Over the past decade or so, Mohammad Javad Zarif has been probably the most distinguished face of Iranian diplomacy. As international minister between 2013 and 2021, Zarif negotiated the Joint Complete Plan of Motion (JCPOA), often known as the Iran nuclear deal, and represented a faction in Tehran that noticed some profit in diplomacy with the West. However immediately, the nuclear deal is in tatters, Iran suffered humiliating assaults by Israel and america throughout a 12-day struggle in June, and proxy teams resembling Hamas and Hezbollah have been decapitated. What does Tehran have to indicate for its international coverage?
On the newest episode of FP Reside, I spoke with Zarif, now an unbiased analyst. Zarif was most just lately Iran’s vp for strategic affairs however stepped down in March. Watch the total dialogue on the video field atop this web page, or hearken to the FP Reside podcast. What follows here’s a flippantly edited and condensed transcript.
Ravi Agrawal: Let me begin with the so-called 12-day struggle in June. To recap, Israel launched a collection of assaults on Iran’s army and nuclear services, killing a number of prime army leaders and nuclear scientists. Then America joined in and bombed three nuclear websites. Tehran’s response was fairly muted. You weren’t in authorities when this occurred, however you’re, in fact, properly linked in Iranian politics. From my perspective, the 12-day struggle appeared extraordinarily damaging for Iran. Was it?
Mohammad Javad Zarif: The 12-day struggle occurred simply two days earlier than my associates within the International Ministry had been presupposed to go for a brand new spherical of negotiations with their American counterparts. It created a picture in Iran that negotiations for america had been only a pretext for an assault, which may be very damaging. From my perspective, I imagine in diplomacy. This was very damaging to diplomacy generally.
Secondly, it was a premeditated assault, not solely in opposition to army and nuclear targets however in opposition to harmless civilians. Many harmless civilians had been killed. Army leaders weren’t focused of their workplaces or on the struggle entrance, however they had been focused at residence, after they had been sleeping with the youngsters and spouses. In accordance with what I do know of worldwide regulation, that constitutes a struggle crime. Nuclear scientists, in addition to different scientists, had been murdered solely as a result of they had been scientists. That is an especially harmful precedent that these folks had been murdered.
RA: However respectfully, that doesn’t reply my query. How damaging was this for Iran?
MJZ: Iran was broken. This was an aggression, and all aggressions often injury the sufferer. However a fable of Israeli invincibility was shattered. Iran has been underneath sanctions for 40 years; no person sells Iran any army tools. However with all of that, Iran was succesful to interrupt the so-called Iron Dome of the Israelis and was in a position to assault Israeli army targets from Iran solely with its missiles, drones, and cruise missiles. We had been broken, however we confirmed one factor that’s vital for everyone to grasp: Iran shouldn’t be a simple prey. Israel and america—two nuclear-armed powers—got here collectively to assault Iran, and, on the finish of the day, Iran was standing tall. That’s fairly a significant achievement for Iran.
RA: Inform me the way you interpret Iran as “standing tall” after its nuclear services had been broken, and even destroyed, because the White Home says. Iran’s air defenses had been principally taken out of the sport. So many nuclear, army, and political personnel had been killed.
MJZ: Clearly, we had been the sufferer of an unprovoked assault, of an aggression, principally a shock assault. We had been broken, however that’s not the purpose. The purpose is we responded. We confirmed that we can’t be focused and that the aggressor faces penalties. Even america was satisfied that Iran won’t merely take it sitting down. President [Donald] Trump himself identified that they understood Iran would retaliate. And that’s the reason they emptied the entire barracks in our neighborhood. That’s an vital level to notice for the long run: Coping with Iran on this means won’t resolve your drawback, won’t resolve America’s drawback, won’t remedy anyone’s drawback.
RA: Right here’s one factor I genuinely don’t perceive. It’s well-known that Iran funds teams like Hamas and Hezbollah and the Houthi rebels. And in the meantime, respectfully, the Iranian economic system has gone from dangerous to worse. You have got some 60 % unemployment amongst working-age Iranians; inflation is at 35 %; GDP per capita is half what it was in 2012. Iran was an important empire; its economic system immediately is smaller than that of Bangladesh or Chile. How is any of this in Tehran’s strategic curiosity? Clarify to me what Iran will get out of pursuing battle with Israel or the notion that it’s pursuing a nuclear bomb, which ends up in this type of a response from the West.
MJZ: We have now a means of securitization that Israel and notably [Prime Minister Benjamin] Netanyahu have been following in opposition to Iran for the reason that ’90s. When you hearken to Netanyahu, within the mid-’90s he stated Iran was six months away from a nuclear bomb. We’re about 30 years from then, and we’re nonetheless, at the very least earlier than the bombing, a number of months away from the bomb. So Iran shouldn’t be looking for a nuclear bomb. That’s a hype. We’re not answerable for the narrative that Israel tries to create.
