When describing U.S. President Donald Trump’s governing type, and significantly his relationships with different international locations, two phrases have a tendency to return up steadily: “mercurial” and “transactional.”
The latter fits a number of U.S. allies, companions, and even adversaries simply high quality, whereas the previous has buffeted even a few of Washington’s closest and most enduring partnerships over the previous yr.
In analyzing which international locations have benefited probably the most and least from the second Trump administration, we deliberately excluded the events to the 2 largest conflicts that it’s making an attempt to mediate—one between Israel and Hamas, the opposite between Russia and Ukraine. Each of these conflicts stay largely unresolved (regardless of the previous pair agreeing to a cease-fire in October), and Trump’s mercuriality has seen his positions on these conflicts fluctuate over the previous yr.
With that stated, listed here are 5 international locations which have performed the Trump sport most efficiently, in addition to 5 others which have discovered themselves at a loss.
WINNERS
China
U.S. President Donald Trump (left) and Chinese language President Xi Jinping shake arms after their talks in Busan, South Korea, on Oct. 30.Andrew Caballero-Reynolds/AFP by way of Getty Photos
It might sound unusual to incorporate the USA’ largest adversary and peer competitor within the winner column, nevertheless it’s arduous to argue that China has suffered considerably throughout Trump’s second administration—significantly compared to the bruising commerce battle and know-how curbs of his first one, an method that was continued and even expanded by the Biden administration.
A few of these know-how curbs—together with the sale of semiconductor chips to China and a proposed U.S. ban on Chinese language-owned tech platform TikTok—now look like up for debate, if not outright relaxed.
Trump did dramatically escalate tariffs on Chinese language exports to the USA early in his time period, however he de-escalated them equally as quick following an October assembly with Chinese language President Xi Jinping in South Korea. That assembly yielded a commerce truce that was largely seen as barely extra favorable to China, which has used its monumental leverage over important minerals and uncommon earths to get Trump to again down.
Trump’s new Nationwide Safety Technique didn’t cede as a lot floor on Taiwan as China may need hoped and Washington’s China hawks may need feared, however the technique’s emphasis on “state sovereignty” and recognition of “international locations whose governing programs and societies differ from ours” portend a realism that Beijing is prone to welcome.—Rishi Iyengar
Saudi Arabia
Trump greets Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman on the South Garden of the White Home in Washington on Nov. 18.Brendan Smialowski/AFP by way of Getty Photos
Trump has lengthy made his affinity for Saudi Arabia clear, maybe most notably by making it the vacation spot of his first abroad presidential journey throughout each his first and second phrases in workplace.
Washington and Riyadh now look like nearer than ever. In November, Trump rolled out the purple carpet—actually—for Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman in a fanfare-laden go to that produced a flurry of offers geared toward binding the 2 international locations’ economies collectively.
The White Home has now designated Saudi Arabia as a main non-NATO ally—which boosts protection cooperation, albeit and not using a safety assure—and superior plans to promote F-35 jets to the nation. The 2 nations additionally plan to be a part of forces in different sectors, with expanded cooperation on synthetic intelligence, nuclear power, and important minerals. “A stronger and extra succesful alliance will advance the pursuits of each international locations, and it’ll serve the very best curiosity of peace,” Trump declared.—Christina Lu
Syria
Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa greets folks exterior the White Home after assembly with Trump on Nov. 10.Eypress by way of Reuters Join
Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa turned the primary Syrian head of state in practically eight a long time to go to the White Home when Trump welcomed him there in November, underlining a exceptional turnaround for the previous al Qaeda militant who had a $10 million U.S. bounty on his head till late 2024.
However Sharaa’s ascendancy following the ousting of Syrian dictator Bashar al-Assad goes past optics—he efficiently lobbied Trump to take away most U.S. sanctions on Syria throughout that go to, with Congress voting in December to repeal laws that saved some sanctions in place.
Whereas tensions between Syria and Israel stay, there may be each indication that the Syrian authorities retains Trump’s backing. “It is extremely vital that Israel preserve a powerful and true dialogue with Syria, and that nothing takes place that can intervene with Syria’s evolution right into a affluent State,” Trump posted on Fact Social on Dec. 1. “The brand new President of Syria, Ahmed al-Sharaa, is working diligently to ensure good issues occur, and that each Syria and Israel may have a protracted and affluent relationship collectively.”
