The next is the transcript of an interview with Kevin Hassett, Nationwide Financial Council director, that aired on “Face the Nation with Margaret Brennan” on July 6, 2025.
WEIJA JIANG: We flip now to Kevin Hassett. He’s the director of the Nationwide Financial Council and one in every of President Trump’s high advisors. He is additionally very talked-about on that driveway the place I am often alongside a few dozen reporters. So, Kevin, thanks a lot to your time this morning. I need to begin with commerce, as a result of there is a large deadline arising on Wednesday. As you already know, that 90-day pause on reciprocal tariffs that the President introduced again in April is ready to finish. To this point, the US has introduced just a few offers; the UK, Vietnam, and also you’re inching nearer to a remaining settlement with China. Do you anticipate to get any extra offers executed with America’s largest buying and selling companions by Wednesday?
KEVIN HASSETT: Yeah. First, I do should take- take a pause and share your ideas and prayers with the individuals of Texas. It is an unbelievable, heartbreaking story, and Kristi Noem and the President have instructed the federal authorities to throw all the things they have at serving to the survivors and serving to clear up that place. So, anyway, I am actually heartbroken at this time to see these tales, and I need you to know that within the White Home, all people is placing each effort they’ll into serving to the individuals of Texas at this time. On commerce, there’s going to be fairly a bit of stories this week. And, I believe, the headline of the information is that there are going to be offers which can be finalized. There are a complete quantity that Jameson Greer has negotiated with overseas governments, after which they will be letters which can be despatched to international locations saying, this is how we expect it must go, as a result of the offers aren’t superior sufficient. And the headline goes to be that international locations are agreeing around the globe to open their markets as much as our merchandise, and to permit us to place some form of tariff on their merchandise once they come into the US. At precisely what the numbers will likely be, will likely be issues that you will discover out within the information this week,.
WEIJA JIANG: Kevin, you stated there are going to be offers. For these actually vital buying and selling companions, if there’s not a deal by Wednesday, is the President going to increase this pause?
KEVIN HASSETT: You already know, the USA is all the time prepared to speak to all people about all the things that is occurring on this planet. And there are deadlines, and there are issues which can be shut, and so possibly issues will push again the dead- previous the deadline, or possibly they want- in the long run, the President’s going to make that judgment.
WEIJA JIANG: And also you additionally talked about these letters that may begin going out tomorrow, in response to President Trump. He stated about 10 to 12 international locations will obtain them. Do you- are you able to inform us who’s going to get one and what they are saying?
KEVIN HASSETT: As a result of- as a result of, once more, the a part of the letter that might be occurring proper is that we’re near a deal, we’re not likely happy with the progress that we’re making on the deal, and so we’re saying, okay, high-quality, we’ll ship a letter, however possibly you get a deal on the final minute too. Till we see all the things that performs out, I believe that we have to simply maintain our fireplace and look ahead to the information this week.
WEIJA JIANG: Is it truthful to say that these notices are going to go to our smaller buying and selling companions, as you negotiate with our larger ones?
KEVIN HASSETT: I believe that it might be that it will be each. But additionally, do not forget, that when we’ve got nice commerce offers, our smaller buying and selling companions may grow to be a lot larger buying and selling companions. And that is, I believe, one of many explanation why international locations are racing to set offers up with us forward of the deadline.
WEIJA JIANG: I’ve to ask you concerning the deadlines, Kevin, to make these offers, since you simply talked about you are all the time open. The president stated there’s not likely any flexibility left between now and Wednesday. Lower than two weeks in the past, the Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent stated that offers could be wrapped up by Labor Day. So, I ponder, you already know, if- how can corporations plan if the purpose posts maintain shifting? How can international locations negotiate if they do not even understand how a lot time they’ve left?
