Customers and guests on London’s Oxford Avenue courageous the unhealthy climate utilizing Union Flag umbrellas on sixth Could 2024.
Mike Kemp | In Photos | Getty Photos
The U.Okay. economic system grew a meager 0.1% within the third quarter, in line with preliminary figures from the Workplace for Nationwide Statistics, marking one of many final main items of financial knowledge to be launched forward of the Autumn Funds.
Economists polled by Reuters anticipated the economic system to have grown 0.2% over the July-September interval, following an enlargement of 0.3% within the second quarter.
Month-on-month, the economic system shrank by 0.1% in September, following no progress in August (which was revised down from a 0.1% enlargement within the ONS’ earlier knowledge).
“Progress slowed additional within the third quarter of the 12 months with each companies and building weaker than within the earlier interval. There was additionally an additional contraction in manufacturing,” Liz McKeown, director of Financial Statistics on the ONS, mentioned on Thursday.
Throughout the quarter as a complete manufacturing drove the weak spot in manufacturing, the ONS mentioned, highlighting the cyber assault on Jaguar Land Rover, which halted manufacturing for 5 weeks, as a serious supply of financial disruption.
“There was a very marked fall in automotive manufacturing in September, reflecting the impression of a cyber incident, in addition to a decline within the often-erratic pharmaceutical trade,” McKeown mentioned in feedback posted on social media platform X.
Funds increase, or blow?
The info comes forward of the British authorities’s extremely anticipated Autumn Funds on Nov. 26, at which Finance Minister Rachel Reeves is anticipated to announce contemporary tax hikes with a view to fill a fiscal black gap.
There are issues that tax hikes might put a dampener on shopper spending and financial exercise, however the economic system might get a pre-Christmas increase if the Financial institution of England cuts rates of interest at its final assembly of the 12 months on Dec. 18.
“All eyes will now be on the upcoming Funds with one other weak GDP studying solely including to debates round which levers the Chancellor can pull to stimulate progress,” Scott Gardner, funding strategist at JPMorgan Private Investing, mentioned in emailed evaluation.
“In our view, boosting housing market exercise is essential to unlocking respectable, sustained progress … That mentioned, with tax rises all however confirmed, consumption and, in flip, companies spending might face extra headwinds from the second quarter of subsequent 12 months when tax and spend measures might come into place. It stays all to play for,” he added.
Rachel Reeves, U.Okay. chancellor of the exchequer, delivers a speech in London, UK, on Tuesday, Nov. 4, 2025.
Bloomberg | Bloomberg | Getty Photos
At its most up-to-date assembly final week, the Financial institution of England held off trimming charges with BOE Governor Andrew Bailey telling CNBC that he and the financial institution’s financial coverage committee wished to see one other batch of inflation and labor market prints earlier than appearing.
Rob Wooden, chief U.Okay. economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, was among the many economists anticipating a Christmas fee minimize whether or not the most recent GDP knowledge confirmed a bounce, or not.
“We imagine the MPC [BOE’s monetary policy committee) would reduce rates in December even with an upside GDP surprise, as a likely contractionary Budget on November 26 dominates its deliberations,” Wood said in emailed analysis ahead of the GDP data.
“But growth is proving resilient, running close to the U.K.’s potential of 0.3% quarter-to-quarter despite strong headwinds from fiscal and global uncertainty.”
Wood believed that resilient growth would limit the emergence of spare capacity, making it trickier for the BOE to cut interest rates again in 2026, although some economists predict there could be two rate cuts next year.
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