Trump continued to reward Sharaa even because the U.S. navy struck a number of Islamic State targets in Syria on Dec. 19 in retaliation for an assault that killed two U.S. troopers days earlier, posting on Fact Social that the Syrian president was “totally in assist” of the strikes and “working very arduous to deliver Greatness again to Syria.”—Rishi Iyengar
Argentina
Trump greets Argentine President Javier Milei on the White Home on Oct. 14.Andrew Caballero-Reynolds/AFP by way of Getty Photos
Trump has by no means been shy about his assist for Argentine President Javier Milei. He has hailed Milei, a political ally, as his “favourite president” and “MAGA all the best way.” “I like him as a result of he loves Trump,” Trump stated in 2024.
Their allegiance runs so deep that, when Argentines went to the polls in October to vote within the nation’s midterm elections, Trump publicly endorsed Milei—after which hinged a whopping $20 billion bailout for the nation on his electoral success. “If he doesn’t win, we’re gone,” Trump stated.
Milei did win. However Trump’s deliberate $20 billion lifeline sparked substantial blowback in Washington from each sides of the aisle, and financial consultants questioned the payoff of the White Home’s technique. Possibly that may assist clarify why U.S. banks have now shelved the $20 billion plan and are as an alternative mulling a smaller and extra short-term deal, the Wall Road Journal reported.—Christina Lu
Pakistan
U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio (proper) greets Pakistan Military chief Asim Munir and Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif within the Oval Workplace of the White Home on Sept. 25.Andrew Harnik/Getty Photos
Throughout his first time period in workplace, Trump slammed Pakistan and its leaders for “lies & deceit,” calling them out for giving “secure haven to the terrorists we hunt in Afghanistan, with little assist” and suspending most U.S. navy assist to the nation.
Weeks into his second time period, Pakistan’s function in arresting the mastermind of a terror assault in Afghanistan gave Trump an early win and supplied Islamabad an in with the brand new U.S. president. Flattery, dialogue, and offers—on all the pieces from cryptocurrency, to important minerals, to the Nobel Peace Prize—have adopted, helped alongside by Trump’s private affinity for Pakistan’s omnipotent navy chief, Asim Munir.
“Our relationship seems good, nearly as good because it has ever been,” Pakistan’s ambassador to Washington, Rizwan Saeed Sheikh, advised International Coverage earlier this yr. “We’ve to make good on it.”—Rishi Iyengar
LOSERS
Venezuela
U.S. Protection Secretary Pete Hegseth speaks alongside Trump throughout a cupboard assembly on the White Home on Dec. 2.Chip Somodevilla/Getty Photos
With regards to bilateral relations with the USA, it doesn’t get a lot worse than U.S. navy strikes on boats off one’s northern coast, the opportunity of land strikes, and the specter of regime change. But for months, that’s precisely what Venezuela and its controversial president, Nicolás Maduro, have confronted from the Trump administration.
Venezuela has been the most important goal of Trump’s ire on the subject of what his administration has labeled “narcoterrorists,” with Trump accusing Maduro of conspiring with cartels to flood the USA with medication—at the same time as Trump pardoned a former Latin American chief who was really convicted of drug trafficking.
U.S. Protection Secretary Pete Hegseth—going through uncomfortable questions and criticism from U.S. lawmakers over the legality of the navy’s actions close to Venezuela—has remained defiant. “These narcoterrorists are the al Qaeda of our hemisphere, and we’re looking them with the identical sophistication and precision that we hunted al Qaeda,” he stated in December.—Rishi Iyengar
Iran
Smoke billows following an explosion in central Tehran on June 15.Atta Kenare/AFP by way of Getty Photos
Iran’s costly and layered deterrence technique, which it spent a long time setting up, was dealt a devastating blow this summer time. Over 12 days of bombing in June, an Israeli navy offensive crippled Iran’s air defenses and its ballistic missile infrastructure. Nevertheless it was the temporary entrance of the U.S. navy on June 22 within the type of B-2 bombers dropping so-called “bunker-buster” bombs on three of Iran’s key nuclear services that’s thought to have actually set again Iran’s final deterrence card. And whereas it seems seemingly that Tehran smuggled out some enriched uranium forward of time and Iranian scientists retain the technical experience to theoretically rebuild, it must be some years earlier than Iran can reclaim its standing as a nuclear threshold state. That’s, if the Iranian regime makes the selection to take action.
