diplomats, analysts, and journalists engaged on the Center East apprehensive {that a} conflict between Iran and Israel may rapidly spill over into the Arab world. If Israel attacked Iran’s nuclear program, many assumed, Iran would retaliate in opposition to U.S. pursuits in neighboring Arab states. Fears centered on Iraq and Syria moderately than the Gulf. On condition that Iran had stabilized relations with the Gulf over the previous few years, the pondering went, it will keep away from actions that might upset its new ties.
On June 23, these theories had been put to the check. After america launched missile assaults on Iranian nuclear websites, Tehran retaliated by putting U.S. bases in Qatar. It was an unprecedented act. Iranian proxies had focused the Gulf beforehand, most prominently with the Houthi assaults on Saudi Aramco amenities in 2019 and on infrastructure in Abu Dhabi in 2022. In these instances, Tehran was in a position to preserve believable deniability. However the Qatar assault was totally different. Iran launched missiles straight at Qatar, putting the regional headquarters of U.S. Central Command and the Al Udeid Air Base. Tehran could have knowledgeable Doha of its plans forward of time and developments had been largely managed. However the reality stays that strikes on the tranquil Qatari state crossed a line.
For years, politicians, diplomats, analysts, and journalists engaged on the Center East apprehensive {that a} conflict between Iran and Israel may rapidly spill over into the Arab world. If Israel attacked Iran’s nuclear program, many assumed, Iran would retaliate in opposition to U.S. pursuits in neighboring Arab states. Fears centered on Iraq and Syria moderately than the Gulf. On condition that Iran had stabilized relations with the Gulf over the previous few years, the pondering went, it will keep away from actions that might upset its new ties.
On June 23, these theories had been put to the check. After america launched missile assaults on Iranian nuclear websites, Tehran retaliated by putting U.S. bases in Qatar. It was an unprecedented act. Iranian proxies had focused the Gulf beforehand, most prominently with the Houthi assaults on Saudi Aramco amenities in 2019 and on infrastructure in Abu Dhabi in 2022. In these instances, Tehran was in a position to preserve believable deniability. However the Qatar assault was totally different. Iran launched missiles straight at Qatar, putting the regional headquarters of U.S. Central Command and the Al Udeid Air Base. Tehran could have knowledgeable Doha of its plans forward of time and developments had been largely managed. However the reality stays that strikes on the tranquil Qatari state crossed a line.
It’s considerably ironic that Iran selected to strike Qatar. Throughout his go to to the Gulf final Could, U.S. President Donald Trump heard from leaders in Riyadh, Doha, and Abu Dhabi that peace was wanted for prosperity within the area. However Trump particularly praised Qatar for its accommodating perspective towards Tehran. “Iran ought to significantly thank the emir of Qatar, as a result of there are others who need to deal a tough blow to Iran, not like Qatar,” Trump mentioned. “Iran may be very fortunate to have the emir as a result of he’s really combating for them. He doesn’t need us to do a vicious blow to Iran.”
Certainly, the aftermath of Iran’s assault demonstrates simply how accommodating Qatar could be. The identical day because the strikes, Majed al-Ansari, advisor to the Qatar’s prime minister and spokesperson for the Ministry of International Affairs, mentioned that Qatar “reserves the precise to reply straight in a fashion equal with the character and scale of this brazen aggression, in keeping with worldwide legislation.” Regardless of that assertion, nonetheless, Qatar appeared keen to maneuver previous the incident. Qatari Emir Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani acquired a name the next day from Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian, who “expressed remorse” over the strikes, in keeping with an announcement launched by Qatar’s information company. Comparable calls had been made to different Gulf leaders.
The extent of coordination between Gulf states was evident within the rapid aftermath of the Iranian strikes, as demonstrated by the statements that had been issued in fast succession. They condemned the assault, expressed solidarity with Doha, and endorsed its proper to reply ought to it select to take action. Nonetheless, not one of the statements had been escalatory in tone or nature.
This outcome ought to be thought-about a big diplomatic success, reflecting regional dedication to avoiding a drawn-out army confrontation. Iran’s strikes didn’t trigger tangible injury to Qatar due to each superior coordination and powerful air defenses, and the Iranians had been fast to name Gulf leaders to precise remorse. Consequently, bilateral relations endured.
With missiles flying, the leaders of Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates selected to prioritize reconciliation and calm. Put in a different way, because of this the fastidiously cultivated ties between Iran and the Gulf bore fruit.
Tehran shouldn’t take this without any consideration. Simply because conflict has been prevented, Gulf states won’t overlook what occurred. Iranian diplomats and officers have to work on rebuilding bilateral confidence within the coming months and years.
5 days after the strikes, Anwar Gargash, a diplomatic advisor to the UAE president, publicly mentioned what Gulf officers had been saying closed doorways: “As we flip the web page on conflict, Iran should rebuild confidence with its Gulf neighbors, after it was broken by this assault.”
With no concerted effort to indicate good religion, Tehran dangers the help that Gulf states have proven it to date. As Iran continues its negotiations with america, European Union, and United Nations, it wants its neighbors to proceed advocating for peace with their Western allies. Iranian officers have an open channel to the Gulf. If that channel is closed, then they won’t solely wrestle to enhance regional ties, however they can even lose an vital channel with america and Trump himself. For Tehran to threat that in a time of heightened suspicions can be notably reckless.
Tehran, for its half, seems to acknowledge the necessity to rebuild belief. Iranian officers have reached out to Gulf counterparts, with International Minister Abbas Araghchi visiting Saudi Arabia and assembly Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman. Moreover, proxies have largely toned down their rhetoric and threats in opposition to the Gulf.
Whereas the newest spherical of battle has fortunately handed with out main civilian casualties within the Gulf, the specter of conflict has not gone away. With a part of Iran’s nuclear program nonetheless intact and diplomatic talks with the E3 transferring at an extremely sluggish pace, the potential for renewed Israeli or U.S. strikes may be very actual. Subsequently, the onus is on Iran to show that it’s severe about negotiating. If negotiations fail, then it’s going to then fall on Iran to show that it doesn’t intend to widen the fallout from any ensuing conflict.
The lesson of the June 23 strikes is that, finally, leaders can select whether or not or to not escalate. Fortunately, Qatar and its Gulf allies selected de-escalation. Now, the area is watching to see whether or not Iran can construct upon this fragile momentum.
