With Thanksgiving lower than three weeks away, the query of how a lot this yr’s turkey and trimmings will price looms giant, particularly with grocery costs 2.7% larger than they had been in 2024.
President Donald Trump has claimed over the previous two days that prices for the Thanksgiving meal are down 25% this yr, citing a prepackaged Thanksgiving meal basket from Walmart.
“I simply noticed that Walmart got here out with an announcement final night time, they’ve completed it for a few years, that Thanksgiving this yr will price 25% lower than Thanksgiving final yr,” he stated throughout a information convention on Friday with Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán.
However Trump’s numbers are off. Right here’s a better take a look at the info.
CLAIM: Walmart costs present that the price of Thanksgiving dinner is 25% decrease in 2025 than in 2024.
THE FACTS: That is deceptive. Whereas Walmart’s 2025 meal basket prices about 25% lower than the one from 2024, that’s as a result of it provides fewer gadgets and totally different merchandise that make it extra inexpensive.
“It’s not apples to apples, proper?” stated David Anderson, a livestock economist at Texas A&M College. “What this does spotlight is particular person retailers’ methods for getting prospects within the door.”
The 2025 basket prices lower than $40 and feeds 10 individuals, about $4 a head, based on Walmart. In 2024, a basket for eight price roughly $56, lower than $7 per individual. That’s a couple of 25% lower, presumably extra relying on worth fluctuations. John Furner, president and CEO of Walmart U.S., touted the financial savings in a LinkedIn publish final month.
However the baskets differ considerably. For instance, this yr’s contains simply 15 gadgets in comparison with final yr’s 29. It’s lacking many dessert gadgets, together with a pecan pie, mini marshmallows and muffin combine, in addition to savory gadgets resembling candy potatoes, yellow onions and celery stalks.
The superstore retailer has additionally substituted some merchandise. As a substitute of 12 candy Hawaiian rolls, the 2025 deal contains 12 dinner rolls. Each are from Walmart’s retailer model. It additionally provides Kinder’s crispy fried onions versus French’s.
Plus, the quantity of every merchandise varies. Prospects had been promised a 10-16 pound turkey in 2024, however a 13.5 pound one this yr. They usually’ll get one can of cream of mushroom soup as an alternative of two.
“They’re advertising it that ‘hey, it is a extra inexpensive manner,’ but that suggests that ‘man, stuff’s much more costly,’” Anderson stated. “I suppose it’s good advertising.”
A Thursday press launch from the White Home additionally cited cheaper Thanksgiving offers at Lidl’s, Aldi’s, Goal and Schnucks.
Goal’s four-person meal prices lower than $20, about the identical as in 2024, however substitutes inexperienced beans and cream of mushroom soup for French bread and frozen corn — additionally not an apples-to-apples comparability.
Schnucks offered The Related Press with a press launch saying the retailer is providing shoppers its lowest worth on a frozen store-brand turkey in over 15 years. It declined additional remark. Lidl US stated it’s providing its Thanksgiving meal on the lowest ever worth and Aldi stated its worth was decrease than 2024. Goal and Walmart didn’t remark.
In line with a latest report from Wells Fargo, the price of a 10-person Thanksgiving meal has fallen 2% to three% since 2024, relying partly on whether or not prospects go for nationwide title manufacturers or cheaper retailer labels. The White Home press launch additionally cited this report.
Some economists have issues concerning the worth of turkey. Purdue College’s School of Agriculture reported on the finish of October that wholesale costs are up 75% since October 2024, whereas retail costs are 25% larger than a yr in the past.
An earlier evaluation from the American Farm Bureau Federation discovered that wholesale turkey costs had been up about 40%.
And but, that doesn’t imply each fowl might be pricier in 2025. Anderson defined that as a result of sure retailers, resembling Walmart, contract their turkeys properly prematurely, the worth for purchasers is likely to be a lot decrease than the market at the moment signifies.
“That offers them the flexibleness to run these varieties of specials,” he stated.
