Welcome again to Overseas Coverage’s Scenario Report, the place, like U.S. President Donald Trump, we additionally sometimes take pleasure in strolling round our workplace rooftop space.
Alright, right here’s what’s on faucet for the day: Unpacking U.S. particular envoy Steve Witkoff’s fifth journey to Moscow, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s controversial Gaza takeover proposal, and a new U.S. tariff on semiconductors.
It typically appears as if Steve Witkoff is doing all the pieces, all over the place, abruptly. Trump initially tapped Witkoff to be his particular envoy to the Center East. However it wasn’t lengthy earlier than Witkoff—who some view because the de facto secretary of state—was spearheading diplomatic talks for the Trump administration on an array of different points, together with Ukraine.
Witkoff traveled to Moscow this week to fulfill with Russian President Vladimir Putin because the Trump administration continues to push for a peace deal between Moscow and Kyiv. Trump, who reentered the White Home in January assured that he might rapidly finish the warfare, has grown impatient with Putin as Russia has continued to pummel Ukraine with airstrikes. Witkoff’s go to to Russia got here forward of a Friday deadline Trump set for Moscow to cease the warfare or face new sanctions.
Trump mentioned “nice progress” was made throughout Witkoff’s assembly with Putin, however there didn’t look like any main breakthroughs, and secondary sanctions are nonetheless anticipated to be applied in opposition to Russia on Friday. Moscow is now pushing for a gathering between Trump and Putin, however it’s unclear if that may occur. Briefly, a Ukraine peace deal stays elusive.
That is a part of a broader pattern with regards to the problems Witkoff has been the Trump administration’s level man on.
Witkoff is Trump’s “Mr. Repair It,” and the president has positioned an unparalleled degree of belief in him to deal with quite a few the globe’s most intractable issues, from the Iran nuclear challenge to Israel’s warfare in Gaza to the Russia-Ukraine warfare and extra. However how a lot has Witkoff truly fastened?
Combined file. Witkoff did assist safe a six-week cease-fire in Gaza that started again in January. However that truce collapsed in March, and Witkoff has been unsuccessful in subsequent efforts for a brand new cease-fire deal.
Witkoff additionally performed a key function in facilitating a U.S. truce with the Houthis in Yemen and securing the discharge of an American imprisoned in Russia in addition to an Israeli American hostage held by Hamas. Hostage households in Israel have additionally given Witkoff a variety of credit score for the eye he’s given to them and the mission of bringing their family members residence from Gaza.
In a latest assembly, Witkoff reportedly informed hostage households that he’s engaged on a plan to finish the warfare in Gaza and facilitate the return of all hostages. However provided that Israel simply introduced plans to totally occupy the territory, it seems more and more unlikely that the battle will finish within the close to future—and there are considerations that increasing the Israeli army’s footprint will endanger these hostages nonetheless held alive by Hamas.
Witkoff was additionally tasked with main nuclear talks with Iran. Within the midst of these discussions, Israel launched a 12-day warfare in opposition to Iran that culminated with the USA bombing key Iranian nuclear websites. There’s nonetheless no nuclear settlement, and it’s up within the air whether or not Tehran will reenter talks with Washington.
In over his head? Witkoff’s function within the Trump administration is unorthodox for quite a few causes, together with the truth that his background is in actual property and he has no prior expertise in authorities or diplomacy.
Critics of Witkoff have warned that he’s in over his head and has been given duty over sophisticated points that may be higher dealt with by profession diplomats and consultants. They’ve emphasised that Witkoff seems too simply manipulated by Putin particularly, and raised alarm over the Trump envoy echoing the Kremlin’s speaking factors.
However Trump, who’s embraced a transactional method to overseas affairs, views Witkoff as a talented dealmaker. The president’s reliance on Witkoff is indicative of his tendency to worth loyalty over experience, in addition to his willingness to interrupt from custom in Washington.
Nonetheless, given Trump’s mercurial nature—and his historical past of falling out with high aides—it’s laborious not to wonder if the president will develop impatient with the dearth of progress Witkoff has made on a number of the greater points the administration is prioritizing, particularly a Russia-Ukraine deal.
“The strain’s been on President Putin for some time now. President Trump is making an attempt to ratchet that up … however that is now Witkoff’s fifth journey to Moscow, and I feel the strain is on Witkoff as effectively to come back again with one thing apart from an empty hand,” Torrey Taussig, a senior fellow on the Atlantic Council, informed SitRep.
Dame Stella Rimington, the primary lady to guide the British intelligence company MI5, died on Sunday, the company introduced. She was 90.
Rimington first joined the company in 1969 and served as its director-general from 1992 to 1996 earlier than retiring. As a number of obituaries famous, she was extensively thought of to be the inspiration for the character M—performed by Dame Judi Dench—within the James Bond movies.