KEVIN HASSETT: Proper. Properly, the tough outlines of the offers have gotten clear to all people, as a result of we’ve got some offers just like the UK, and the Vietnam deal which can be beginning to be, you already know, I suppose, tips for what would possibly occur. However, one of many issues that we’re seeing that is actually attention-grabbing to me, is that individuals are simply on-shoring manufacturing of the US at a file fee. As we have had file job creation, file capital spending, and that is even forward of the Massive, Stunning Invoice. And so, I believe what’s occurring is that individuals are responding to President Trump’s, you already know, potential threats to have excessive tariffs on international locations by shifting their exercise right here into the US, which is creating jobs, greater than 2 million jobs, since he took workplace, and elevating wages. You already know, wage progress is heading up in direction of the actually, actually excessive pinnacles that we noticed in 2017. And so, I believe there is a race proper now to get exercise into the US. And, partially, that race has been kicked off by President Trump.
WEIJA JIANG: I bear in mind after these reciprocal tariffs had been introduced, you instructed me that there have been about 15 offers that international locations had been bringing to the President. How shut, in case you may give us any quantity in any respect, what quantity are we going to see this week?
KEVIN HASSETT: Yeah, you may have- you may should get that from Jameson and the President. I believe that, you already know, we have seen a number of offers which have been finalized by our negotiators, after which the President finds issues that would make them higher. And so, it’s- I am not going to get forward of the President on the variety of offers.
WEIJA JIANG: Okay, thanks, Kevin. We’ll look out for that. I need to transfer now to the One Massive, Stunning Invoice that, after all, the President signed into legislation on Independence Day. You’ve gotten it, and now it’s important to pay for it. And there is a consensus that this invoice provides tremendously to the deficit. I do know that you’re so accustomed to these numbers. The Yale Price range Lab estimates it would add $3 trillion to the debt. The Tax Basis says this tax portion of the invoice may additionally add $3 trillion to the deficit. The Committee for a Accountable Federal Price range, which elements in curiosity on the debt, says it may add as much as $5 trillion over the following decade. And on this very program, even Speaker Johnson answered within the affirmative when requested if this invoice would add over $4 trillion to the deficit. I do know that the administration says the invoice will really shrink the deficit by $1.5 trillion. Assist me perceive why there’s such a drastic distinction between your quantity and all these others.
KEVIN HASSETT: Properly- effectively, to start with, let’s do not forget that science will not be democracy. Fact will not be democracy. Our estimates are based mostly on modeling that we used final time, once I was Chairman of the Council of Financial Advisers to say what would occur if we had a invoice, how a lot progress we’d get. And we stated, and we had been criticized soundly, that we’d get 3% progress. And we even had the actually technical macroeconomic fashions that stated that we’d get 3% progress. We run the identical fashions by means of this tax invoice, it is even higher. And what we’re seeing is that in case you get 3% progress once more, then that is $4 trillion extra in income than the CBO and these different our bodies are giving us credit score for. They’ve been mistaken up to now, and so they’re being mistaken once more, in our perception. However, the factor that disappoints me is that if I put out a mannequin and I say, hey, this is what is going on to occur, we’ll get 3% progress. After which it seems it is 1.5% progress, then, as an educational economist, as a scientist, then it is my obligation to say, what did I get mistaken? What did my mannequin miss? These individuals aren’t doing that. And that is the factor that I discover disappointing, as a result of we put peer-reviewed educational stuff on the desk, stated we’ll get that 3% progress, after which we obtained it proper final time, and we consider we’ll get it proper this time. However, in case you suppose that 1.8% progress is what is going on to occur over the following 10 years, then you must agree with the CBO quantity. However, there’s one other a part of the CBO quantity that you want to fear about. And that’s that if we do not cross the invoice, that it is the largest tax hike in historical past. And with that large tax hike, that after all, we’d have a recession. The CEA says that we would have a few 4% drop in GDP and lose 9 million jobs. If we had a 4% drop in GDP and we misplaced 9 million jobs, what would occur to the deficit? And so, I do not suppose that the CBO has a really robust file. I do not suppose these locations have a really robust file. And what they should do is get again to the fundamentals of macroeconomic fashions. There is a actually well-known macroeconomist at Harvard named Jim Inventory. They need to return and skim all the things Jim Inventory has written for the final 15 years, and fold these into their fashions, after which possibly we may discuss.
