Welcome to Overseas Coverage’s Africa Temporary.
The highlights this week: Analysts elevate questions concerning the official White Home narrative behind current U.S. strikes on Nigeria, Benin holds elections after a failed coup try, and China’s international minister excursions the continent.
Nigeria, like Iran and Venezuela, has grow to be a goal of america’ more and more aggressive international coverage underneath President Donald Trump. The U.S. army launched airstrikes on northwestern Nigeria’s Sokoto state on Christmas Day, claiming that it was defending Christians from what Trump referred to as “ISIS Terrorist Scum.”
Final week, Trump advised the New York Instances that additional airstrikes in Nigeria had been on the desk. “I’d like to make it a one-time strike. But when they proceed to kill Christians, it will likely be a many-time strike,” Trump stated. Washington alleges that Nigerian Christians are going through systematic persecution and killings in comparison with different Nigerians, an assertion that’s not supported by information.
Professional analyses, media experiences, and eyewitness accounts contest the White Home’s official narrative surrounding the Dec. 25, 2025, strikes. At the same time as U.S. Africa Command launched a assertion that “a number of ISIS terrorists had been killed within the ISIS camps,” residents of Muslim-majority Sokoto stated numerous the missiles hit empty farms.
An aide to Nigerian President Bola Tinubu referred to as the U.S. claims “sketchy,” telling Sky Information that the U.S. assaults hit an rising jihadi group named Lakurawa, whose hyperlinks to the Islamic State are disputed by some analysts. Lakurawa fighters are at the moment incapable of finishing up large-scale assaults in comparison with Nigerian Islamic State and al Qaeda associates, specialists advised Overseas Coverage.
Analysts say that the strikes on Lakurawa made little sense, on condition that there are deadlier teams working in northeast Nigeria. They embrace the United Nations-sanctioned Ansaru, an al Qaeda affiliate that splintered from Boko Haram round 2012. Former Nigerian Senate majority chief Ali Ndume welcomed the strikes however referred to as for their extension to the “unique strongholds” of the Islamic State and Boko Haram within the nation’s northeast.
“Lakurawa are manner beneath by way of significance if you find yourself talking of terrorists in Nigeria. … It’s a bit of bit complicated as to why the [United States] did this,” stated Kabir Adamu, the CEO of Abuja-based Beacon Safety and Intelligence.
What’s extra, the U.S. strikes seem to have been ineffective. “There’s no proof that any member of Lakurawa had been killed within the airstrikes primarily based on discussions with group members and specialists,” stated Kingsley Madueke, the Nigeria analysis coordinator for the International Initiative Towards Transnational Organized Crime.
Madueke’s claims had been supported by Ladd Serwat, the senior analyst for Africa on the Armed Battle Location and Occasion Knowledge Mission (ACLED). “We’ve combed by means of the accessible experiences … and we additionally don’t have any verifiable casualties,” he stated.
Tomahawk missiles launched from U.S. vessels within the Gulf of Guinea focused Lakurawa’s camps within the Tangaza forest, situated on the border with Niger. Unexploded missiles fell onto buildings and farms within the city of Jabo and 280 miles away within the southwestern city of Offa, two areas with out terrorist actions, in accordance with Adamu.
Residents in Tangaza reported seeing just a few Lakurawa fighters fleeing the realm on motorbikes after observing U.S. surveillance flights hours earlier than the strikes. Satellite tv for pc imagery in addition to worldwide and Nigerian media experiences confirmed that some explosives landed in empty fields.
Lakurawa emerged round 2010, when some Muslim communities invited them to assist shield in opposition to different prison gangs and cattle rustlers. The group later turned on the native communities that it was employed to guard, taking hostages and imposing taxes and radical Islamist guidelines on villagers. Lakurawa’s numbers are unknown, however analysts together with Madueke estimate that it contains round 200 fighters. Its members come from bordering Mali and Niger in addition to Nigeria.
Within the wake of the assault, safety analysts monitoring armed teams in Nigeria are involved that extremists may exploit Trump’s belligerent rhetoric for recruitment propaganda.
“The framing of the U.S. airstrikes as a transfer to guard Christians is counterproductive,” stated Madueke, including that Sokoto’s inhabitants is predominantly Muslim. “There’s lots of suspicion in northern Nigeria in opposition to Western nations, and any operation has to actually take that into consideration,” he stated.
Proper-wing U.S. politicians have cited figures claiming that greater than 100,000 Christians have been killed in Nigeria since 2009. However ACLED information disputes these numbers. Based on the group, a bit of greater than 54,000 civilians of all religions have been killed by armed teams within the nation since 2009.
