WASHINGTON — President Trump made historic good points with Latinos when he gained reelection final yr, boosting Republicans’ confidence that their financial message was serving to them make inroads with a bunch of voters who had lengthy leaned towards Democrats.
However on this week’s election, Democrats in key states have been in a position to disrupt that rightward shift by gaining again Latino help, exit polls confirmed.
In New Jersey and Virginia, the Democrats operating for governor made good points in counties with giant Latino populations, and general gained two-thirds of the Latino vote of their states, based on an NBC Information ballot.
And in California, a CNN exit ballot confirmed about 70% of Latinos voting in favor of Proposition 50, a Democratic redistricting initiative designed to counter Trump’s plans to reshape congressional maps in an effort to maintain GOP management of the Home.
The outcomes mark the primary concrete instance on the poll field of Latino voters turning away from the GOP — a shift foreshadowed by latest polling as their issues concerning the economic system and immigration raids have grown.
Democratic Rep. Mikie Sherrill celebrates with supporters after being elected New Jersey governor.
(Michael Nagle/Bloomberg by way of Getty Photos)
If the development continues, it may spell hassle for Republicans in subsequent yr’s midterm elections, mentioned Gary Segura, a professor of public coverage, political science and Chicana/o research at UCLA. This could possibly be very true in California and Texas, the place each events are banking on Latino voters to assist them decide up seats within the Home, Segura mentioned.
“A yr is a very long time in politics, however actually the vote on Prop. 50 is a really, excellent signal for the Democrats’ capacity to choose up the newly drawn congressional districts,” Segura mentioned. “I feel Latino voters can be actually instrumental within the end result.”
Democrats, in the meantime, are feeling optimistic that their warnings about Trump’s immigration crackdown and a nasty economic system are resonating with Latinos.
Republicans are questioning to what diploma the social gathering can keep help amongst Latinos with out Trump on the ticket. In 2024, Trump gained roughly 48% of the Latino vote nationally — a document for any Republican presidential candidate.
Some Republicans noticed this week’s tendencies amongst Latino voters as a “wakeup name.”
“The Hispanic vote will not be assured. Hispanics married President Donald Trump however are solely relationship the GOP,” Republican Rep. Maria Elvira Salazar of Florida mentioned in a social media video the day after the election. “I’ve been warning it: If the GOP doesn’t ship, we are going to lose the Hispanic vote everywhere in the nation.”
Financial points a major driver
Final yr Trump was in a position to leverage widespread frustration with the economic system to win the help of Latinos. He promised to create jobs and decrease the prices of dwelling.
However polling exhibits {that a} majority of Latino voters now disapprove of how Trump and the Republicans in command of Congress are dealing with the economic system. Half of Latinos mentioned they anticipated Trump’s financial insurance policies to go away them worse off a yr from now in a Unidos ballot launched final week.
In New Jersey, that sentiment was exemplified by voters like Rumaldo Gomez. He informed MSNBC he voted for Trump final yr however this week went for for the Democratic candidate for governor, Rep. Mikie Sherrill.
“Now, I take a look at Trump completely different,” Gomez mentioned. “The economic system doesn’t look good.”
Gomez added he’s “very unhappy” about immigration raids led by the Trump administration which have break up up hardworking households.
Whereas Latino voters concern being affected by immigration enforcement actions, polling suggests they’re extra involved about price of dwelling, jobs and housing. The Unidos ballot confirmed immigration rating fifth on the record of issues.
In New Jersey and Virginia, Democrats’ double-digit victories have been constructed on guarantees to scale back the price of dwelling, whereas blaming Trump for his or her financial ache.
Marcus Robinson, a spokesman for the Democratic Nationwide Committee, mentioned Democrats “expanded margins and flipped key counties by incomes again Latino voters who know Trump’s economic system leaves them behind.”
“These outcomes present that Latino communities need progress, not a return to chaos and damaged guarantees,” he mentioned.
Republicans see a distinct Trump challenge
GOP strategist Matt Terrill, who was chief of workers for then-Sen. Marco Rubio’s 2016 presidential marketing campaign, mentioned the election outcomes usually are not a referendum on Trump.
Latino voters swung left as a result of Trump wasn’t on the poll, he mentioned.
Final yr “it wasn’t Latino voters turning out for the Republican social gathering, it was Latino voters turning out for President Trump,” he mentioned. “Like him or not, he’s in a position to fireplace up voters that the Republican social gathering historically doesn’t get.”
With Trump barred by the Structure from operating for a 3rd time period, Republicans are left to marvel if they’ll get the Latino vote again when he isn’t on the poll. Terrill believes Republicans must hammer on the difficulty of affordability as a prime precedence.
Mike Madrid, a “by no means Trump” Republican and former political director of the California Republican Occasion, has a distinct principle.
“They’re abandoning each events,” Madrid mentioned of Latinos. “They deserted the Republican social gathering for a similar causes they deserted the Democratic social gathering in November: not addressing financial issues.”
The economic system has lengthy been the highest concern for Latinos, Madrid mentioned, but each events proceed to border the Latino political agenda round immigration.
“Latinos aren’t voting for Democrats or Republicans — they’re voting towards Democrats and towards Republicans,” Madrid mentioned. “It’s a really massive distinction. The partisans are all us as if we’re this peculiar unique little creature.”
The work forward
Democrat Abigail Spanberger was elected governor in Virginia partially due to massive good points in Latino-heavy communities. One of many largest good points was in Manassas Park, the place greater than 40% of residents are Latino. She gained the town by 42 factors, doubling the Democrats’ efficiency there in final yr’s election.
The shift towards Democrats occurred as a result of Latinos believed Trump when he promised to convey down excessive prices of dwelling and that he would solely go after violent criminals in immigration raids, mentioned Democratic strategist Maria Cardona, who labored with Spanberger’s marketing campaign on outreach to Spanish-language media.
As an alternative, she argued, Trump betrayed them.
Cardona mentioned Medicaid cuts beneath Trump’s huge spending package deal this yr, together with the discount of supplemental diet help amid the federal government shutdown, have Latinos households panicking.
“What Republicans misguidedly and mistakenly thought was a realignment of Latino voters simply turned out to be a blip,” she mentioned. “Latinos ought to by no means be thought-about a base vote.”
Political scientists warning that the election outcomes this week usually are not essentially indicative of how races will play out a yr from now.
“It’s only one election, however actually the seeds have been planted for robust Latino Democratic turnouts in 2026,” mentioned Brad Jones, a political science professor at UC Davis.
Now, each events want to elucidate how they count on to hold out their guarantees if elected.
“They will’t sit on their laurels and say, ‘nicely absolutely the Latinos are coming again as a result of the economic system is unhealthy and immigration enforcement is unhealthy,’” Jones mentioned. “The job of the Democratic social gathering is now to succeed in out to Latino voters in methods which can be extra than simply symbolic.”
