Ukraine is bringing the conflict dwelling to Russia at a scale, scope, and depth not seen earlier than, and in a approach that would have penalties—possibly not on the battlefield, however within the hearts, minds, and pocketbooks of strange Russians.
Since August, Ukraine has gone after Russian oil services with a vengeance. Kyiv has been sporadically focusing on refineries and depots for the higher a part of two years, however due to the proliferation of small, low cost drones, and a few greater ones, and maybe even a homegrown cruise missile, Ukraine is now completely hammering Russia’s far-flung oil installations.
Ukraine is bringing the conflict dwelling to Russia at a scale, scope, and depth not seen earlier than, and in a approach that would have penalties—possibly not on the battlefield, however within the hearts, minds, and pocketbooks of strange Russians.
Since August, Ukraine has gone after Russian oil services with a vengeance. Kyiv has been sporadically focusing on refineries and depots for the higher half of two years, however due to the proliferation of small, low cost drones, and a few greater ones, and maybe even a homegrown cruise missile, Ukraine is now completely hammering Russia’s far-flung oil installations.
It’s not essential to do the entire litany of the targets which were struck—there was one other one simply this week—to understand that Ukraine has, in a way, stamped a “return to sender” on three years of relentless Russian airstrikes on properties, hospitals, kindergartens, and youngsters.
Bread traces in Russia have now given strategy to fuel traces.
The Ukrainian air counteroffensive has taken a toll on Russia’s refinery advanced, a giant a part of the way in which Moscow makes cash to fund its conflict. However, breathless reviews apart, specialists say Ukraine has not but disabled half of Russia’s oil services or kneecapped 38 p.c of Russia’s refinery capability. That quantity is approach excessive.
“Nicely, that’s simply bollocks,” mentioned Sergey Vakulenko, who till 2022 was a senior government at a Russian power agency.
What’s true is that Ukraine has, due to the provision of mass-produced drones, been in a position to strike targets so far as 2,000 kilometers inside Russia. Small drones pack a small punch however can evade scattered Russian air defenses, or not less than sufficient of them to do some injury. And Ukraine could, if the Economist is true, have already unleashed the Flamingo, its homegrown, warhead-packing cruise missile. Both approach, direct U.S. assist, whether or not within the type of Tomahawk cruise missiles or different long-range firepower, is probably not make-or-break for Kyiv.
The larger query is what, precisely, Ukraine hopes to attain by its offensive. Russia has itself just lately upped the tempo of its assaults on Ukraine’s pure fuel sector, after beforehand focusing on largely energy crops. Turnabout is truthful play, so hanging Russian power infrastructure after years of relentless assaults is however a baseline. However what’s the goal?
“The primary is to make it painful for the inhabitants,” mentioned Vakulenko, who’s now a senior fellow on the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Heart. “The second is to make it painful for Russia’s financial system.” The third potential goal, he mentioned, was not going to occur: As a lot as Ukraine hits refineries and disrupts diesel distilling and the like, it will likely be unlikely to hobble the Russian military as a consequence of gas shortages.
The Russian inhabitants has gone by means of rather a lot in the previous few centuries and many years, however the previous few years have additionally been noteworthy. The ruble collapsed for a spell, although it rallied considerably in 2025. However inflation is increased than the nation’s defense-juiced employment numbers. Banks are holding and hiding money owed, and huge ones. A rustic that former U.S. Sen. John McCain as soon as described as a fuel station with nuclear weapons now has fuel traces in Vladivostok.
An individual of a sure age who grew up in the US, with recollections of traces of vehicles angrily nosing towards empty fuel pumps within the Nineteen Seventies, might assume that such a home disaster could be pivotal. Nevertheless it won’t be in President Vladimir Putin’s Russia.
“I might assume that Putin has a greater maintain on elections than Jimmy Carter had,” Vakulenko mentioned.
When it comes to the Russian financial system, the Ukrainian strikes do one factor very properly, which is restrict Russia’s capability to show crude oil into higher-value refined merchandise. What meaning is that Russia simply ships the uncooked materials. That brings much less income, and the nation is working out of port capability, however it nonetheless will get to world markets, particularly since Russian shadow tanker fleets are working rampant.
That doesn’t, although, dent Russia’s total earnings from power very a lot, if in any respect. These have held regular, for years now, at round 550 million euros a day. Russia has a lot spare refining capability that even knocking out total chunks of it, as Ukraine has performed, is not going to knock that advanced out chilly.
What the offensive does seem to have performed is add pressure to Russia’s already-burdened power sector. Excellent loans held by Russian refineries have ballooned to nearly $14 billion within the 12 months by means of July 2025, mentioned Craig Kennedy, an professional on Russian power at Harvard College. He instructed that the sudden surge of debt may very well be defined by the acquisition of urgently wanted tools from China to restore broken installations.
The refinery strikes, a part of a wider marketing campaign to restrict Russia’s oil and fuel earnings, do weigh within the steadiness of Kremlin calculations, even when spare elements and spare capability are in a position to tide the nation by means of the worst of the onslaught.
“On their very own, the [refinery strikes] are unlikely to alter that calculus, however as a part of a broader, multifront assault on the oil sector, they could,” Kennedy mentioned.
Ukraine’s offensive towards Russian refineries could not have hit totally dwelling, within the sense of bringing the regime to its knees. However on the subject of refined petroleum merchandise, reminiscent of gasoline, or aviation gas, the message is on the margins. In 1940, in the course of the Battle of Britain, Spitfire pilots had a secret weapon: U.S.-made, high-octane aviation gas that allowed them to defeat the Luftwaffe. It wasn’t a refinery breakthrough as a lot as a chemistry breakthrough, however little issues could make a giant distinction when international locations are at conflict.
Ukraine is nibbling away at these margins.
“They don’t seem to be there but. It’s not the dying blow. It has gone from a small inconvenience to a significant nuisance,” Vakulenko mentioned. “What’s subsequent is whether or not Ukraine can maintain that, or if Russia can discipline efficient air defenses in all places.”