“ACLED data between 50 and 90 incidents per yr involving violence concentrating on Christians in Nigeria, leading to simply over 500 fatalities over the previous 5 years,” Serwat stated. “Knowledge additionally present comparable annual ranges of Muslims killed in assaults the place non secular affiliation performed a job.”
Some observers have recommended that Trump’s strikes had been extra about securing U.S. entry to Nigerian minerals by power than a severe try and get rid of Islamists. Nigeria has “minerals that China is benefiting from. And clearly, the Trump administration will not be pleased about that,” Adamu stated.
Trump was open about his intentions to safe Venezuelan oil when he kidnapped that nation’s president earlier this month.
In 2023, when Nigeria constructed its first lithium processing plant within the northwestern state of Kaduna, it opted for a bid from Beijing-based Ming Xin Mineral Separation fairly than Elon Musk’s Tesla. “Nigeria needed funding by way of a bodily presence on the bottom, and what the Elon Musk technique was providing was extractive—simply take [it] and go away,” Adamu stated.
Thursday, Jan. 15: Uganda holds basic elections
Friday, Jan. 16: The board of the Worldwide Financial Fund (IMF) meets to evaluation Ethiopia’s $3.4 billion mortgage program.
Sunday, Jan. 18: The ultimate match of the Africa Cup of Nations males’s soccer match is held in Rabat, Morocco.
Monday, Jan. 19: The U.N. Safety Council receives a briefing on Sudan from the Worldwide Felony Court docket.
BRICS naval workout routines. BRICS naval workout routines started on Monday in South Africa. However they had been rapidly difficult by Trump’s threats of extra tariffs in opposition to nations “doing enterprise” with Iran amid anti-government protests within the nation.
The drills had been on account of happen till Jan. 16, with China, Russia, and Iran taking part alongside South African forces. At South Africa’s request, Iran reportedly agreed to be an observer as a substitute to gird in opposition to doable U.S. motion. Brazil, Egypt, and Ethiopia are additionally observing the workout routines, Reuters reported.
Initially composed of Brazil, Russia, India, and China, BRICS expanded to incorporate South Africa in 2010 and extra not too long ago added a number of new members, together with Iran. Trump has referred to as BRICS “anti-American.”
India, which is making an attempt to steadiness its relations with america, opted out of the drills. Even because it requested Tehran to withdraw, South Africa’s authorities defended the workout routines themselves as “important,” calling them “an indication of our collective resolve to work collectively.”
Benin elections. Vote counting is underway after Benin held elections on Sunday for a brand new parliament and native state officers, a month after a coup try didn’t topple President Patrice Talon. Talon’s ruling three-party coalition holds 81 out of 109 seats within the Nationwide Meeting and is anticipated to additional strengthen its affect within the legislature.
Talon’s critics say that he has applied a crackdown on the opposition and journalists in addition to weakened fundamental freedoms. In late October, the nation’s electoral physique banned the primary opposition celebration, the Democrats, from competing in native races, citing incomplete documentation, though they’re contesting the parliamentary races.
The Democrats have additionally been excluded from the upcoming April presidential election for failing to safe the required variety of endorsement signatures, the electoral physique stated. Talon can’t run within the race on account of time period limits, however his handpicked successor, Finance Minister Romuald Wadagni, is anticipated to win.
Senegal vs. the IMF. Senegal is hoping that an improve in tax assortment throughout the first quarter of this yr will enhance its probabilities of securing a brand new mortgage from the IMF, Bloomberg reported final week.
The nation is at odds with the fund, which desires Senegal to bear a harsh debt restructuring plan. Senegal’s earlier $1.8 billion IMF mortgage was suspended in 2024 because of the discovery of $7 billion in undisclosed debt by a earlier administration. Senegal’s greenback bonds have rallied thus far this yr, in accordance with Bloomberg.
Wang Yi’s Africa tour. China’s high diplomat started his annual new yr tour of Africa final Wednesday, centered on commerce logistics entry and geopolitical diplomacy.
Overseas Minister Wang Yi’s journey included stops in Ethiopia, Tanzania, and Lesotho. Ethiopia is navigating a complete debt restructuring course of underneath the G-20 Frequent Framework. China is its largest bilateral lender and commerce accomplice.
Wang had initially been scheduled to go to Somalia, too—a rustic that provides China strategic Crimson Sea port entry. However the Chinese language Overseas Ministry referred to as off the go to on the final second “on account of technical points.”