Let me make one level right here that I feel is vital. The existential menace to Israel is peace. That’s the reason it objected to the JCPOA. The JCPOA, which I negotiated, would have made sure and verifiable that Iran didn’t produce a nuclear bomb. Why did Israel object to that? As a result of it created calm in our neighbor.
As for the teams which are combating Israel, let’s not overlook the truth that they’re combating occupation. They’re combating tyranny; they’re combating genocide; they’re combating mass hunger. They aren’t combating for Iran. I can inform you that in my 40 earlier years of expertise as a diplomat, I didn’t see a single shot being fired by these teams to advance Iranian pursuits. They had been combating for their very own lives, for his or her residence.
RA: All the things you’re saying right here about Israel, I’ll go away to the Israelis to defend. However let’s say you’re proper that Iran doesn’t desire a bomb and that if it needed a bomb, it might get a bomb. The notion, after Oct. 7 [when, in 2023, Hamas attacked Israel], that Iran has funded proxy teams is damaging. What does Iran get out of this? As a result of the offshoot of it, as you your self are admitting immediately, is that the Iranian economic system is struggling; Iran has confronted these assaults from America and from Israel.
MJZ: Did we trigger that? You might be changing the trigger and impact. The reason for all of that is occupation. The reason for all of that is apartheid. The reason for that is genocide in Palestine. We didn’t trigger that. Hamas didn’t take orders from Tehran with the intention to assault or defend itself. It was in a means of back-and-forth that we now have seen since Oct. 7.
You say Iran’s economic system has suffered. The USA and Iran are engaged in a zero-sum recreation, and in a zero-sum recreation, all people will endure. The USA was succesful, by most strain of President Trump, of significantly damaging the Iranian economic system. However was the target to wreck the Iranian economic system? If their goal was to restrict Iranian nuclear capabilities, Iranian nuclear capabilities have grown 10 occasions between when President Trump took workplace the primary time and now. So we endure in our aims of rising and creating. However america additionally suffered.
I spent many days and months with [then-U.S. Secretary of State] John Kerry in Vienna with the intention to attain [the nuclear] settlement. We didn’t break that settlement. Any individual else broke that settlement, so we shouldn’t be blamed for the implications of someone else’s dangerous religion.
RA: It isn’t my job to defend an American or an Israeli administration. As an analyst, I’ve criticized the Trump administration’s withdrawal from the JCPOA.
However once more, on the crux of this, why is Iran’s present posture in its strategic curiosity? What you’re describing as a genocide in Israel, let’s say all of that’s right. Why should the Iranian folks endure? As a result of I’m not seeing the Saudi folks endure. I’m not seeing the Turkish folks endure. I’m not seeing the Egyptians endure. I’m not seeing Iraqis endure. You possibly can disagree as as to if Iran is constructing a bomb and funding all these teams, however that notion is in the end what’s hurting Iran. Due to this fact the query stays, why not change that notion?
MJZ: I wrote in your journal a couple of completely different future and a special paradigm, so I’m all for a special future.
However let’s discuss in regards to the previous. Who began this? Who destroyed JCPOA? We negotiated in good religion. We spent plenty of time. Benjamin Netanyahu has written that it’s his life’s mission to destroy the settlement applauded by your complete worldwide neighborhood. Now he has been in a position to promote a misinform the worldwide neighborhood. In 1990, when Israel determined to begin the so-called peace course of—which it by no means supposed to be a peace course of—with the Arab world, it determined to exchange its enemy. And that enemy turned Iran. Earlier than that the enemy was Palestinians, terrorists, and Arabs. Then rapidly, it began to be an Iranian menace. Even biblical tales had been modified, from Cyrus to Esther and Mordecai and Purim. Purim was represented as a historic anti-Iran perspective.
Why is it that one individual can misinform the American folks, to the worldwide neighborhood, on the expense of america and on the expense of the worldwide neighborhood solely with the intention to survive? Netanyahu is doing this solely with the intention to survive. His survival depends upon cleanups; his survival depends upon crises. And that’s the reason instantly after the 12-day struggle, he began the struggle in opposition to Syria. Instantly after the Syrian struggle, he began the whole occupation of Gaza. He has rejected each peace providing.
RA: Let’s transfer on. The so-called E3—Britain, France, and Germany—are speaking about snapback sanctions, to reimpose sure U.N. sanctions on Iran. May this be a second the place reformists in Iran could be within the ascendancy? Would possibly Iranians be prepared to speak to america once more for one more nuclear deal?
MJZ: Let’s not confuse home and international coverage. I feel what the E3 try to do is, initially, unfounded as a result of Iran was observing absolutely the JCPOA, even a 12 months after Trump left it. Europe did not implement its personal commitments. After Trump withdrew from the JCPOA, the Europeans urged us to not cease. They made 11 commitments in two classes, in June and September of 2018, to me personally. They weren’t in a position to even implement one in all them. They determined to create a Nineteenth-century barter settlement with Iran. They weren’t even in a position to do this.
