Lower than two months after a cordial summit with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Alaska, the White Home is contemplating sending Ukraine long-range Tomahawk missiles, a transfer that Putin known as a “utterly new stage of escalation” on Thursday.
Sending the highly effective weapons—which might attain Moscow—would mark one other main political shift from an administration that till not too long ago appeared skeptical of Ukraine’s possibilities of profitable the struggle towards Russia.
Lower than two months after a cordial summit with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Alaska, the White Home is contemplating sending Ukraine long-range Tomahawk missiles, a transfer that Putin known as a “utterly new stage of escalation” on Thursday.
Sending the highly effective weapons—which might attain Moscow—would mark one other main political shift from an administration that till not too long ago appeared skeptical of Ukraine’s possibilities of profitable the struggle towards Russia.
However sending them suits properly into each Ukrainian and U.S. army methods, based on consultants, offering Kyiv with an additional enhance to its to this point profitable technique of concentrating on Russian oil whereas impacting U.S. weapons shares as little as doable.
Talking on Sunday, U.S. Vice President J.D. Vance mentioned america was “taking a look at” promoting the missiles to Ukraine, following experiences that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky had requested america for the weapons final week. The Wall Avenue Journal reported on Wednesday that america will give Ukraine intelligence for long-range strikes on Russia’s oil sector.
Tomahawks would give Ukraine a lift in its current marketing campaign to focus on Russian oil manufacturing, based on Bryan Clark, a senior fellow on the Hudson Institute assume tank, and Mark Cancian, a senior advisor with the Middle for Strategic and Worldwide Research assume tank.
That marketing campaign is already going properly. Ukrainian drone strikes have reduce Russia’s oil-refining quantity by as a lot as one-fifth, posing a problem to Russia’s federal price range, which depends on oil and fuel income for as a lot as half of its spending. The army marketing campaign aligns with diplomatic strain from U.S. President Donald Trump, who has centered on pressuring international locations to cut back their purchases of Russian power.
Nonetheless, the payload of those drones is considerably lower than the Tomahawk, which sports activities a 1,000-pound warhead. Ukraine in August additionally started utilizing a domestically produced new missile just like the Tomahawk, dubbed Flamingo, however the missile is comparatively untested and out there in solely small portions.
“There’s a giant distinction within the lethality” between Ukrainian drones and the Tomahawk, mentioned Clark.
For Washington, in the meantime, Tomahawks are seemingly enticing as a result of the U.S. has so most of the weapons, Cancian mentioned.
The USA has produced the weapons because the Nineteen Eighties and sure has a stockpile of 1000’s. A 2025 price range submission states that the Protection Division has purchased nearly 9,000 of the missiles. Whereas the U.S. army routinely fires them on operations—together with in volleys of dozens of missiles at a time—it would have the ability to spare as many as 200 for Ukraine, Cancian mentioned.
“The inventories are fairly sturdy if you embody the older variations,” he mentioned.
A few of these weapons are already nearing their retirement age, Clark added, which means they’d be higher off being utilized by Ukraine now somewhat than expiring in a U.S. warehouse someplace. In contrast, newer weapons with related ranges—such because the Navy’s SM-6 or the Air Power’s JASSM missiles—have smaller stockpiles, he mentioned.
That’s to not say supplying the weapons might be straightforward.
Chief among the many issues could also be overcoming seemingly arguments from Pentagon policymakers that america can’t spare even a single Tomahawk for Ukraine. In July, the Protection Division briefly suspended transfers of some munitions to Ukraine following a overview of U.S. stockpiles.
That overview was reportedly ordered by Protection Division coverage head Elbridge Colby, who has lengthy argued that Washington ought to focus on getting ready for a possible struggle with China over different areas. Tomahawks, whose lengthy vary make them a perfect weapon for the Pacific, are “completely” the form of long-range weapon america would wish in such a struggle, mentioned Cancian.
After all, the White Home might overrule any Pentagon considerations, as Trump did by restarting weapons shipments following the sooner pause.
One more drawback is likely to be how Ukraine would truly launch the missiles, that are primarily ship-launched. The U.S. Marine Corps has fielded small numbers of ground-based launchers underneath a not too long ago canceled program. The Military can be standing up new ground-based Tomahawk launchers, however that program is in its infancy.
Nonetheless, Clark expressed optimism that Ukraine might jury-rig one thing collectively, noting Ukraine’s success in adapting sea-launched Harpoon missiles for land launches.
Lastly, Russia’s personal response might affect the U.S. determination. Clark rated the diploma of escalation as low, nonetheless, declaring that Ukraine is already hitting targets deep inside Russia.
“Ukraine’s already executing the sorts of assaults you are able to do with a Tomahawk with drones,” mentioned Clark. “So this might simply be a distinct method of doing the identical assaults they’re already doing.