“As the primary avowed feminine head of any intelligence company on this planet, Dame Stella broke by way of long-standing boundaries and was a visual instance of the significance of variety in management,” Ken McCallum, the present MI5 director-general, mentioned in a press release.
What ought to be excessive in your radar, if it isn’t already.
Netanyahu’s Gaza takeover ambitions. Regardless of quickly rising world outrage at Israel’s warfare in Gaza and strain over what the United Nations describes as “mounting proof of famine and widespread hunger,” Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu confirmed on Thursday that his authorities plans to take over the territory completely.
“We intend to, to be able to guarantee our safety, take away Hamas there, allow the inhabitants to be freed from Gaza, and to move it to civilian governance that’s not Hamas and never anybody advocating the destruction of Israel,” Netanyahu mentioned in an interview with Fox Information.
The Israeli army has mentioned it already controls about 75 % of Gaza’s territory, with most of Gaza’s 2 million residents clustered into the remaining 25 %.
Netanyahu’s takeover plan is unpopular even inside Israel, with the nation’s army chief in addition to Israeli opposition chief Yair Lapid warning in opposition to it, nevertheless it has broad help among the many far-right Israeli political events holding Netanyahu’s coalition authorities collectively.
Iran sanctions replace. America slapped new sanctions on Iran for the second time in two weeks, this time concentrating on the nation’s monetary sector. The U.S. Treasury Division’s Workplace of Overseas Belongings Management (OFAC) on Thursday introduced that it was sanctioning 18 Iranian entities that “play pivotal roles within the Iranian regime’s efforts to generate income and circumvent U.S. sanctions.”
Foremost amongst these is the RUNC Change System Firm, which OFAC mentioned helped develop the nation’s worldwide financial institution messaging system that the Iranian regime makes use of to commerce outdoors its borders. The division additionally sanctioned three of RUNC’s seniormost leaders.
Different sanctioned entities embrace an offshore financial institution situated off Iran’s southern coast within the Persian Gulf and a monetary software program firm that the Trump administration accused of working with the Iranian authorities to “develop surveillance applied sciences for the Iranian police state.”
Final week, the Treasury Division imposed what it referred to as the “largest” sanctions on Iran since 2018, concentrating on an Iranian transport community vital to the nation’s oil exports.
Chip tariffs. Trump dropped yet one more commerce bombshell on Wednesday, telling reporters on the White Home that his administration deliberate to impose a “tariff of roughly 100% on chips and semiconductors.”
He added one vital caveat, nevertheless, with an acknowledgment to Apple CEO Tim Prepare dinner, who was standing subsequent to him, to announce the corporate’s new $100 billion funding in the USA. (Prepare dinner additionally gifted Trump a Kentucky-made glass trophy bearing the Apple emblem atop a base made out of pure gold.)
“However the excellent news for firms like Apple is when you’re constructing in the USA, or have with out query dedicated to construct in the USA, there will probably be no cost,” Trump added. It isn’t but clear to what extent Trump’s assertion is official coverage, or when the tariff on semiconductors will go into impact, although an announcement might reportedly come as quickly as subsequent week.
Household and mates of Palestinian activist Awdah Hathaleen carry his physique to the cemetery throughout his funeral in Umm al-Kheir, West Financial institution, on Aug. 7.Tamir Kalifa/Getty Pictures
“Our effort is to obviously notice that commerce is commerce and different discussions are different discussions. We now have no intention to pause different features of the connection,” a senior Indian official informed reporters (together with your SitRep co-author) in Washington, D.C., on Thursday, addressing Trump’s determination to lift complete U.S. tariffs on Indian items to 50 % within the coming weeks, partly over India’s continued purchases of Russian oil.
The commerce rupture is a significant downer in what has in any other case been a reasonably robust bilateral partnership for over twenty years throughout a number of administrations on either side, and New Delhi seems eager to emphasize that issues are in any other case hunky-dory with regards to areas equivalent to protection and expertise. “The connection in all different areas of cooperation continues apace,” the official mentioned.
Tuesday, Aug. 12: Trump’s 90-day pause of upper tariffs on Chinese language items expires. The 2 sides agreed to maintain discussing an extra extension throughout their bilateral commerce assembly in Stockholm final month, nevertheless it hasn’t been formally confirmed but.
We’re additionally looking forward to a doable assembly between Trump and Putin, which might happen someday subsequent week.
“These instruments function a deterrent to forestall different nations from utilizing sure organic brokers.”
—Chris Meekins, a well being official within the first Trump administration, talking out in opposition to present Well being Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s determination to finish $500 million price of U.S. authorities investments in mRNA vaccines, calling it a “nationwide safety vulnerability.”
