Welcome to Overseas Coverage’s China Temporary.
The highlights this week: China reacts to the U.S. assault on Venezuela, Chinese language President Xi Jinping delivers a New 12 months’s Eve tackle, and China pronounces new export restrictions amid its standoff with Japan.
China Reacts to U.S. Strike on Venezuela
Final Friday, hours earlier than he was seized by U.S. forces, Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro met with Chinese language President Xi Jinping’s particular envoy to Latin America. Whereas Qiu Xiaoqi’s go to was commonplace, its proximity to the U.S. assault might put Xi on edge.
In keeping with Venezuela, the go to reaffirmed the “unbreakable nature of the brotherhood” between the 2 nations. In 2023, China upgraded its relationship with Venezuela to an “all-weather” partnership, a distinction usually reserved for allies corresponding to Pakistan.
Nonetheless heat China-Venezuela relations could also be, Beijing’s preliminary response to the U.S. assault was restricted and predictable. The Chinese language overseas ministry issued a quick assertion condemning the US for “hegemonic acts” that violated worldwide legislation and Venezuelan sovereignty.
Shifting ahead, it’s probably that China will make a variety of noise—significantly over the illegality of Maduro’s seize—however supply little sensible intervention on Venezuela’s behalf. Although the U.S. assault offers hard-liners in Beijing with justification for severing ties with Washington, such a break is uncertain.
Xi has invested appreciable effort in stabilizing China’s bilateral relationship with the US, together with the commerce cease-fire negotiated with U.S. President Donald Trump final 12 months—on phrases largely favorable to Beijing. Given China’s precarious financial place, it extra probably will proceed to hedge its bets slightly than inflame tensions.
Within the final 12 months, China has constantly condemned U.S. sanctions and seizures of Venezuelan tankers, at the same time as Beijing has step by step lowered direct help to Caracas, focusing as a substitute on securing compensation of present money owed.
This method may change if the Trump administration makes an attempt to forged Maduro as a scapegoat for the US’ fentanyl issues throughout his trial and wraps in China. Curiously, the U.S. indictment towards Maduro unsealed on Saturday makes no point out of fentanyl, focusing as a substitute on cocaine trafficking.
One other space to look at is oil. On Saturday, Trump tried to make an overture to Beijing by suggesting that underneath U.S. management, Venezuelan oil exports to China would develop. Nonetheless, this provide issues little to China: Although it purchases roughly 68 p.c of Venezuela’s oil exports, that may be a negligible share of total Chinese language oil imports.
What might show extra influential in shaping China’s involvement is its long-standing ideological dedication to anti-imperialism within the creating world, rooted in ties solid with socialist-leaning states in Latin America and Africa throughout Mao Zedong’s rule. Venezuela, nonetheless, solely entered China’s orbit after former President Hugo Chávez was elected in 1998.
However, the overtly imperial character of the newest U.S. navy operation may resonate with Xi’s era, which was raised on the narratives of anti-colonial wrestle and Third World solidarity. To make sure, China is commonly hypocritical, patronizing, and even racist towards its supposed socialist siblings. But the idea system persists, significantly amongst older Chinese language leaders.
Nonetheless, it’s unlikely that the U.S. assault on Venezuela will alter China’s technique on Taiwan. China’s management sees Taiwan as an inner subject and has no bother reconciling its help for Venezuelan sovereignty with its contempt for Taiwan’s.
The disaster in Venezuela might spur deeper Chinese language engagement throughout Latin America. One improvement to look at shall be Chinese language air-defense gross sales to nations corresponding to Cuba and Colombia, that are unsettled by Trump’s more and more expansive threats.
What We’re Following
New 12 months’s Eve tackle. China historically marks a brand new 12 months with the Spring Pageant, or Lunar New 12 months, which falls on Feb. 17 this 12 months. Although main coverage paperwork usually observe that occasion, Xi’s Western New 12 months’s Eve speech has taken on outsized significance.
The speeches themselves are at all times banal, regardless of in depth necessary protection by Chinese language state media. Xi usually lists his achievements of the final 12 months, typically highlighting the locations he’s visited. His feedback on Taiwan at all times garner consideration, however they don’t waver: He asserts that reunification is inevitable—the identical language Beijing has used for many years.
This 12 months’s speech adopted the identical sample as earlier ones, highlighting China’s know-how improvements and cultural soft-power successes in 2025, together with the Black Delusion: Wukong online game and the blockbuster film Ne Zha 2.
Japan tensions. The standoff between Tokyo and Beijing continues over Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s repeated remarks that Japan may support Taiwan within the occasion of a Chinese language invasion. Chinese language Overseas Minister Wang Yi is making an attempt to garner South Korean help by invoking Seoul’s historic grievances with Tokyo, however that is unlikely to achieve traction.
China has to date averted the type of street-level mobilization seen in previous confrontations, opting as a substitute for quieter measures corresponding to banning Japanese artists, discouraging tourism, and issuing diplomatic protests. On Tuesday, China introduced a ban on exports of sure dual-use items, together with some uncommon earths, to Japan.
In the meantime, a senior Japanese official appeared to name for an impartial nuclear arsenal final month, prompting Tokyo to reaffirm its no-nuclear-weapons pledge. As neither facet exhibits any signal of backing down, the rift seems prone to changing into one thing extra everlasting.
FP’s Most Learn This Week
Tech and Enterprise
Restaurant woes. Chinese language spending on eating out fell sharply in current months, reflecting yet one more signal of the nation’s financial malaise. Eating places have been closing at file charges for the reason that COVID-19 pandemic, and spending per meal has fallen by 24 p.c since 2023. Younger folks, financially strapped and infrequently unemployed, have particularly in the reduction of.
Consuming out in China is much cheaper and extra routine than within the West, with small, typically family-run eating places on almost each road. Among the sector’s contraction displays the rise of supply platforms, which exploit low-cost labor. Going through weak home demand, Chinese language restaurant chains try abroad enlargement in the hunt for progress.
Tax crackdown. China has been gathering extra taxes from on-line distributors since October, when a brand new legislation closed long-standing tax loopholes that helped gasoline China’s e-commerce increase. China’s tax system is commonly poorly coordinated between native and central authorities, and digital transactions have proved particularly troublesome to hint.
However it wasn’t simply legit taxes that many on-line sellers have been evading. Working on-line additionally made new companies more durable for officers to detect, limiting alternatives for routine extortion. In distinction, extra seen enterprises, corresponding to eating places, usually should bribe a number of companies—from well being inspectors to the fireplace division—simply to function.
By formalizing tax assortment, the central authorities has created a brand new dilemma: As soon as native officers know what companies are working of their jurisdictions, these companies turn out to be targets for extortion, increasing the potential scope of corruption.
