When U.S. President Donald Trump first mentioned buying Greenland in his first time period, the idea was seen as solely semi-serious. Nationwide safety leaders in Washington acknowledged the strategic significance of the Danish territory but in addition accepted that the island was clearly not on the market. Now, a yr into his second time period, Trump has made more and more clear as soon as once more his need for america to amass Greenland—with or with out Denmark’s consent.
Trump’s feedback, whereas alarming and broadly condemned by European leaders, disguise an even bigger drawback: The US lacks a coherent technique for the Arctic area, and making an attempt to take management of Greenland is just not a viable substitute for one. As a substitute of threatening annexation, Washington ought to increase its cooperation with companions and allies within the area and scale up its protection and civilian infrastructure investments.
When U.S. President Donald Trump first mentioned buying Greenland in his first time period, the idea was seen as solely semi-serious. Nationwide safety leaders in Washington acknowledged the strategic significance of the Danish territory but in addition accepted that the island was clearly not on the market. Now, a yr into his second time period, Trump has made more and more clear as soon as once more his need for america to amass Greenland—with or with out Denmark’s consent.
Trump’s feedback, whereas alarming and broadly condemned by European leaders, disguise an even bigger drawback: The US lacks a coherent technique for the Arctic area, and making an attempt to take management of Greenland is just not a viable substitute for one. As a substitute of threatening annexation, Washington ought to increase its cooperation with companions and allies within the area and scale up its protection and civilian infrastructure investments.
The Arctic grows in significance even because the ice shrinks. Melting ice signifies that Arctic sea routes will turn out to be more and more navigable for ships, even with out icebreaking capabilities. On the identical time, the area is residence to substantial pure sources, with the U.S. Geological Survey estimating that the Arctic is residence to 13 p.c of the world’s undiscovered standard oil and 30 p.c of undiscovered standard gasoline sources. Greenland can be residence to substantial reserves of essential minerals, in excessive demand as Western nations have began to acknowledge China’s management of those sources.
Russia and China are rising their very own presence within the area. Moscow has lengthy invested within the area, the place it maintains 12 navy bases and 16 deep-water ports. Russia can be the solely nation on the planet with a nuclear-powered icebreaker fleet, at present numbering eight ships, and goals so as to add extra. China can be growing its presence within the Arctic, working with Russia to develop designs for a year-round container ship able to transiting the Arctic.
Beijing at present operates three icebreakers, permitting China to undertake dual-use civil-military analysis actions throughout the Arctic. The Arctic can be a essential area for safeguarding the U.S. homeland, and radar methods operated by america and Canada through the North American Aerospace Protection Command present Washington and Ottawa the flexibility to defend the continent.
Looking for entry to sources, transport routes, and countering Russia and China are all affordable objectives for Washington to attain within the Arctic. Nonetheless, seizing Greenland does little to additional them. As a substitute, Trump’s repeated feedback are undermining U.S. relations with Denmark, a key NATO ally, and with Greenland itself. Washington already operates a navy base in Greenland, Pituffik Area Base, and U.S. rare-earth processing and magnet corporations have signed nonbinding agreements with an organization that operates a essential mineral deposit in Greenland.
The US can improve its navy presence and financial investments on the island with out annexation; certainly, Greenlandic Prime Minister Jens-Frederik Nielsen acknowledged in late December that “there isn’t any impediment to america growing safety within the Arctic on Greenlandic territory if they need to take action.” The 1951 Greenland protection settlement signed by Denmark and america permits Washington to construct new bases throughout the island, along with the prevailing base at Pituffik. Moreover, the Greenlandic authorities has already moved to dam Chinese language investments on the island, responding to U.S. strain to take action, and denying Beijing a possibility to increase its Arctic footprint.
Denmark, of which Greenland is a semi-autonomous territory, has elevated cooperation with america, and final yr its parliament signed a invoice permitting the U.S. navy to assemble bases on Danish soil. The deal permits america to maintain a navy presence in Europe and permits for simple entry to Northern Europe. However Copenhagen has made clear that this settlement may be terminated if Trump strikes to annex all or elements of Greenland.
An identical dynamic is unfolding among the many Icebreaker Collaboration Effort (ICE) Pact members. The ICE Pact is a trilateral deal amongst Canada, Finland, and america to mix data and sources to construct Arctic and polar icebreakers. Regardless of shut coordination among the many three nations, Trump’s feedback about making Canada the “51st state” have led to a majority of Canadians now seeing america as a adverse power on the planet and the Globe and Mail to publish an editorial titled, “Venezuela’s destiny is a warning for Canada.”
Canada is now reconsidering its buy of U.S.-made F-35s and is trying to new protection and safety partnerships outdoors of america. As with Greenland and Denmark, Canada has been a keen and cooperative associate with america on Arctic safety issues and is essential to the continued shared duty for the protection of North America. Statements about seizing territory won’t carry Canada, Denmark, and Greenland nearer to america; if something, it can push them additional away.
One nation that the Trump administration does appear to be contemplating partnering with is Russia, the place a potential peace deal in Ukraine could result in joint Russian-U.S. financial actions within the Arctic. However any kind of partnership within the Arctic will go away america the junior associate; Russia already has intensive civilian and navy infrastructure throughout the area that it makes use of to use sources and stake its declare. As a substitute of partnering with Moscow, america ought to flip to its NATO allies and different companions to understand its industrial pursuits within the Arctic. Greenland, Canada, and others are all signaling a willingness to extend their funding and industrial actions within the area, and Washington can be sensible to associate with them over Russia.
Trump ought to concentrate on areas the place he has already had success, together with in pushing for allies and companions to tackle an elevated burden in Arctic protection and safety. Final month, Canada pledged 1 billion Canadian {dollars} over 4 years to enhance dual-use infrastructure throughout the area. In October, Denmark pledged $4.2 billion in additional spending to bolster safety within the Arctic and North Atlantic, together with Greenland. Washington also needs to focus by itself Arctic territory; current investments in Alaskan civilian and protection infrastructure introduced through the Nationwide Protection Authorization Act are an encouraging step.
Exterior of elevated spending, shut cooperation with different Arctic states and a shared understanding of the threats posed by adversaries within the area can be essential to strengthening protection. Right here, collaborations such because the ICE Pact and the basing of U.S. navy personnel in Greenland can be essential to deterring Russia and China within the Arctic. Extra of those collaborations ought to be explored, however Trump’s threats are wrecking these agreements.
In its method to the Arctic area, the Biden administration launched a protection technique that known as for enhancing the capabilities of the Joint Power within the Arctic, partaking with companions and native officers, and exercising presence throughout the area. Trump can be nicely served to construct on the robust, coherent strategic framework began within the Biden administration. A coherent technique will produce higher returns than wild threats.