WEIJA JIANG: I need to discuss too, Kevin, about one other quantity that I do know you and the President disagree with, however that Democrats and plenty of Republicans are nervous about, and that is the CBO’s projection that as many as 12 million Individuals may lose Medicaid protection due to this legislation. What’s the NEC’s estimate for a way many individuals may lose protection?
KEVIN HASSETT: Properly- effectively, yeah. Let’s- let’s unbundle that slightly bit. As a result of, first, on the CBO protection, so what are we doing? So, what we’re doing is we’re asking for a piece requirement. However, the work requirement is that you want to be on the lookout for work, and even doing volunteer work, and also you needn’t do it till your children are 14 or older. And so, the concept that is going to trigger an enormous hemorrhaging in availability of insurance coverage, does not make quite a lot of sense to us. After which, in case you have a look at the CBO numbers, in case you have a look at the massive numbers, they are saying that individuals are going to lose insurance coverage. About 5 million of these are individuals who produce other insurance coverage. They’re individuals who have two sorts of insurance coverage. And so, subsequently, in the event that they lose one, they’re nonetheless insured. And so, the CBO numbers on that aspect do not make any sense to us in any respect. However, on the opposite aspect, return to 2017 after we had work necessities for Obamacare, they stated that we lose about 4 million insured between 2017 and 2019, and about double that over the following 10 years. And, actually, the variety of insured went up. It went up fairly a bit, by greater than 10 million over these two years, as a result of the underside line is, one of the best ways to get insurance coverage is to get a job. And we have a Massive, Stunning Invoice that is going to create quite a lot of job creation and quite a lot of insurance coverage, and the CBO is simply not accounting for that. And once more, they want to return and have a look at all of the issues that they obtained mistaken. You understand that they are underestimating Medicaid spending by 20%. They need to look again in any respect the issues they obtained mistaken, and clarify what they will do to get it proper sooner or later, and to do a greater job. And in the event that they do this, we’ll take them extra critically. However proper now, I do not suppose any severe thinker may take them critically, as a result of they’ve executed so mistaken, and mistaken for therefore lengthy. Even back- in case you return to when President Obama handed Obamacare, they obtained each single quantity there mistaken about how many individuals would get personal insurance coverage and the way few individuals would get Medicaid, and so forth. And so, their file on this modeling house is about as unhealthy because it’s doable to be. Actually, you would, form of, roll the roulette wheel and provide you with a greater set of numbers, higher historical past, monitor file than CBO.
WEIJA JIANG: Kevin, what concerning the enhanced subsidies? Is that quantity mistaken too? That the ACA permits about $705 for individuals to assist pay for his or her medical health insurance. That does not sound just like the waste, fraud, and abuse that I do know you and the President have talked about eliminating. That simply feels like individuals who can’t afford protection, and now it’ll be much more so with the subsidies gone.
KEVIN HASSETT: Proper. Properly- effectively, in case you’re- in case you’re the- the change within the tax on the suppliers, which is one thing that has been a key speaking level for the Democrats, they are saying that that is going to shut down rural hospitals. What has occurred is that, moderately than let the states- the states have this sport the place they offer a greenback to a hospital after which the federal authorities matches the greenback, after which the state taxes among the greenback away. In different phrases, that we’ve got an settlement with the states that they will match, however then they’ve this they’ve this trick the place they tax the hospitals after they offer them the cash, so actually, it is the federal authorities giving them the cash. And that is why we have been overspending Medicaid by 20% since this trick began occurring. And so, what we have executed is that we have put a haircut on that. However, we have additionally put $50 billion right into a belief fund to make it possible for the agricultural hospitals are there to deal with the sick. So, I believe it is a prudent kind. It is sound budgetary politics. And I believe that no one’s going to lose their insurance coverage.
WEIJA JIANG: Kevin Hassett, we are going to watch for a way that ages. Thanks very a lot. Actually respect —
KEVIN HASSETT: – And if I get it mistaken, we’ll test, and we’ll discuss why I obtained it mistaken. I promise.
WEIJA JIANG: Thanks. We’ll have you ever again. Thanks very a lot, Kevin.