Now, I don’t know what audacity they’ve with the intention to attempt to use the dispute decision mechanism. It’s not known as snapback within the JCPOA or the [United Nations] Safety Council. It’s known as “dispute decision mechanism.” Iran resorted to the dispute decision mechanism in the course of the time that I used to be international minister, many occasions. We went by your complete course of. The Europeans promised to implement a few of their very own commitments, not to mention American commitments, and so they failed. And that’s the reason we took remedial measures. They can’t take remedial measures in opposition to remedial strategies, legally talking.
The timing is fascinating, too, as a result of a number of weeks in the past, as I wrote in International Coverage, they had been principally applauding Israeli violation of worldwide regulation attacking Iranian websites. I imply, the German chancellor stated that Israel is doing “soiled work … for [all of] us.” So, which possibility? They use struggle, after which they use diplomacy, after which they use mechanisms to resolve disputes. That is indicative of dangerous religion.
Shifting away from legalities, what good does it do to them? What did President Trump achieve by withdrawing from JCPOA? Will we reside in a safer world immediately? Will Europe reside in a safer world in the event that they use this dispute decision mechanism in dangerous religion with the intention to return to Safety Council resolutions that all of us determined to cease? What are they attempting to achieve? They attempt to assist Israel. A few of them, together with the E3 which are attempting to make use of this mechanism, even went so far as calling it self-defense. They need to return to their coverage drafting board and see what that is going to achieve them. What are they going to get? I feel there are diplomatic methods of shifting ahead. I wrote an article within the Guardian speaking a couple of Center East community for nonproliferation and nuclear cooperation. I wrote in your paper speaking a couple of nonaggression pact.
RA: I needed to carry up that article. Now, it’s not for me to defend European coverage or america’ coverage right here, however I can problem each side, and I can problem you in addition to a journalist. So, in that International Coverage article, you wrote that Iran can go from “an strategy centered on confronting perpetual threats to 1 targeted on exploiting alternatives.” You went on to say this “shouldn’t be solely possible however profoundly within the curiosity of Iran.” Elaborate a little bit bit on this. I’ve been pushing you on whether or not something that’s occurred previously is in Iran’s pursuits. I couldn’t fairly perceive the way it was, however seeking to the long run, what would a greater home and international coverage seem like for Iran and for the Iranian folks?
MJZ: Nicely, you speak about whether or not it was in Iran’s finest curiosity, had Iran had different choices. You don’t produce other choices if you’re attacked.
RA: However Iran doesn’t must fund Hamas. It doesn’t must fund Hezbollah.
MJZ: You gave examples of Arab nations; each single one in all them helps these teams. Each single one in all your allies helps these teams. Qatar helps them. Turkey helps them. Hamas’s officers are stationed in Qatar. Israel is attempting to distract consideration from its atrocities to Iran. This isn’t Iran’s struggle. That is Israeli aggression in opposition to Palestinians. If the Israelis attempt to divert consideration from the true trigger by merely selecting on Iran, it won’t resolve the issue.
I stated that Iran has been subjected to humiliation for the previous 220 years. Now, for the primary time in 220 years, Iran was able to exhibiting the world that it will possibly arise in opposition to two nuclear-armed powers and reply to them and never get all the way down to its knees, as President Trump as soon as stated. I’m not right here representing the Iranian authorities. I’m now talking as an analyst and as someone who hopes to have a greater future in our world relations. However I can inform you that the Iranian folks didn’t give up. It wasn’t simply the Iranian authorities; the folks stood with the nation, not essentially with the federal government, with the intention to confront exterior aggression.
Now we now have confirmed that we now have a strong basis to look to the long run. That future is usually a way forward for alternatives, a way forward for prospects, and we are able to see prospects within the nuclear deal by a consortium. We will see prospects within the route from Nakhchivan to Azerbaijan. We proposed a consortium of three+3—Iran, Russia, Turkey, Azerbaijan, Armenia, and Georgia—after I was international minister. Now we are able to implement that even with American contractors doing the contracting work. This may present safety and prosperity for the area. We will have cooperation within the nuclear discipline, in different fields, with our neighbors within the Arab world.