U.S. regional insurance policies will seemingly affect Tehran’s nuclear strategic calculus. Different actions by the Trump administration have weakened Iran’s regional place. They embody the elevation of Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa, who, only a yr in the past, toppled the regime of Bashar al-Assad, an in depth ally of Iran; the continuing Israel-U.S. push for Lebanon-based Hezbollah to disarm; and a raft of latest U.S. sanctions imposed this yr on Iran’s oil smuggling community and illicit finance sector. These sanctions have tightened the monetary stranglehold on the Iranian regime, which has restricted choices to deal with sky-high public discontent.—Rachel Oswald
South Africa
Trump reveals photos as he meets with South African President Cyril Ramaphosa within the Oval Workplace of the White Home on Might 21.Jim Watson/AFP by way of Getty Photos
The South African authorities has taken it on the chin and the nostril this yr from the Trump administration. There are a number of elements driving the White Home’s animus towards Africa’s largest economic system, a few of that are made up and a few of that are actual.
Trump has pushed the false accusation that Afrikaners, the white descendants of European colonizers of South Africa, are experiencing a genocide and has approved blanket refugee standing for them. However different disagreements with the Trump administration are primarily based in actual fact, reminiscent of South African authorities insurance policies geared toward decreasing long-standing racial inequality, and Pretoria bringing a genocide case in opposition to Israel on the Worldwide Courtroom of Justice over the therapy of Palestinians within the Gaza Strip. And lots of U.S. officers are pissed off with South Africa’s continued equivocation on Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and its pleasant relations with Iran.
Trump has responded to those grievances by reducing a whole bunch of thousands and thousands of {dollars} in international assist to South Africa, a lot of which went to the nation’s struggle in opposition to HIV/AIDS. The U.S. president additionally imposed 30 % tariffs on South African imports, and he has stated that South Africa will likely be unwelcome on the G-20 summit that the USA is internet hosting in Florida subsequent December.—Rachel Oswald
Canada
Trump steps off Air Power One upon arrival at Calgary Worldwide Airport in Alberta, Canada, on June 15, earlier than the beginning of the G-7 summit.Brendan Smialowski/AFP by way of Getty Photos
Washington’s relationship with Ottawa plunged to a cold nadir earlier this yr after Trump repeatedly threatened to annex the USA’ northern neighbor and make it the 51st state.
The Trump administration now not seems to be as fixated on such territorial enlargement. Nevertheless it has continued to be deeply aggressive towards one in all its largest buying and selling companions, which stays topic to steep U.S. tariffs on a variety of sectors. Trump has pointed to Ottawa’s supposed function within the fentanyl commerce to the USA—claims that aren’t supported by knowledge from U.S. Customs and Border Safety—and commerce negotiations between the 2 international locations have collapsed.
The U.S. ambassador to Canada, Pete Hoekstra, has employed Trump’s belligerent rhetoric, as nicely. In October, he reportedly burst into an “expletive-laced tirade” in opposition to Ontario’s commerce consultant, Canadian media reported.
And in November, U.S. Vice President J.D. Vance lambasted Canada’s political leaders in a publish on X, accusing them of harming their nation’s residing requirements by selling variety via what he known as “immigration madness.”—Christina Lu
India
Trump and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi arrive to carry a joint press convention within the East Room of the White Home on Feb. 13.Andrew Caballero-Reynolds/AFP by way of Getty Photos
Pakistan’s ascendancy in Trump’s eyes is made all of the extra exceptional by the truth that it has coincided with U.S. relations with its archrival India falling to their lowest ebb in additional than 20 years.
Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi—whom Trump has repeatedly known as a “nice good friend” and established shut ties with of their respective first phrases—was one of many first world leaders to go to Washington after Trump obtained reelected, and it appeared that they might decide up the place they left off. However India’s refusal to present Trump credit score for brokering a cease-fire with Pakistan after a quick armed battle between the 2 neighbors in Might, together with Trump’s purported frustration over India’s commerce insurance policies and its purchases of Russian oil, have seen New Delhi hit with a number of the world’s highest Trump tariffs.
There are a number of indications that the basics of the U.S.-India relationship stay stable, although. Their two militaries lately signed a 10-year protection cooperation pact, and Trump’s new Nationwide Safety Technique calls on Washington to “proceed to enhance industrial (and different) relations with India.”
However as 50 % tariffs stay in place and a commerce deal stays elusive, those that take a look at the optics can not assist however concede that they don’t look good.—Rishi Iyengar