This requires a change of paradigm, but it surely takes two to tango. Iran alone can not do that. The USA must also acknowledge that the coverage of confrontation, the coverage of attempting to place strain on Iran—name it crippling sanctions throughout [the] Obama [administration], or name it most strain throughout Trump 1—none of those has labored. What you see immediately is a extra succesful Iran. Destroying Iranian nuclear websites didn’t destroy Iran’s nuclear functionality as a result of that functionality resides within the minds of Iranian scientists. Now, I do know that Israel dedicated struggle crimes by killing scientists and their households, however they can’t kill a whole lot of people that know the right way to advance nuclear expertise. So we now have that expertise. It’s wishful considering to imagine that by bombing three websites, they’ve destroyed that. So one of the best ways is to place that inside a framework. We tried to do this within the JCPOA; now we are able to do it in a regional framework so that everyone can relaxation assured that this shall be just for peaceable functions. I can inform you as someone who negotiated the JCPOA that that is fairly doable, supplied that we resolve to interrupt from the previous and take a look at the long run. We are actually prisoners of the previous, and we’re doomed to repeating the failures of the previous.
RA: Trump appears to wish to strike a number of peace offers world wide proper now. Would possibly he wish to strike a brand new nuclear take care of Iran or change the paradigms, as you’re describing?
MJZ: I feel President Trump is sort of able to doing that. He’s inquisitive about doing that. There’s just one situation: Cease listening to Bibi.
RA: Do you suppose he’s doubtless to do this? [To stop listening to Netanyahu?] When you had been in one in all your previous jobs, how would you persuade him to do this?
MJZ: I might persuade him of his earlier choice. He has written previously, and Netanyahu has written, that the U.S. withdrawal from the JCPOA was motivated by Netanyahu. It didn’t serve American pursuits. It didn’t serve world pursuits. We don’t have to be prisoners of the previous, however we are able to be taught from the previous. And President Trump is able to have a special future. That future is inside attain, supplied that he stops hoping for issues that he won’t ever be capable of obtain. Iran is a millennia-old nation. We have now gone by aggressions, invasions, however we now have remained. We have now stood tall in any case of this. We are going to proceed to be a vibrant civilization state, as we now have been the oldest civilization state. Let’s acknowledge it and take care of that.
I stated there’s a want for a paradigm shift. However there’s a want for paradigm shift on all sides. I hope that each one sides are prepared to do this.
RA: As an analyst now, if you take a look at President Trump in his second time period, from an Iranian perspective, what has his influence on the world been like?
MJZ: Nicely, the jury remains to be out, however there hasn’t been a lot achievement but. So we should always take a look at completely different alternatives, completely different avenues. Bombing Iran was actually not a option to be the “President of Peace”—and bombing Iran proper in the midst of the negotiations of your personal envoy. Who will belief america any longer? Who will attempt to negotiate with america any longer? I’ve a tough time convincing folks in Iran that diplomacy is price attempting due to what President Trump did. Is that the influence that he needs to depart? To show that the one means with america is to confront america? That the one language that america can hearken to is a language of pressure? Is {that a} legacy that they wish to go away? What wouldn’t it achieve the American folks? Wouldn’t it make America nice once more to bomb different nations, bully different nations, disrespect the leaders of different nations? Would that make any nation nice? We be taught by our millennia of civilization that respect begets respect.
RA: Do you suppose the world is shifting towards a post-unipolar order? What does that seem like to you?
MJZ: I imagine we by no means had a unipolar world order. I imagine there was an phantasm of a unipolar world order, and that phantasm ended with the Baker-Hamilton report of 2006 [on the Iraq War]. The USA tried to make use of its army supremacy from 1990 to 2004 with the intention to create a unipolar order in opposition to the chances of the rise of China and different builders. The Baker-Hamilton report put an finish to that phantasm.
We are actually shifting to a post-polar world the place you could have competing pursuits in numerous ranges. On the extent of army energy, clearly america spends many occasions greater than different nations. Most likely nearly thrice greater than China, 10 occasions greater than Russia and different nations. So it has army functionality. However has army functionality been in a position to present America safety? I lived in New York for a very long time, and I bear in mind visiting New York after 9/11, and even within the look of Individuals, New Yorkers, you can not really feel safety. The U.S. authorities couldn’t even present safety to its personal residents, which is the primary order of enterprise for any authorities. Within the army realm, actually america is probably the most succesful, however that doesn’t carry prosperity and safety. Within the financial realm, we actually have a number of actors. We have now nonstate actors within the safety discipline, from ISIS to others who’ve acted within the safety discipline. Now we now have nonstate actors within the expertise discipline who’re surpassing governments by way of functionality.
We have now moved away from our conventional idea of polarity. However there may be one other ingredient that’s vital. Polarity requires loyalty, and now nations have understood that everlasting loyalties don’t exist anymore. Folks have woken as much as the truth that we now have concern coalitions and short-term coalitions. Lengthy-term alliances are issues of the previous. All of those mixed will put us in a state of affairs when hegemony is inconceivable. Hegemonic tendencies could live on, each globally and regionally. However we now have such an advanced world, the place it’s inconceivable to have a hegemon—world hegemon or a regional hegemon. Let’s attempt to construct a special future. And that completely different future is a future based mostly on prospects. Not a future based mostly on menace.
